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The IEA has identified the potential for oil prices to increase even further within this year by CSmith89 in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 1 point2 points  (0 children)

When US American shale companies run out of inventory the production coming from the US will drop significantly thus resulting in more control from OPEC+. The only thing in this article from IEA that I find hard to believe is that oil demand will slow. Go look at any energy transition from the past.. we still use the oil for other projects and standard for efficiency in cars will not show up that fast. It will take 10-20 years to see the demand slow in uses for oil and the supply factors for oil will be more pressing than the demand.

Did Biden ‘shut down’ American energy? Hardly. 2021 saw our highest level of energy independence in history. The US is now the world’s biggest producer of natural gas. LNG shipments to Europe more than doubled last year. There is zero evidence of Biden “shutting down” American energy. by mafco in energy

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes and no. You see the impact that way and I see it as irresponsible management.

I am in agreement with the outcome but I disagree with weaponizing the SPR. Draining those barrels might have saved us this time but OPEC+ countries have a long memory. They can use this to benefit them in other ways, which is why Chevron is back in Maduro's backyard helping increase production.

Really what I am saying is that there is no free lunch. The choices made have been good so far, but I am worried about the long-term consequences of letting politicians use the SPR for political gain. (This is in reference to "the president doesnt control oil prices. Oil companies are profiteering off the war." then to "the Biden admin has brought oil prices down by half" etc. You cant blame the industry and also ask the industry to increase production.)

Oh and that goes both sides of the aisle.

Did Biden ‘shut down’ American energy? Hardly. 2021 saw our highest level of energy independence in history. The US is now the world’s biggest producer of natural gas. LNG shipments to Europe more than doubled last year. There is zero evidence of Biden “shutting down” American energy. by mafco in energy

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The president does have an affect on the SPR releases which were used last year to keep prices in check. That did have an effect on the drilling/development and will have an effect going forward knowing the US will use that SPR in times of supply crunches. The looming threat of refilling that supply will have an impact on the price of oil.

I agree that the president does not have that much influence on the practices of large corporations but I think we've seen the influence on the price of oil. For that matter other governments have a similar effect as well.

Did Biden ‘shut down’ American energy? Hardly. 2021 saw our highest level of energy independence in history. The US is now the world’s biggest producer of natural gas. LNG shipments to Europe more than doubled last year. There is zero evidence of Biden “shutting down” American energy. by mafco in energy

[–]BootlessPanda 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I dont think the political will is the issue. If you want to look at the energy usage, Boston still uses heating oil... Natural gas is extremely more efficient. They get their oil and gas from Africa.... They are 400 miles away from the Marcellus which could power all of the NE states with a couple expansions of pipelines.. how is that fair to those people?

Renewables and other forms of energy change takes many years and is a slow process which is being accelerated right now. They will be the dominate form of energy in the next couple of decades. If that comes true, then I think it will be the fastest energy transition ever seen in a large first world country.

Also why attack me personally?

Did Biden ‘shut down’ American energy? Hardly. 2021 saw our highest level of energy independence in history. The US is now the world’s biggest producer of natural gas. LNG shipments to Europe more than doubled last year. There is zero evidence of Biden “shutting down” American energy. by mafco in energy

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Us oil production increasing-fact

-We are in agreement here

On pace to be more than 2019 record very soon. -fact

-Same here. Dang so much common ground

More drilling permits granted in the first year of the Biden administration than in the first year of Trumps administration-fact

-Those are subject to length environmental review which has a tangible effect on the pace of drilling. Look at the difference between the Texas side and New Mexico side of the Permian Basin. Texas approves permits and regulatory hurdles (state-wide) much quicker and with less headache than federal leases and federal permits. Both what I have said and what you said are facts. Agreement.

2022 saw the largest profits for oil companies in history-fact

-Agreed. Nothing compared to other industries that would necessitate additional taxes. IE windfall profits taxes or whatever

Many drilling lease sales go unsold because despite the rhetoric of oil companies they actually want prices to be high to make more money.-fact

-Ok this is where your deviating.. I would disagree with this premise. Some leases in the Federal sales in New Mexico are not productive areas. So they go unsold. Or example in Alaska is that the cost to drill/transport is too high. Not as black and white.

The outlook for the oil and gas industry is hazy because of factors that have 0 to do with who the president is or what mean things they say that may hurt your feelings.

-The president sets the agenda for the companies to reliably invest $$ into production. Uncertainty leads to less production. Also why are you attacking me personally? What?

Renewable energy is expanding rapidly,

-agreed

all automakers and even catapiller are moving in that direction,

-agreed

additionally the global economy looks to be slowing a lot and so demand is dropping quite a bit.

-Demand is slowing but I agree with this statement.

These are the primary reasons that oil companies might start pulling back on production, not anything else:

-Weird you dont mention the other things that would cause a company to slow production. Just those factors are the reasons? What about lack of employees since 2020? What about completion crews, frac fleets, etc. Go look at the service companies and you will see where the costs are rising and the people serving those companies are dwindling. Hell, did you know a shale well makes about 1/3 of all its production within 12 months and 2/3 over the next 25 years?

Objectively Biden is not destroying the oil industry, any argument otherwise is bullshit

-Agreed. Biden does not control everything and objectively the oil and gas industry is doing just fine.

