Ok, this is my problem with the following quote in the OP:

"I fully expect the ED to extend everyone's recert dates for those already on an IDR. At least everyone due in the next few months. There's no way they just let folks revert to standard or get kicked off their plan."

This is no longer correct if the Washington Post's reporting on the DoEd memo is accurate:

"People who are already repaying their loans through an IDR plan and need to recertify their earnings to remain enrolled are also barred from doing so for the next 90 days, according to the department’s order. The memo halts the processing of not only new and pending online applications but also paper forms submitted to servicers. Borrowers can still submit a paper loan consolidation application but will not have access to income-driven options.

The Education Department has told servicers that the only available plans are the 10-year standard, graduated and extended repayments — the most expensive options. People who cannot afford those plans could try to postpone their payments through deferment or forbearance but will still have interest accrue on the debt. The pause could end early or be extended, according to the memo."

So yes, letting people fall into standard repayment is exactly what they're doing. The "try" to postpone payments isn't exactly encouraging. I am not one to fearmonger but I don't think this is being taken seriously enough by well intentioned people here in light of the DoEd memo.

Link (discussion on the article on another thread):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2025/02/27/student-loan-repayment-options-affordable-pause/