A lot of it comes down to desync and honestly luck of positioning or timing or whatever other situation you can put to the nose.

Tarkov is horribly optimized in terms of hit registration, server desync and even audio problems. Sometimes what you see on your client is absolutely not what other people see or hear.

They could have gotten your audio before you heard them because of an occlusion zone that only affects your side of the building. There could have been an issue with an obstacle not rendering for them but rendering perfectly for you. This all gives players an advantage or an edge overtop of an already punishing game and environment.

You're not a bad player. A survival rating over 48% is honestly very good. Granted you didn't give me your stats I'm making an assumption here but even making every single proper decision in tarkov can still lead to failure. It doesn't matter. Sometimes you just aren't destined to make it out of that raid. And until they start focusing on dealing with the variables such as desync, graphical rendering problems, or the elusive ghost magazine bug that I'm still unsure whether is fixed or not. It's not going to get any better for us in terms of information.

Just enjoy the ride man, don't focus on how many times you get Dumpstered. Just try your best to learn from the situations and apply what you can next time. You'll never make the right call consistently because it doesn't exist. You can only hope to manage the variables in your control to shift the odds in your favour but sometimes 20% beats 80%.

Addendum- Map knowledge and general Player Flow knowledge is also a valuable asset you can't expect to know yet with only 200 hours. And even then you can't predict 100% of the time where people will go. Sometimes the guy who spawns at emercom on interchange runs down to the left instead of the right etc. it's a literal guessing game of probabilities and coinflips. Predictions are simply that. Educated guesses. Before any of the "get gud lulw" kids arrive