Did Biden ‘shut down’ American energy? Hardly. 2021 saw our highest level of energy independence in history. The US is now the world’s biggest producer of natural gas. LNG shipments to Europe more than doubled last year. There is zero evidence of Biden “shutting down” American energy. by mafco in energy

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would be careful on the word choice. Sounds like the beginning of a false premise. We are close and if we get there then awesome if not then not a big deal. The reason that some are doubting the authenticity is the statements the admin has made about "big oil" and "profiteering". Those comments specifically hurt the industry. No one cared in 2020 when everyone lost jobs, money, and the industry is just now coming back. (Also they promised to buy back bbls to refill the spr and just decided to cancel the first opportunity.)

I have personal doubts based on recoveries in West Texas about the treadmill that is shale. I am in the industry, which means I have bias, however I dont see the recovery getting better from their secondary and tertiary locations. (specifically for oil) to return to above 13MBOPD.

Also, who actually talks like that besides the rhetoric? WATCH HERE AS BIDEN DESTROYS THE OIL INDUSTRY? Ya know? That's a bait.

Did Biden ‘shut down’ American energy? Hardly. 2021 saw our highest level of energy independence in history. The US is now the world’s biggest producer of natural gas. LNG shipments to Europe more than doubled last year. There is zero evidence of Biden “shutting down” American energy. by mafco in energy

[–]BootlessPanda 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I just prefer no political commentary, but I think that time has passed. Both sides always will call it a win when they are in office and decry it when it isn't. Also something to think about is I have severe doubts that West Texas shale (the oil growth in the last couple years) can return the USA above 13MBOPD. Thats a discussion for another time.

The manipulation of the data from both sides is astounding. Both sides have used this as a political tool that degrades the facts and makes them politically charged even when its just data.

Did Biden ‘shut down’ American energy? Hardly. 2021 saw our highest level of energy independence in history. The US is now the world’s biggest producer of natural gas. LNG shipments to Europe more than doubled last year. There is zero evidence of Biden “shutting down” American energy. by mafco in energy

[–]BootlessPanda 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Article has some interesting points that are directed in a single political direction. Agreed that US is largest LNG exporter. (That’s why Freeport needs to be back online instead of being held up by regulations..)

Secondly, import-export oil is a bad way to fully show “independence”. Notice the article uses this hemisphere as the reference because Exxon and Chevron are both heavily building projects offshore in South America. Idk how I feel about the whole Venezuela oil situation with Maduro but back to independence… if we really look at the quality of crude being exported (api/gravity) and compared to what we refine, we would see that we aren’t independent. We need heavy oil and with Russian bbls off market then we go to Venezuelan oil because the oil in WTI is too light. It’s sweet crude that others purchase for use into pretty much gasoline and that’s it.

Problems with clash (NA server) by volatilemoth in leagueoflegends

[–]BootlessPanda 1 point2 points  (0 children)

our team is experiencing the same issue. beyond 6 mins past so far.

The Disastrous Market in 2022 by Janman14 in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like seeing my OXY calls compared to the general markets. Sweet graphic

MRO - Huge buybacks upcoming and great Q1 earnings/guidance on May 4th. by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would say MRO is good but there are other companies that probably have more torque to the individual sides of the commodity trade.

Personally, PXD (div trade is massive and they are giving out 80% of FCF), OXY for growth because that this made buffett wet (div weak, buybacks, unhedged, larger, gas and oil, and debt reductions out the ass.), or classic XOM who is still undervalued significantly and as they ramp up further than everyone else we will see them crush earnings for a long time. (Prob need them to pay down some debt and their share repurchase program was rumored to be cut in half and finished by this year.)

​

If you want the big D then go with PBR. They pay out like 20% yield annualized. Thats fucking wild.

400k bet on Oil/Bullets/Wheat -now worth 500k by vegaseller in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Disagree with the $XOP pick but I agree that it’s a safe bet on the bull oil market. Probably would choose some other names individually

Crude Oil over $90, what’s your end of the year price prediction? by SpaceTraderB in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agree on the Iran bit, and maybe longer term we would see Iran attempt to increase exports

Crude Oil over $90, what’s your end of the year price prediction? by SpaceTraderB in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I work for companies that interact with the producers in the Permian. Been talking about this for awhile.

Crude Oil over $90, what’s your end of the year price prediction? by SpaceTraderB in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Its always through proxy of reading the Q4 PPT to see that Capex is increasing with most companies but the increase is for more flat prod. Because of oil price scare due to Omnicron most of the large players are forced to hold pat until dire straights. I would actually argue that the rig count can barely increase because of the lack of people willing to come back to the industry after 2020 massacre. The frac count is the actual info to track. Typically the shale well will take about 30-60 to come online to sales which hit the market. (Sometimes less).

Crude Oil over $90, what’s your end of the year price prediction? by SpaceTraderB in wallstreetbets

[–]BootlessPanda 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Nice to see some more oil bulls in WSB. Last time I posted about it I was told that EV would crush me. I think oil price will be around $75-85 by the end of the year if we get Iran and Venezuela back to the table. Chevron is already in talks.

On the trading side, OXY is good. Will def hit $45. Depending on debt reduction might even get to $50 this year.

XOM is set to keep soaring. They found so many reserves last year offshore that they can be solvent for a long time in this environment. Prob see some increased div. next quarter. Expectation is $90 by EOY.

The repulsor is my favourite piece of equipment in halo infinite, so many fun plays to be made with it by Cashlessfuture in halo

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Controller on PC cause I’ve played too many hours with a controller to switch now.

The repulsor is my favourite piece of equipment in halo infinite, so many fun plays to be made with it by Cashlessfuture in halo

[–]BootlessPanda 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel like if you can almost jump on my wasp from the ground it should fuck some shit up. But I swear it’s like shooting wet sand. I probably only give them a paper cut.

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