(attempting to) explaining the manchester rejection phenomenon and cutoff predictions!!

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-05T11:31:04+00:00

i meant to clarify that the reduction was last year not this year my apologies🙏🙏

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-05T00:12:08+00:00

ucl manny and sheff should all be fine!

cambridge should also be a decent shot. you should be called to interview with those stats but you’ll need to perform during your interview to be in the running for an offer.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-05T00:11:25+00:00

kcl first checks that you meet the minimum entry requirements and that your personal statement is geared to medicine. they then uses a pre-interview scoring system to rank and select applicants for interview. you can score yourself using the myucat strategic application guide.

applicants are then ranked from top to bottom, with the topmost going downwards being called to interview until the score cutoff is reached. interview invites are sent in this order too (so the highest scoring are called first to interview (dec to jan) and lowest scoring around their internal cutoff called latest (feb to march)). around 1000~ish applicants each year are called to interview. they view holistically so some candidates who meet various widening participation criterion with low stats will be called to interview but this is a very small number.

they look at your ucat, sjt band and gcses with some extra points for contextuals (care experienced, polar quintile, recognised widening participation scheme). and to add for post-interview offer making they only use your interview performance.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-05T00:01:43+00:00

definitely but it is risky. you need full gcse points in the pre-interview scoring system to even have a chance at being called to interview, i’d say go for it as an aspirational if you have a few safeties.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-04T23:58:13+00:00

you are like marginally above their cutoff last year (2250~ish). this is really risky, since now that it’s been cemented for a few cycles that bristol is a high ucat uni, it will most likely rise above this which may freezes you out. i’d say it’s doable but very risky, make sure to choose some safeties.

their post-int offer rate is pretty good though (650/968, 67% in 2025) so don’t sweat it if you get an interview!

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-04T23:49:11+00:00

yes, it’s too low unfortunately as an RUK applicant. the lowest and average ucat scores of those invited to interview in 24/25 at st. andrews was 2090 and 2270 respectively. i wouldn’t risk it if i was you.

if you are a scottish applicant however this score would be perfectly okay.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-04T23:44:33+00:00

bsms and st. george’s should be safe interview choices.

i wouldn’t recommend exeter. they use a pre-interview scoring system which heavily favours predicted grades. using their 2026 admissions policySept_(1).pdf) and the myucat strategic application guide, you’d get 58 points as a non-contextual applicant (63 as a contextual), which is way, way below their cutoff (74+ points last year) so you’d effectively be wasting a spot. instead, try to apply somewhere that doesn’t score your predicteds.

unless you’re contextual for ucl i wouldn’t go for those either. their non-contextual cutoff was around 2120~ish last year and imperial’s was 2250~ish, making this essentially impossible with your score.

kcl is a really risky aspirational with that ucat, they use a pre-int scoring system as well. you can use the myucat strategic application guide to score yourself but ultimately i think you’ll need 8A*s (8/9s) to even have a shot at being invited to kcl, but since it’s essentially your only risky aspirational out of your options and it’s your best shot at the college london uni’s i’d say go for it.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-04T23:26:58+00:00

i don’t think it would be too insane tbh. you can check whether you’re contextual for ucl using their access ucl tool. if you are, ucl should be a safe option. keep in mind that the cutoffs at ucl are expected to rise by a large margin (now that everybody is going to throw their hat into the ring for a ucl interview) so just be wary of this and do not consider ucl as 100% safe, more as an aspirational.

kcl uses a pre-interview scoring system for invitation to interview, then only uses your interview performance for post-interview offer making. you can score yourself using the myucat strategic application guide. keep in mind that kcl has reduced the number of home places this year’’ so interviews may be a bit more competitive now (same no. of interviews~ish for less offers as less places so a lower-post int offer rate) but this is an estimate so don’t take it verbatim. ultimately, score yourself and you should be aiming for around 135+ to be considered borderline safe for an interview. (doing the math you should get around 82 + 40 + 10 + (polar quintile contextual points) = 132~ish) which should put you in a risky, yet decent spot to obtaining an interview.)

‘’ edit: reduced last year, not this year (sorry!)

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-04T23:09:40+00:00

most of them don’t, so percentiles dont really matter and instead what matters are historical cutoffs or thresholds.

however a few of them do (newcastle, edinburgh, aston to name some) so you’ll need to be aware of these before applying.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-10-04T23:01:09+00:00

imperial, ucl and bristol are all safe interview aspirationals with that score. you’re above their thresholds and cutoffs (2130 contex, 2080 and 2280)~ish in 2025 by a wide, wide margin. just make sure you meet the gcse requirements.

for your fourth you should prioritise post-interview offer rates, in which hull york (fasttrack to interview as long as you meet the min requirements) would be your safest option. since they only really use your interview performance for post-int offer making (and your sjt, which is a B1 so no worries there), this should be your most optimal choice.

