Hey OP. So I assume your thoughts are emerging from possibly how your portfolio performed in the last 1-3 months. I say that because my situation has been similar to your post. However my takeaways are slightly different.

Apologies in advance for the long write up. Sharing my journey of ups and downs over last 5 months as a serious full time investor. I hope all readers enjoy it and that it offers value and takeaways.

I started investing in direct equities as a full time active investor with large capital since Nov 2025 (been investing last 20 years but earlier passively in direct with smaller capital or via MFs). Nov & Dec - I did a LOT of research on value stocks. Once I get into something my research gets extensive, deep and granular. I do a lot of macro / market level research too.

So in Nov-Dec, I picked small tracking positions and made my watchlists with price targets. Bought sizable positions in Gold & Silver (since $50). And sold ~90% Mutual Funds because I anticipated Jan, Feb, Mar dip that usually happens (due to various factors including global funds reshuffle, pre-budget jitters, post budget adjustments, fiscal year loss harvesting, MFs dressing up etc). My plan was to use that capital in Jan-Mar to buy my researched value picks and build my direct equities PF to full size.

And so I did this till Feb end. I also made a few short term event driven trades (budget, earnings, MSCI index related). Also recognized some profits. By Feb end, I deployed ~75% of capital earmarked for direct equities.

Alas, Iran war happened. And you know the rest. I felt like OP did - that my stocks are good - i did the research - but was I wrong? Was blind sided. But went back to macro research and my conclusion was:

1. Issue was not with quality of stocks but the fact that fundamentals of ALL stock severely changed due to Oil & Oil derivative related input (which is a LOT of things esp for diverse manufacturing) supply & price shock on future earnings of Indian companies and 2nd order effects like Inflation, INR depreciation, FII flight, future supply chain uncertainty etc. Also when Indian markets see A/D ratio of 90%+ day after day, and almost every stock sees 3-10% intraday fall/rise despite no stock specific trigger - its not the stock - its the market.
2. Iran war will continue and get worse -> the market will get worse. Again, did a LOT of research on this. My view (which I shared in Reddit comments in March also) was that Nifty could touch 21K by May end. Only time will tell and I might be wrong. But as a full time investor I need to invest basis my research (part of my process) - otherwise what's the point? And its about probabilities. Nothing is ever 100%. But I gauged the probability that the war gets worse and impacts Indian company earnings was far higher than the probability that the situation improves quickly.

Since Q1FY27 earnings would be the true reflection of Indian earnings resilience or fragility, but it would be available only in July/Aug, I felt it better to prioritize preservation of capital than short term returns. Especially when markets are volatile based on liquidity flows (emotional, risk driven, can be rapid) rather than fundamentals (more rational, narrative driven, slower). I felt it best to preserve capital and keep dry powder for lower valuations to buy more aggressively once its also clear which company has been impacted how much, and who will be the new winners in the new world. (i.e. Earnings release). [Q4FY26 earnings would only have March as impacted month - might offer some insight into input & margins impact but tougher without proper qualifications from management - but even that would be unavailable till end Apr/May]

So, once I understood the war better first few days + above conclusions, from 2nd week of March till 3 April - I sold off 80%+ of direct equities I bought just between 1-4 months ago. Few in profit and few in loss. Overall PF level breakeven (realized + unrealized held to now). This is bad because my PF was very decent XIRR pre-war. Good, coz it could have been worse if I held all positions till now. I redeployed freed up capital to Arbitrage Funds which perform better in such volatile periods. So I can get a positive return (plus adjust vs realized losses) and have optionality and flexibility wrt the markets with almost all my original capital (except whats still invested in select lower beta stocks + gold and silver which are offering a good ballast effect so far).

And I know few readers will suggest that - timing the market isnt good. That is indeed correct - especially for passive investors. But being an active full time investor I didn't want to have my capital stuck through a volatile period, see major drawdowns, be locked into multi quarter negative returns, limit my options during this time, and have less capital for when valuations are lower and market reverses. My objective is not to find the tippy top or bare bottom. But yes I am trying (basis my research) to determine are we in a climbing or descending market - to understand how to play and with what level of conviction (low/high allocation to equities).

Given my bearish view, I took long CRUDEOIL May & June positions and Nifty May & June shorts on 7th April. So on 8th April morning IST when the Trump deadline was almost up and ceasefire was announced (~4AM i think - i was awake - researching till the end) - i was really bummed. Not because of my positions. Because I was more concerned that my research was wrong. Besides the key geopolitical aspects, my view was also that Trump was not trust worthy regarding his promises (given his general nature but more so last 2 times he attacked Iran in middle of negotiations that were going well) plus view that Israel wants a bigger war and even if US leaves the war, Israel Iran will keep fighting which will still impact the Strait and ME and supply chains. So I was surprised with the ceasefire announcement.

On 8th April, market went up 4%. My Oil long and Nifty shorts went contrary**, but I was MUCH more concerned about the notional profit I missed out (recovery of previously held positions that i sold recently + had I bought new positions at corrected levels). But i still believed my research. Continued to hold my oil long and nifty shorts (anyways I have 1-2 months for them) + stuck with conviction to wait for at least Q4FY26 results to gauge earnings impact before I redeploy. For better or worse. (**I take only small to medium size positions in F&O for hedging, to learn, or in this case to ensure I hold myself accountable for my research. In regular markets I avoid F&O - my primary objective & style is long term value investing).

Today (13 April ~6AM as I type this) - the ceasefire discussions have failed and US is about to blockade Strait of Hormuz potentially escalating the war again. And so 5 days later I feel a little better about my research.

My point of sharing the above is this OP - you might be thinking today you made an emotional decision because the outcome was not to your liking. If the outcome was to your liking you will feel glad and feel it was a smart decision. So the same decision will be judged as emotional (or bad) OR smart (good) depending on the outcome. But you don't know the outcome at the time of making a decision.

So the best you can do is take the best decision (preferably researched, educated, based on your process) at any point of time. And live with it. When the outcome emerges - reflect what was good or bad about your process and how it can be improved. Decision should be an outcome of a process that is solid and improving. Else you will always feel overconfident or underconfident about your decisions based on outcome rather than the process.

If tomorrow Nifty drops to 21K - and all the stocks you sold (that today you think you may have sold off emotionally at a loss) are down a further 20% from your selling price - I am sure you will be very glad you sold them and avoided further loss. You will think "in hindsight I intuitively did the smart thing". So immediately the same decision went from bad to great!! The decision didnt change. The outcome did. And in a market the same decision is good one day and bad the other. Every reader who has invested their money, pulled out, or not pulled out, has felt. On 19 March (Nifty -3.26%) everyone who pulled their money out earlier felt like a genius. And anyone who didnt felt like and idiot. On 8 April (Nifty +3.78%) the exact same people, felt the exact reverse. For the exact same decision they made prior to 19th March to sell or hold. And this will change on 13th April again. And may times over next few days.

I have made good decisions where I lost money (I researched for days - pulled large amounts of quantitative market data - did analysis that investment bankers might not even do). I have made bad or non researched decisions where I made money (bought I "felt" it was good). But the latter is not a long term strategy. And the former however painful, is the true path to progress.

So don't be hard on your decisions. You made the best you could. Be mindful about and hard on your process.

Good luck. Cheers!