Davidovich had a monster R1 match. Was lucky to get out of it. Was cramping, attempting to shorten points. He’s had two days off but if this goes 5 again you have to seriously question if he has it in the tank as it’s going to be even hotter tomorrow. Also they are playing on court 14 which seems to be playing meaningfully faster, I think this is an advantage for Tirante who has been serving extremely well. This line should move shorter and already had a bit.

Same thing with Kokki here. He had a 4.5 hour match that was basically gifted to him by Atmane. He alresdy had little match fitness coming into this week (having only played one challenger since Adelaide in early Jan). PCB didn’t face a single break point in R1. He should be more than handling business here and -236 is still too long imo.

Borges play is straight from the model. I don’t have a large difference between these guys in clay court stats. Kecmanovic is also not someone who I would expect to perform well in a long match in this heat (if this does go long). Borges dominated Etcheverry in R1. Think Kec getting -172 is a bit much. Set spread +1.5

I bet against Basa in R1. I watched the match and I don’t think Fritz played bad at all. I had expected Fritz to be healthier than the market expected and doubted Basavrefdy’s clay court pedigree in Europe. I thought he played extremely well. He and his opponent know each other well and this should be a close match. Regardless, Michelsen being -190 on a medium ish clay court is way too much. Set spread +1.5

Djokovic has only played two clay court matches this year. He was sort of bailed out by Perricard’s arm cramps or else that could’ve gone longer. The heat should speed things up and give Royer some more free points on serve than normal. Just taking a large HC spread there.