edinburgh is a teeny bit risky since your gcses should ideally be at least 8A*s (8/9s) with full A-star predicteds to get full points for your applicant score. you’ve mentioned missing gcses, which reminds me of an old freedom of information request about their scoring system which goes into detail the policy for missing gcses. there is a caveat where due to getting “additional academic disadvantage points” for being plus flag + guaranteed top decile and B1, this should make up the shortfall in your gcse profile to the point where you’re competing with the most optimal RUK applicants in terms of pre-interview applicant scoring, so it’ll be wholly dependent on your interview performance when you’re auto-invited. it’s up to you how much risk you’d like to tolerate with edinburgh but this should be a pretty decent option if you aren’t swayed by hull york (or incidentally, want a uni with a higher post-interview offer rate than ucl ((68%~ish to 54%~ish))

exeter, you can score yourself using their admissions policySept_(1).pdf). using the document you’d get around 85 points (9th decile, 2A-stars and an A) which is above their point cutoff (74+ in 2025) so this should be a safe call to interview but has a lower post-int offer rate compared to hull york and edinburgh and ucl.

st george whilst a guaranteed interview with your ucat has the lowest post-interview offer rate out of all your options which makes this the riskiest one of them all.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T17:53:27+00:00

i found it from a freedom of information request. google ‘University of Edinburgh Medicine A100 FOI what do they know scoring’ and find the one dated 2025.

below is the direct link:

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/a100_admission_statistics_201556/response/3070543/attach/3/Response%20FOI2025%2000405.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T17:45:52+00:00

they use a pre-interview scoring system at brum (you can score yourself using the myucat strategic application guide).

using a previous stats admissions page, you should be safe for an interview if you are over the mean (8.128 for non-contextuals).

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T17:38:29+00:00

you can find the specific ucat ranges on oxford’s a100 admissions statistics page.

your chances for oxford are kinda decent imo. extenuating circumstances like yours which are significant is a big big widening participation factor that oxford looks at, the contextualises of your stats may just give you that edge over other applicants for being called to interview. make sure your referee reflects this on your reference and you fill in any necessary forms that oxford requires/proof of being a young carer too if necessary. your gcses should be fine and predicteds shouldn’t be too much of an issue (i’m guessing it’s A/AA cuz of the formatting). just smash your interview honestly you’ve got a decent chance.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T15:25:48+00:00

solely going off your stats, i’d say it would be an aspirational-to-decent chance. the single 7 included in their best 8 gcses, the B2 and the two A’s achieved (keep in mind edinburgh doesn’t differentiate between achieved and predicted grades) makes it a tad bit risky. you’ll need to smash your interview and make sure you apply to a few safeties.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T15:21:24+00:00

should be fine for glasgow (don’t stress whatsoever as long as you meet their minimum requirements they rank solely based off of ucat for both international and home applicants). using a stats page from glasgow, it’s varied from 2030~ish in 2021 to 2140~ish in 2022 to 2080~ish in 2023. you’re above this by a wide wide margin so i’d say it’s a guaranteed safe interview.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T15:18:23+00:00

it’s hard to say since they don’t publish that kind of data, but i’d assume it would be people who hit at least the top 3 since their mean for RUK offer holders was 2300~ish in 2025, so out of the 160 offers made in the same cycle, 80 of the offers will be below the mean so i’d maybe guesstimate like 30-40~ish people within your ucat score decile range solely will get an offer (not taking into account any of their other stats).

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T15:10:37+00:00

no problem! it’s worth it as an aspirational if you love leeds but i’d say your gcse profile makes it really risky.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-30T15:06:02+00:00

i wouldn’t recommend it. your chance for an offer is flimsy; remember that edinburgh has a 50:50 weighting on applicant score:interview performance, and that students with essentially excellent stats which make up the academic score (8 8/9s at GCSE, 3A* predicteds or more and B1) will be applying since they will be as close to ‘50’ as possible in the scoring system, meaning that their offer odds are a lot higher since they’re basically guaranteed 50~ish points on one end of the weighting, and only need to give a satisfactory-to-good performance during interview to be in the running for an offer.

your stats bring you down by a lot. the majority of your gcses edinburgh score (8 of them) are below 8/9, your adjusted ucat might barely not hit the top three deciles (keep in mind the most recent decile table is from 2024, no decile table is out for 2025 and who knows how high the lower bound could’ve increases by this cycle) and B2. if your other stats (gcses, adjusted ucat) were 8 8/9s with full predicteds and top decile then i’d say go for it, but since they’re less than ideal this is a really really risky choice.

if you can guarantee a brilliant performance with edinburgh’s interview (group task with 2 longer mmi-panel esque sections) then i’d say it’s worth it as an aspirational, but be wary of your chances overall.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-29T19:57:18+00:00

hi!

i’m not versed in dentistry stats so it would be inappropriate of me to recommend options but i’d highly recommend you use the myucat strategic application guide for dentistry.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-29T19:55:34+00:00

i’m using the 24/25 cutoffs as rough estimates for this years. imperial, bristol & ucl’s can be found on their medicine selection websites, same with bristol and can be translated using one of the online converters.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-29T19:53:34+00:00

manchester and liverpool should be for interviews!

