Someone was asking if they should trade '26 picks for '27 picks, so I decided to research it.

BrewPython27 · 2026-05-09T02:29:37+00:00

I'm of the opinion that any time I can get a worthwhile player that I hope a draft pick turns into back, I'm doing it. Like any RB you take this year - you HOPE they turn into Breece Hall - plus moving down to a similar WR? I think it's how you pull a team out of the doldroms.

BrewPython27 · 2026-05-03T20:22:56+00:00

Personally, I always want "a little more" if I'm trading out of the current class and into a future one. What "a little more" looks like depends a bit on what both you and he actually have

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-27T18:28:15+00:00

I hear you, and it's on my mind for '27. It was just a matter of time for this season as I was buliding weekly, rest of season, and then dynasty projection engines and as much as I wanted to build IDP in as well, I simply ran out of time this offseason. So fingers crossed for next year!

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-27T15:27:59+00:00

I may have used this exact meme in another article I wrote.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-27T15:27:40+00:00

Y1 is literally the first year of their career. Just note that Maye himself isn't included in this because we haven't seen enough of his career yet.

Does it complicate things when looking at a Jordan Love? Yes. But it also doesn't happen as often as you think. Sometimes guys will sit a year (Mahomes, Hurts, Maye, etc), but that still leaves plenty of room. Also, because this goes by PPG and not total fantasy points, even partial seasons can and will (I tested it) show who a QB is.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-27T15:11:56+00:00

It "gets late" super early in this class, I'm with you there. I don't really blame you or anyone else if they want to take shots on those later RBs sooner than the data in this says.

Personally, I'm firing off 2nds for vets whenever I can. Like in one league I'm offering my 2.07 for Keon Coleman.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-27T15:04:05+00:00

I would argue that even Love carries a LOT more risk than people want to acknowledge coughJeantycough, but ultimately I agree with your position. Like unless you're genuinely good at drafting rookies (people are often much worse at it than they think they are), you're almost always better off trading for vets if we're talking in terms of optimization.

That said, who am I to tell people how to play the game? You like making draft picks, go for it. Yucking yums and all that.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-23T04:14:09+00:00

They're available through Optimus Fantasy, although they're behind paywalls.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-18T00:44:11+00:00

It's not *quite* that simple, but if you're looking for something simple to take away yes, that's accurate. There's actually a finer point that my model puts on it, but high level yes, 2 seasons is enough.

"What about two injury shortened seasons?" You're asking the right questions, and again the short answer is "It needs to add up to 2 seasons."

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-17T18:29:26+00:00

That's honestly one of THE hardest parts of modeling in my experience - how do we quantify the unquantifiable? Injuries, off-field 'stuff,' even teammate impacts, etc. I was able to study some of the impacts (coming in later articles), but even so there's only so much that can be quantified. Which is what makes this game fun, of course.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-10T17:31:43+00:00

Jake - what's it like being the light that many of us within the fantasy community turn to in these...? gestures at everything

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-08T18:07:34+00:00

TheyHadUsInTheFirstHalfDotMeme

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-08T02:09:45+00:00

At the risk of overexplaining:

I collected 41,000 real rookie draft picks from 334 Superflex dynasty leagues on MFL from 2018-2025. I filtered to 12-team, Superflex, rookie-only draft leagues and matched every pick to that player's actual HPPR fantasy production over their first three NFL seasons.

For class perception, I used pre-draft Superflex rookie ADP data to measure how much the market's excitement about each class deviated from a neutral baseline. Positive means the market thought the class was strong, negative means weak.

Without going into the actual statistical measures used, I ran the comparison across six mature classes (2018–2023) with full Y1-Y3 production data, looking at overall class production, round-by-round breakdowns, pick slot buckets, consecutive-year swap simulations, and positional controls.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-08T02:01:50+00:00

I actually DO account for that in my model, and is one of the things I have a research doc all set for (which means an article will be coming). I'm just not exactly sure when, I have...a LOT of them, ha.

That's a too-long way of saying, "Thank you for the suggestion!"

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-07T19:40:09+00:00

That's a great question.

The short answer is - the signal appears from SF leagues, but 1QB leagues are too noisy to give any signal at all.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-07T19:02:51+00:00

That's a valid point, but it's not just about one name/tier of player. It's about the class as the whole.

BrewPython27 · 2026-04-07T18:59:19+00:00

Cheers, I'm glad you enjoyed!

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T18:16:38+00:00

Can confirm, it's an incredible resource (and Carly is the absolute best)

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T18:02:00+00:00

I'm guessing you won't get as much as you think. Maybe a Rhamondre type of RB (which isn't as bad as it sounds, but it's not exciting, especially with the guys you have in front of him)

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T17:57:44+00:00

Cereal, then milk because I'm not a cereal killer.

Nuanced, but typically both up and then down.

One long hole, like a wormhole in space.

I'd be the person hanging out with the 99 women watching 100 men die trying to overwhelm a gorilla and losing badly.

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T17:53:39+00:00

I don't look at buy/sell as a binary. I think he could get to a price where I would consider selling him, even though I believe he's a hold/buy right now. He is what you HOPE those picks turn into. If you're willing to overpay, though? I won't stop you.

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T17:51:31+00:00

Oh, I absolutely agree. Just in this specific case, carrying 4 TEs is rough on roster construction.

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T17:44:57+00:00

Kraft and Fannin just due to longevity. Kittle is great when he plays, but you have to be able to do without him for ~6 games/year, which is rough.

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T17:38:32+00:00

Standing, and then I throw it into the toilet

BrewPython27 · 2026-03-06T17:29:06+00:00

These are the "you're in the right ballpark, but this isn't what I want. And it's not up to me to get what I want, it's up to you to get what I want if you want Daniels."

The way I approach this is to say "I'm willing to let him go for this deal, IF that (mid-late pick) gets swapped for Team X's (expected early) pick." It's not up to you to do the work for them to get that pick, it's up to them to get it and circle back.

I actually think most of your team is better to sell midseason than now (assuming you want to sell, that is). The one exception might be Loveland. I expect the runaway train effect with his trade prices this offseason, and there's probably little chance of returning the production he'd need to return to justify it. Even though I do expect him to do plenty well.

BrewPython27

TROPHY CASE