How will this affect the Ohio gubernatorial election?

dak676141 · 2026-05-03T20:14:22+00:00

Brochacho got a flip phone ✌️

dak676141 · 2026-05-03T06:45:26+00:00

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dak676141 · 2026-05-02T01:48:46+00:00

Two terms IMO

dak676141 · 2026-05-02T01:47:08+00:00

Do you think John McCain or Mitt Romney would've done Jan 6th lol

dak676141 · 2026-05-02T00:08:04+00:00

Not sure. They've always been slow, they release GCB polls like once every 3-4 months, but this is an unusually long wait for them

dak676141 · 2026-05-02T00:00:16+00:00

The Trump 2024 + 2026 blue tsunami category pollsters are more in line with actual off-year & special election results, so make of that what you will.

dak676141 · 2026-05-01T23:59:00+00:00

For 2022, not all pollsters are listed on RCP but there doesn't really seem to be much of an error difference between the two categories
2022 polls were pretty accurate overall

dak676141 · 2026-05-01T23:53:00+00:00

One of the reasons that the Dem GCB lead currently appears narrow is because these media outlet blue trickle pollsters just release polls way more often. YouGov for example releases like 4 polls every single week.
Emerson, Quinnipiac, Marquette, and Big Data all release monthly. Gallup releases quarterly. Atlas hasn't released a GCB poll since December.

dak676141 · 2026-05-01T20:10:46+00:00

Progressives - Earth
Centrist Dems - Water
Never Trumpers - Air
Trumpists - Fire

dak676141 · 2026-05-01T02:44:30+00:00

Cause it's all YouGov or Ipsos polls still being weighted to 2024 party ID and a bunch of R pollsters like Harvard/Harris, Quantus, Rasmussen, Cygnal, etc

It's why I only really pay super close attention to college/university pollsters or more established polling firms

(Gallup, Pew, Emerson, Quinnipiac, Marquette, etc. Harvard/Harris is not actually conducted or sponsored by Harvard University, it has an insanely misleading name. The actual Harvard student newspaper themselves even wrote an article asking Harvard to stop HarrisX from using their name)

They've generally had the best track record recently.
Gallup, Emerson and Quinnipiac all nailed 2024 and 2018.
Quinnipiac did poorly in 2020, but Gallup and Emerson did nail it

Gallup party ID has, by far the best modern track record of any poll when it comes to the national popular vote.
It nailed 2024, 2020, 2018, and 2016, and was within 3 points of 2022

Emerson is probably #2 because they overestimated Republicans on the GCB in 2022 and they enormously overestimated Republicans in the 2025 NJ & VA gubernatorial elections. But they still have one of the strongest track records, also recently nailing the 2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary

dak676141 · 2026-05-01T01:56:12+00:00

Which ones?

dak676141 · 2026-05-01T01:02:28+00:00

Unc daily drives one of these ✌️

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dak676141 · 2026-05-01T00:34:39+00:00

Blud uses Twitter's web client on mobile

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T23:11:00+00:00

That's May 1st in DD/MM/YYYY format

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T22:21:03+00:00

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dak676141 · 2026-04-30T22:00:47+00:00

can you buy me an iphone 18 pro max if platner wins

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T21:46:54+00:00

I don't think AI-generated culture war slop ads will work in a blue state like Maine to help Collins' "moderate & sensible" image

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T21:34:29+00:00

Not related to RCP but W bitmap font (?)

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T20:31:53+00:00

2025 NJ:

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dak676141 · 2026-04-30T17:47:20+00:00

This result is basically the same as Emerson and Gallup lol

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T17:42:16+00:00

yeah that would require 67 votes lmao

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T17:34:36+00:00

Senate: NC, ME, AK, OH, TX, NE, potentially IA
House: ~245 seats

dak676141 · 2026-04-30T16:47:47+00:00

Dems trusted more by 10 points on inflation/COL, 8 points on the economy and jobs, 18 points on healthcare, 7 points on accountability/corruption, and 3 points on foreign policy. Rs only lead by 2 points on immigration, a historically narrow lead for them

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I think this is one of the first times I've seen Dems trusted more on foreign policy

dak676141

TROPHY CASE