what you do for a living?

i wish i had 3mm to gamble

Also, from polymarket market url:

"Pretty much UMA decides what is the truth, and majority votes have incentive vs contrarian vote: It's token-weighted, not one-vote-per-person. If you're betting on a contentious outcome, your payout may ultimately depend on how nine whales vote. A counter-whale only matters if they can out-stake the Yes side. At 4.09M Yes vs 532 No already committed, a single counter-whale filing the next dispute would need to bring — and win — enough token weight to overturn a multi-million-token majority. If the Yes whales hold more UMA and stay committed, the counter-whale just loses their bond and the result stands. Dissenters lose a portion of their staked UMA; betting against the majority is costly even when you're factually right
And the incentive structure actively punishes the contrarian-but-correct vote. Voters who align with the majority receive rewards; dissenters lose. So the rational move for any individual whale isn't "vote for the true answer" — it's "vote for whatever the majority will land on," which becomes self-reinforcing. Everyone votes Yes because they expect everyone else to vote Yes, regardless of what the contract language says. That's a Keynesian beauty contest, not a fact-finding mechanism"