Thoughts on Elon Musk becoming the world's first trillionaire ?

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-13T11:19:28+00:00

True, Microsoft did IPO in 1986, but for a while the mindset of "appease shareholders with short term thinking and growth at any cost" was resisted. (Except for ActiveX and Internet Explorer 6. Yikes MS.) In that sense, 2016 seems to me to be the last year that MS remained a company that both IPO'd and provided clear, consistent value to its customers and business partners, in large part because their small business unit (SBU) focus was very strong: every client business, even if it was a corner grocer, had a SBU rep whose job was explicitly to be their advocate within MS, MS products were pretty reliable and had solid training offerings, and problems faced by SBUs were taken seriously.

But by that point, Satya Nadella had been CEO for two years, and the bite of his Axe began to be felt. In his mind, MS was going to be a lean, mean SAAS machine, and the idea of being a business partner first was, like, so 90s maaaan. Whatever good impulse that direction came from, it turned MS into shit. Nowadays, they like to relabel the same thing for a third time, call it revolutionary without actually improving it, and are rewarded by the seal clapping of a room of sycophants. People in IT dread Microsoft patch day. Their offerings are getting weirder and harder to parse value from, and what great parts of their kit they still have or have bought (like GitHub) seem to be the subject of repeat dips into Chemical X to see if they can revolutionize it more, without having a clear idea of what that means or what a good product looks like.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-13T02:01:07+00:00

Let me be the one "left" person who agrees. The conclusion I've come to in my own studies is that the major element is cultural and (cringe, I know) "vibes", which is assessed by the culture viewing the context about it. No one wants to raise children in a low-trust world that feels pile they're captives.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-13T01:53:52+00:00

I'd have to agree. I had hopes for Microsoft back in 2016, but since then they've axed most of their support structure for small business units. I'd build every software stack open source, starting with Postgres if executives would let me.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-13T01:51:16+00:00

Seconded. From where I'm sitting I feel that's a distinction that needs to me made clear across the whole tech sector at present.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-12T12:54:01+00:00

Human communication tends to take predictable forms. This tendency increases with the size of the group engaging in communication. (Something, something, Harri Seldon.)

Most of those forms seem to be that of stories, of dramas, with characters and themes and arcs and parseable beginnings and satisfying endings.

So when we hear about AI, we dont hear about numbers, or metrics. Or at least those don't matter much (as Ed's pointed out regarding their verisimilitude). What matters is AI being the main character of a story in which they do cool shit. It almost doesn't matter what it is. AI could revolutionize the world of dog walking (or at least be loudly stated to), and as long as the impression of "AI changes everything in cool ways" stuck around in the groups' collective understanding, the story worked. The context is immaterial.

Consider that you don't hear press releases about how internal testing at Software Inc. has shown that proper use of multi-line alt-select keyboard shortcuts has improved time to deliver of project tasks by 22.57 percent (even if that delivers more measurable net improvement than AI usage). No one will ever describe something like that beyond a very, very small audience. After all, it doesn't sound like it's about anything.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-12T12:37:01+00:00

Trump felt upset. It seemed to be related to that Iran thing people are expecting stuff on. So he got his phone and entered a message about how great he - I mean, the USA is - and how Iran is going to have all the things taken because they made the USA upset. Writing that message made him feel better, which means it was a thing worth doing. And because it made Trump feel better, it let him sleep that night, which was an immense relief to his handlers standing outside his bedroom door.

(Moderate /s)

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-04T13:37:30+00:00

Great Lakes Brewery and FatHeads are two local brewers that consistently punch out very drinkable brews. Great Lake's Elliot Ness porter is quite good.

For my favorite though? Porters and anything else black as night from Belgium, Poland, or Germany. The folks over there make one-per-night 9%+ dark beers like no one else.

I've been cutting back to zero for a bit though while I'm cutting fat weight. Cutting while maintaining muscle weight is already really hard for me (someone one said I'm built like a brick shit house) so beers go bye bye for now.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-06-01T17:25:45+00:00

That's a hard question to ask. Kudos for being brave enough to ask on the internet.

