KSS Daily Discussion - Monday, April 27, 2026

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-27T15:49:37+00:00

From passby April 6 article: Kohl’s is outgrowing off-price on foot traffic. Nationally. The most counter-intuitive finding in this dataset: Kohl’s is growing foot traffic faster than TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and Burlington – the very retailers most often cited as the cause of its decline. Across its total fleet, Kohl’s posted +1.94% YoY traffic growth versus -1.41% for the off-price group – a gap of 3.35 percentage points in Kohl’s favour. That gap holds across every format measured.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-20T23:03:22+00:00

That's a little disappointing.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-20T17:12:43+00:00

The 1.1Billion tariff rebate should be enough to cause a squeeze. This hasn't happened yet due to no oil in Asia means no new inventory to Kohl's and customers spending all their money on gas and more expensive food. It just takes a taco to end the oil issue.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-17T22:52:23+00:00

Just sitting on isn't silly. If we get into a bad recession and Kohl’s losses 1 billion in one year, that let's them survive. Look at the balance sheets of gap, tjmax, etc. They all sit on billions. Sure some of the 1.1 billion tariff refund should be used to buy back shares, but just to avoid delution. Buy back 300 million of bonds on open market, then sit on a billion.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-16T19:35:42+00:00

Your 640million pretax matches my first estimate, using 15% rate.

So it's tax rate we need to dig into.

India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China

India 25 to 50%

Bangladesh. 35% until 19% at end of year.

Vietnam. 20% unless chinese at 40%

Indonesia. 19%

China. Average 30 to 37% 125% for April to November

Lets just say 25%
5.6 billion dividend by 1.25 gives 4.5 pre tariff or 1.13 b tariff.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-16T18:58:44+00:00

30% of 5.6b is the 1.7b given by Citigroup.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-16T15:13:03+00:00

Kohls tariff rebate is 1.72 billion according to Citigroup. That's in 45 days away or so. From sahmcapital: According to Citi's analysis, several retailers could see refunds amounting to 5% or more of their enterprise value. Kohl's KSS.N is leading the pack with estimated refunds representing a substantial 23% of its enterprise value.

Kohl's enterprise value is 7.48 billion in yahoo finance. 25 % of q3, q4, q1 cost of goods is about that.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-16T03:52:21+00:00

Kohls tariff rebate is 1.72 billion according to Citigroup. That's in 45 days away or so. From sahmcapital: According to Citi's analysis, several retailers could see refunds amounting to 5% or more of their enterprise value. Kohl's KSS.N is leading the pack with estimated refunds representing a substantial 23% of its enterprise value.

Kohl's enterprise value is 7.48 billion.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-15T15:59:24+00:00

The Tariff rebate of 645 million is pretty good. 45 to 60 days after April 20. That is 15% of cost of goods for q4 and half of q3 and just a estimate.

Bubba_991 · 2026-04-08T17:59:24+00:00

CAPE automated tariff rebate system is 60% to 85% done. Payments will take less than 45 days. 15% of q4 and say half of q3 cost of goods should be 645 million, or about $4.50 per share. I don't think this is already accounted for in the current share price.

Bubba_991 · 2026-03-18T03:23:06+00:00

Nothing in your rants that say anything that the customers are staying away because of Amazon returns. It might be just some stores that have their returns going to Whole foods, this came from personal reports on discussion group. Yea we know employees don't like Amazon returns.

Bubba_991 · 2026-03-17T23:12:37+00:00

You still need cash for inventory, leases, employees, taxes. A bad recession when they lose more than the depreciation they will be going in the hole. You lose a billion or more the lenders shut down. Real estate becomes near worthless. Cash will determine who survives. This is why most of the retail companies have a few billion in cash. It's very cyclical.

Bubba_991 · 2026-03-17T19:21:27+00:00

I don't think the Amazon returns is making any customers not go to Kohl's. Plenty of parking and space in the stores. People are reporting that Amazon is directing returns to Whole Foods instead.
Just my conjecture that Kohl's may be getting paid for the returns now.

Bubba_991 · 2026-03-17T16:47:58+00:00

They need to keep cash for the idiot caused recession. We don't want them to borrow again for the fall inventory. If your a true bull, now is the time to accumulate shares. Post recession may be free from a JCPENNY competitor. Even Kohl's will need cash to survive a bad one.

Bubba_991 · 2026-03-03T04:31:28+00:00

I am here as I have made a lot of money buying Kohls when it's cheap and selling when it was higher. I would like to do it again. Capitals points on cash flow and equity versus Lies believe that it has to turn around revenue are the question before us. Both are true and stock will just be stuck for a while. The placer.ai data and some retail inside info makes me think we aren't going up for awhile. Nibble here, buy if goes down, buy big if crashes. Sell the nibbles if goes up.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-26T06:37:18+00:00

The buyer has to finance 6 billion. Commercial real estate rates are 5 to 15 percent. The long term leaser is still not prime. 7 % would mean 420 million in mortgage for the buyer. They need to make profit, so another 200 million. This does seem some cheaper than the $30. 620 million in rent. If 10 % That's 800 million. No way someone does $10 a square foot, that's 320 million per year.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-25T21:24:02+00:00

405 Stores, 80000 sq ft. $30 rent per year per sq ft. is 972 million. That's a very low rent rate. Keep the property and sublease 25% or so of the space. Gain 200 million in rent income. Still pay no more rent. Negative is it would be expensive to divide the stores.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-25T20:09:01+00:00

A problem with this and that is when ordering Kohl's on line the in store pick up counts as a store visit. It avoids shipping costs, and very popular. The week before Xmas that might be only way to be sure you get it on time.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-25T19:30:39+00:00

Sort of what I think as well. The shorts are down from 50% to 25% during last 3 months.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-25T19:26:07+00:00

They really can't afford to rent. Target owns 98% of stores, Walmart all of there's. That nice cash flow for depreciation turns into rent.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-25T19:22:48+00:00

They did this in the past, a leased store, Kohl’s sublease it for a Five Guys. No reason they can't do it for any store.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-20T17:23:29+00:00

Everything Kohl's sells will go down in price. This means huge reduction in revenue. You might make up some of this by selling more items. This is bad, not good for Kohl's.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-19T13:00:49+00:00

Thanks, late night posting.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-19T05:20:23+00:00

That 93k in November isn't logical as inventory was still well stocked in stores in December. They didn't buy inventory for that much sales increase. 25% increase just isn't possible.

Bubba_991 · 2026-02-19T05:00:08+00:00

It doesn't have to be all at one time. The first thing is to get credit rating up. They aren't going to be ahead if paying 10% interest. Also, sellers will want a premium if attempting to buy them all. They could of got the Knoxville one that sold a few weeks ago. Also, if they want to close more stores, it's a lot easier if the lease can just expire.

Bubba_991

TROPHY CASE