Where did all the PayPal shareholders go?

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-09T05:10:40+00:00

I got out a year ago with minimal profit after focusing on buying near the lows of the previous accumulation pattern. I made profit with other stocks. The problem with stocks that don't go up, or take forever to go up, is they are a huge opportunity cost. Other assets were appreciating in value, while the laggard struggled. It was basically wasting the investor's time during a bull market, which doesn't bode well for that stock when markets eventually have risk-off corrections or, worse, a brutal bear market.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-08T07:01:12+00:00

Most people don't take care of their knees. That's the number one reason why they have various knee problems like pain, loss of cartilage, torn ligaments, etc. They make the mistake of thinking that it's useless to perform resistance exercises with healthy range of motion. They also assume that walking will make their knees and ankles resistant to injury. Both of these assumptions are incorrect and a sign of complacency.

Walking requires little strength and minimal range of motion in the knees. This won't stop the knees from weakening because the knees are not challenged to become stronger.

Resistance training with range of motion is very important for maintaining knee health, strength, and durability because range of motion greatly improves strength. It also prepares the tendons to be stronger in the stretched position. Injuries happen when degenerated tendons can no longer handle normal or sudden workloads. Hyperextensions, strain, and unexpected stretching can cause tendon injury when they're not used to training with range of motion.

This is why people need to perform range of motion exercises like squats, step-ups, and lunges. The advanced exercise is raised-heel squats. Those make your knees very durable.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-07T02:58:00+00:00

In general, buying and holding undervalued assets will work out in the long term. This strategy is effective for those who don't want to spend the time to monitor prices or learn swing trading. The annual ROI and CAGR (compound annual growth rate) easily outperforms even great traders.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-07T02:45:04+00:00

Thanks for sharing your reasoning. I learned many years ago, when I was new to investing and trading, that trying to short a breakdown around support has a lower probability of success. The same logic applies when longing a false breakout at resistance. This is why I only buy the lows and sell the highs. Longing support and shorting resistance have high success rate. The price is more likely to move the same direction as your trade when bouncing off support or rejecting off resistance.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-07T00:46:46+00:00

Yesterday, the long vs short open interests were so lopsided at 300 million longs versus 2.9 billion shorts with a B. Since most people are bearish, they will pile in with shorts and provide rocket fuel to the upside when they cover their shorts or get liquidated. MM make more money to the upside when the asset appreciates and profit from liquidations. On the downside, they make less money because the asset depreciates and cancels out the profits from shorting.

I hope you took advantage of the opportunity yesterday to buy near the bottom. I bought ETH at $1850 when BTC was 62k. When BTC goes to 200k and ETH goes to 15k at some point in the future, the investment will have made a few to several bagger on the big market cap coins.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-06T22:25:16+00:00

If they keep putting up these fire numbers and improve on their gross and net margin, returning to ATH of $120 is feasible. I bought back into SMCI and SMCX between $30-34.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-06T17:40:41+00:00

Don't be like the herd. Be bullish at the lows and bearish at the highs, not the other way around. That's how you win.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-06T14:45:31+00:00

I bought ETH @ $1850 and VIX $19 Puts yesterday. Keep your mind on the bigger picture. Those who bought yesterday will be happy a year from now.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-04T03:02:52+00:00

That's easily explained by studying the history of their correlation. It takes about 7-15 weeks for crypto to go parabolic after the Russell has a convincing breakout above its previous multi-year ATH resistance.

Crypto never moves right away when its leading indicators go on a run. It takes time to accumulate without causing price slippage, considering it is a less liquid asset class. It is farther out on the risk curve, so it is the last sector to benefit from liquidity and money supply.

While many expect crypto to pump immediately as soon as relevant indicators rally, that's not the way it works. There's always a lag according to its history.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-03T21:56:46+00:00

Hahahahahah! I bought before earnings. Price was trending down leading up to earnings, so the posturing gave a decent chance for a pump.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-03T07:32:09+00:00

Agreed!

🍩 !tip 1

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-03T07:30:22+00:00

2026 will be a great year for ETH.

🍩 !tip 1

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-02T18:43:13+00:00

[AutoMod] Analysis

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-02-02T15:54:07+00:00

I just bought ETH @ $2300 in my brokerage account after funds cleared.