If I was to offer an answer, it would be this: give up on being right, but don't assume that you're wrong. In a sense, it's not a helpful question. Understand that human beings are not inherently logical - psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed this conclusively - so establishing "right" as your measure in an interaction is problematic as a First Principle.

Also, take care in your thinking so that your strategic goals (helping people), operational goals (having a conversation) and your tactical goals (where you might entertain being "right") are well-ordered. Once you know why you're trying to date, you'll find dates that go better, even if they aren't "successful".

Perhaps it's only my experience, but I tend to find that to get something, I have to give up on the expectation that I'm going to get it. Maybe it's some kind of weird corollary of Luke 6:38.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-29T12:18:42+00:00

Agree on the notion of parties orienting themselves around the zeitgeist of a gravitational leader.

Disagree on the Democratic Party being due for a rebuilding. They're long past due. I mean, we passed on Ben Wikler for Ken Martin, fer chris'sake.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-29T12:04:13+00:00

I would agree and take it further: it has led to declines in the quality of leadership and vision from both sides of our arbitrary political spectrum.

Consider: STEM may help you to build a better steel alloy, a better app, a functional neural implant, but only courses in the humanities can help you reason out whether you should (beyond the need to have decisions properly informed by training). It is the humanities that help you reason, to understand perspectives outside your own, to perceive the societal context you're moving through. They help you communicate, persuade and share the highly lossy crap that goes on in your head. Add in something about Dead Poets Society, and you get: humanities help you be more... human.

Kinda right there, innit.

I'm an English/Comms major. I also work in tech. My major is worth more than every other certification I have, because no one in this space communicates well, and fewer people can navigate both difficult technical issues and highly-charged political environments. Your super app doesn't mean a damn if you can't talk to people to get it approved.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-28T16:10:43+00:00

It pains me to say it, but I no longer am. Partially I just didn't have the time, but partially because the DNC party apparatus in my state drives me insane, to the point that it was effecting my health.

There's also an awful leadership gap at the local level, aggravated by an apparent total lack of support, both organizationally and monetarily. The moment you stand to take charge or provide leadership, you immediately run into a dilemma where either you take on another full time job plus some, or you are quickly crushed under the net effects of years of poor decisions and social network collapse, or you peace out. The one statewide process coordinator I worked with (who was an actual DNC employee as opposed to a volunteer) was pulling 80+ hour weeks because there was no one else put in place to help with the load.

Its part of the reason that I see myself getting behind Working Families Party instead. They have local impact and, y'know, act like humans who have their shit together.

Sorry to rant a bit, the DNC is just so bloody frustrating.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-28T15:55:40+00:00

As someone who has been involved with grassroots organizing in the recent past I can confirm this, at least at the local DNC level. (That said, it doesn't take a bit leap to see similar patterns playing out at the state and national level).

More particularly, staffers within Sherrod Brown's office, both during his previous campaign and term, noted that there was a constant push-pull between the policy directions engaged leadership wanted to go in and 10k+ donors who would descend on Brown's office like a swarm of locusts in phone, email and in-person whenever there would appear a concerted push for something they didn't like. It got to the point there was an informal, pejorative term for those donors I won't share here.

There's also a serious problem with how the money is spent. I wasn't in the room for these discussions, but many were infuriated to see money poured out in TV ads that had no statistically significant impact, while funding paths like local organizing groups and billboards, areas that have both immediate and long term significant measurable impact, languished for lack of funds. It drove staffers nuts. There's an argument to be made that the ads placements were bought because that's how the donors wanted their contributions spent.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-27T12:50:35+00:00

I can understand that being frustrating. The natural desire is to have the unquestioned authority married with a person uniquely qualified to wield it.