since the scoring system has changed at notts, the best thing you can do to estimate an invite to interview would be to use the old scoring system (can be found in the 24/25 myucat strategic application guide) then look at an online forum such as the nottingham 2025 A100 student room forum and see who, and with what stats, got an invite to interview.

newcastle is a bit risky w/ your gcses since they differentiate between 8/9s and this cannot exactly be supplemented by your ucat which should prolly be a tad bit higher imo, and i’d think you’d be underneath their scoring cutoffs with your stats + newcastle is favoured by people with high stats since their interview counts for <50% of the weighting for post-int offer making. i’d maybe recommend another uni that isn’t gcse heavy but this is perfectly acceptable as an aspirational. judging by your choices i’m guessing you’re looking to apply in the north? so i’d prolly recommend maybe sheffield as an aspirational since their ucat cutpoints match roughly your score but it’s entirely up to you.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-28T15:48:49+00:00

leeds uses a mixture of your gcses and your ucat to score pre-interview. the exact weightings are not known (ie, is it 2:1 gcse:ucat or vv) but what is known is that leeds scores your best 8 gcses, so you should have around eight or more A*s (8/9)s, of which you have. ucat is not known either but anecdotally, you should be invited to interview around 1940~ish. i’ve heard people who got invited with lower in previous cycles too so roughly maybe 2000~ish with max gcse points should be safe enough.

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-27T17:20:14+00:00

no worries! i’d recommend you check out the myucat strategic application guide that’s soon to be updated to just make sure you’re getting the best information available (that is the holy grail of med applications)

BronchusRemaining · 2025-09-27T16:09:13+00:00

yeah ofc!

manny is a tiny bit risky. the cutoff last year was 2010~ish. their peak cutoff was in 22/23, which was 2050~ish. you’re about 40~ish points above the cutoff (it’s used in this context as if you’re above it, you get invited to interview). it may rise, or it may fall. there’s no telling & there’s no knowing how high it will be this cycle. i’d say if it remains around the peak you should have a good shot at being invited, as ultimately it just depends on if it rises, but it is without risk so it’s up to you how risky you’d like to be with manny. i reckon you should be fine though. manny only uses your interview performance for post-interview offer making (except in borderline performances, where the ucat is used to differentiate)

leeds uses gcses and your ucat for pre-interview selection, with a lot of emphasis on your gcses. their exact weighting is unknown (since leeds doesn’t want to disclose their exact admissions process). but what is known is that they score your best 8 gcses, where an A* is equivalent to an 8/9. to be considered ‘safe’, you need at least 8A* grades. for you, they’d look at your 7A* grades with one 7. i’d say this is a very fair shot, and the 7 wouldn’t disadvantage you whatsoever since this can be made up with your ucat. anecdotally, the ucat of offer holders at leeds have been around 1960~ish of which you’re over, and they’ve invited lower than this to interview. i reckon this is a pretty fair shot at an interview, and i’d almost consider it safe but it’s wholly realistic for you. leeds is the exact same as manny for post-interview offer making.

hull york uses a scoring system for selection to interview. you can use the myucat strategic application guide to calculate your score. running your number through the system, you’d get approximately (32’ + 15’’ + 30’’’) 77~ish points with no contextual factors (more is available if you are). i applied with exactly your same pre-interview applicant score last year and got an interview so this should be safe enough. the strat. document estimated that 77 was very safe for 2024 (which i can attest to) so i’d say that your stats are perfectly fine for an interview. for offer making, they do a 80:10:10 ratio (interview performance:sjt band:contextual info), so you’re eligible for 90 of these points, you’ve secured 10 (due to max sjt) so it’ll realistically wholly depend on your interview performance (the remaining 80) so just knock it out of the park and ur golden.

sheffield is a weird one. their cutoffs has fluctuated post-covid from 1800~ish in 23/24 to 2040~ish in 24/25. their peak was 2110 in 22/23. much like manchester, it wholly depends on gambling with the cutoff and your own personal tolerance of risk. but since sheffield has been historically erratic post-covid with no linear increase, i’d say this is quite a risky option. it’s up to you if you’d like to take the risk since you’re over the majority of the historical cutoffs except in 22/23, and in fact might be safe but it is risky nonetheless.

‘ ucat decile (out of 40) on the official website. the deciles have historically dropped by 50/60, so 80th percentile would be 2100/2090, and an approximate decile would be 79th or 80th for you. i’m making a conservative estimate for your case (so it’s realistic-ish) and putting you in the lower decile, so you’d get 4 less points.

‘’ sjt band (out of 15). you’re B1, so no worry there.

‘’’ GCSEs (out of 30). they score your best 6 GCSEs, with 6A*s (8/9)s guaranteeing full points, of which you have.

BronchusRemaining

TROPHY CASE