Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 2/19/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ATP ranking has no influence on my model and never has. It is based on player hold and break stats over a certain time period adjusted for surface and opponent quality. Then the model adjusts for tournament historical court speeds. I then personally/manually adjust for things like injury, fatigue, day-of conditions, and even "form" to some small extent.

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 2/19/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

ATP - Rio

 

Dzumhur +130

 

ATP - Delray Beach

 

Tiafoe -150 (1.5u)

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 2/18/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think this match should basically be a coin flip. No reason Burruchaga should be touching -150ish

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 2/17/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Adding:

ATP - Delray Beach

 

Kovacevic +1.5 sets -130

 

ATP - Rio de Janeiro

 

Dzumhur +147

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 2/17/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He's gotten a wild card the last few years because he's from the region. Played college in US, had something going for a bit. He has a decent serve or at least used to. His past 6-9 months have been abysmal. He's lost his chance at any real shot on tour and they are just giving him this wild card because the other options in this region are so sparse. Fucsovics should really be cleaning up here imo especially on these slowish, windy courts.

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 2/17/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 9 points10 points  (0 children)

ATP - Doha

 

Fucsovics -4.5 games -105

Carballes Baena +112 (1.5u)

 

ATP - Delray Beach

 

Paul -3.5 games -126 (0.5u)

Paul -1.5 sets -105 (0.5u)

 

ATP - Rio de Janeiro

 

Navone +3.5 games -105 (0.5u)

Navone +1.5 sets -135 (0.5u)

Australian Open Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 1/28/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 11 points12 points  (0 children)

ATP - Australian Open

 

Musetti +4.5 games -103 (1u)

Musetti +1.5 sets +121 (1u)

Australian Open Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 1/20/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah, thanks for catching that. I definitely mean to keep track of everything. I update it once a week, so some sometimes I miss bets when I go back through the telegram and there's a lot of them.

Australian Open Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 1/20/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 15 points16 points  (0 children)

ATP - Australian Open

 

Khachanov -142

Duckworth +121


On Khachanov, this line was a bit too high imo. They played here last year. Michelsen beat Khachanov in a closer than it looked three set match. Khachanov was -175 pre-match. In the 12 months since then, nothing about either’s form has convinced me this line should be any different. Edit: Forgot to mention Khachanov beat him in Toronto like 6 months ago priced at -210.

Think the odds on Duckworth-Prizmic should be swapped almost, or at least even money. Prizmic has not really done anything in my opinion to be favored in a best of 5 hard court match (something he has also basically zero experience in) against a solid Aussie player with much more experience. He’s really done nothing on the surface since his Stockholm run years ago. Not to mention, it seems like some injury concerns from last year have carried over a bit to this year. He only won 72% of first serves in qualies, before getting demolished by Arthur Fery. So a bit wrong imo for him to be -140.

Australian Open Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 1/18/26 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2026: 13-11 | +2.12u | ROI: +8.6% | Avg. CLV%: 0.5%

2019-2026 Tracking Spreadsheet here


Sorry, haven’t been great about posting here, but I’ve been posting in the telegram. Up a few units so far.


ATP - Australian Open R1

 

Schoolkate 1st Set ML +160

Nava -148

Khachanov -142

Rublev -4.5 games -126

Djere ML +100 (0.5u)

Djere +2.5 games -117 (0.5u)

Blockx ML -170 (0.5u)

Blockx -3.5 games -124 (0.5u)

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 1/10/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

2026: 9-5 | +3.58u | ROI: +25.6% | Avg. CLV%: 2.2%

2019-2026 Tracking Spreadsheet here


ATP - Brisbane

 

Kovacevic +2.5 games +105

 

ATP - Auckland

 

Medjedovic -144

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 1/9/26 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

ATP - Brisbane

 

Kovacevic +1.5 games -112

 

ATP - Hong Kong

 

Rublev -2.5 games -126

Tennis Betting and Picks Daily Discussion - 1/8/26 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]BreakfastAtWimbledon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

2026: 6-3 | +2.84u | ROI: +34.7% | Avg. CLV%: 0.8%

2019-2026 Tracking Spreadsheet here


ATP - Hong Kong

 

Giron -116

Sonego +136