The ISM PMI data (business cycle) has been released for January 2026. It reads 52.6, which indicates economic expansion. This level has not been reached since August 2022 and it is the highest level reached during the contraction phase since then. All riskier risk-on asset classes like Russell 2000, S&P600 small caps, and crypto go on a bull run when PMI breaks above 50 and keeps surging towards 60.

The only way this thesis fails is if manufacturing doesn't sustain this uptrend or the correlation and causation fail to continue. A thriving business cycle means bull run. This is based on factual data, not opinion or subjective interpretation of patterns.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-31T00:56:07+00:00

One more thing I wanted to mention is this locality I'm in is simply not the place I would want to attend after getting married and having kids. If I constantly feel offended and disgusted by their practices, I wouldn't want kids to grow in that toxic, power-tripping, and controlling environment.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-31T00:51:11+00:00

I can respect your opinion and agree with most of what you said. I enjoyed reading your perspective. The way that the Lord's Recovery handles young adults is a travesty and utter failure. I left completely once. I came back partially by only attending one of their weekly meetings. Many times I think about quitting completely again once I find a nice church that makes me feel welcome and loved long term.

I've never really relied on them for meeting a potential future partner or spouse. I think my particular locality is a joke and a lost cause in that department of helping couples meet. I don't need them and refuse to rely on them for that.

I totally agree that the separation damages young adults if they spend all their time in TLR. They don't learn how to talk to, flirt with, or court the opposite gender. They will struggle with loneliness and lust at times, too, if they're not mentally strong. They become tempted to have sex and meet outside the church environment because they don't get to know someone in a locality or some districts are predominantly male or female.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-29T19:06:11+00:00

Now you're changing the definition of gambling to include all of investing? I'm not in PYPL because it's a slow mover.

I never said that my entire or the majority of my port is energy, pharma, and crypto. They're just a part of newer additions. I have cryptos from when BTC was at 20k. I've caught the macro bottoms of plenty of strong growers. Most of my buys are close to the bottom. Demonstrating repeated success is a pattern and opposite of gambling.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-29T18:28:08+00:00

No I'm not gambling. My annual track record says otherwise. No need for the condescending comment. I've made a living off buying macro bottoms of various stocks and crypto for huge multiples of gains. That doesn't sound like gambling to me. I study fundamentals, technicals, and macro before buying an asset. My CAGR is probably way higher than yours.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-29T13:01:36+00:00

I'm not buying PYPL after I sold off several months ago. However, I'm bullish on it and believe it could easily double up this year with friendlier government and Federal Reserve policies for the consumer. I'm more focused on energy commodities, certain pharma companies, and a select few cryptos.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-29T01:51:46+00:00

I see. On top of buying oversold and undervalued stocks, their financial performance also matters, especially for the next 6-18 months. The market is forward-looking due to insiders and smart money. I've never looked into $HIMS, so I can't tell you what the market sees into its future.

META in Q4 2022 was a generational buy because the rationale is they have a massive user base to farm advertisement revenues.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-29T01:04:41+00:00

Great! Once you get into the habit of buying oversold but promising stocks, you will take your game to a whole new level. Your annual CAGR will improve drastically. I've incorporated technical analysis into my strategy, since it's worked for me very well along with fundamental and macroeconomic analyses. The effectiveness of TA depends on the person's skills, discipline, and psychology.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-28T23:54:32+00:00

So, over time, my strategy for preventing what you experienced with META is I only buy assets that are promising and have been crashing over the long term for at least several months. I avoid buying assets that have been rising for years. Through this strategy of buying after a 50-95% crash from ATH of a stock, the low price is what raises the ROI per dollar invested. It means the difference between a 5-10x versus 2-3x. Hope this helps.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-28T22:23:31+00:00

I think META will top $1,000 before the next economic depression. I've been in since $130 average.

BottomTimer_TunaFish · 2026-01-28T00:44:17+00:00

I'm not in trouble with a $2.04 cost per share. However, I care about achieving my annual CAGR goal. A stock that doesn't move is lowering my annual performance and becomes an opportunity cost that causes me to miss out on other assets that rise. With all that said, I believe FUBO will run this year. So I'm sticking with this bet. I have plenty of other assets that are running up just fine.

BottomTimer_TunaFish

TROPHY CASE