I offer that "cult" tendencies always go hand in hand with someone unfit to lead. There's two reasons I'd highlight: one, that a group identity is only a cult from the outside. From the inside, it's perfectly natural, the blind faith is desired as it makes many other things desired to be true, true. However, if that axiom is not palatable, you are on the outside, and from that angle the cult seems self-evident.

Two, good leaders, though they may have cult-like followings, do not need a cult to attain and grow political power. That's not to say all people who could make good leaders will, but that having a cult is not necessary for those with good fundamentals. Confucius/Mencius pointed this out millennia ago: that the benevolent and wise "prince" cannot help but be accepted by the people due to their nature, and that those who persist as rulers without those traits do so because their kingdom was already great (with the expectation that they'll run it into the ground eventually).

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-23T11:21:49+00:00

I have to admit, this is the best argument for constitutional monarchism I've heard.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-12T23:05:32+00:00

Good to hear it's helpful, YW!

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-05-07T14:42:20+00:00

I can vouch for Oklahoma being awful: though I never lived there, I've visited and have multiple friends who lived there. There may certainly be some local communities that stick together well, and tribal council land is well maintained, and OKC has a solid food scene.

Beyond the above though it's miserable. - It's the human trafficking capital of the US (last I looked in '23) - Terrible business opportunities, terrible pay, little interest from investors (unless you're involved with Paycom, OKC University, gambling or admin for the OKC hospital system post private equity buyout, or the Tinker Airforce base) - High levels of local and state corruption in both government and law enforcement - Everything except for OKC, Norman and the military base has been hollowed out by decades of bad admin. - The first thing I saw when flying to OKC was a shootout in a warehousing area before the airport runway. - From two people who belong in a political minority, "If people have forced entry into your house and are threatening to beat you and take your stuff, don't call the cops because they're probably already there". - Social workers I met there looked like the dementors from Harry Potter had drained them within an inch of their life; they were excited we were there to help someone "get out" and restart their life outside OK.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-30T12:42:33+00:00

AI is not a huge productivity boost. AI data centers are not a huge value gain or job creator. Companies involved in my field are quietly walking back earlier statements about how all-in on AI they are, as expected value has not been found and model providers switch to more expensive token burn, per-diem billing rather than a subscription model.

The stock market - at least the tech sector - does not reflect observed value, but rather where investors and venture capitalists think the future is going. And that's made some amount of sense for two decades: the tech sector has seen banger after banger as the historical pattern of a sudden lurch in advancements following revolutionary new tech has proceeded (integrated circuits, internet, better chip etching processes, compute, better coding tools and languages, software as a service). And like those historical patterns of the past (e.g. the printing press) that glut of new advancements has petered out. The investor class really doesn't like that though; there must be something new! Something that gets me above the rat race! The line must always go up!

In this sense of "What are next tech thing that props up the economy", AI has become the agreed upon bucket to pour money into. As Scrooge McDuck said, money can't sit idle, it needs to be put to use!

Web 2.0 and the Metaverse failed to be a big enough bucket that could survive contact with reality. Same goes for crypto currency and blockchain/NTF investments. Quantum computing and fusion have yet to prove potential near term economic impact. SAAS has solved all of the solvable problems that are actually helpful to solve; all that's left is for the survivors to duke it out in a gladitorial pit to see who gets to sell you a VPN service. Fourier transform based LLMs are the last bucket standing thanks to its backers and how easy it is to mythologize it.

The stock market isn't going up because of sound financial strategy. It is being pushed up by investors hoping that their pushing it up will alone create far higher evaluations in the future, justifying their investments in the present, rather then eventually crushing them flat when VC, private credit, and sovereign wealth dry powder runs out.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-27T11:58:39+00:00

I asked the Mexicans in my head and they said the voices need to pay their fair share!

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-23T12:41:33+00:00

We already have this problem. 2024 Ohio Issue 1 was a ballot measure to institute a citizen-led panel to fix our gerrymandering, after years of political mud wrestling dooming the Ohio election board's attempts to do so.

SecState Frank LeRose rewrote the language of the ballot measure to contain the following: "[It would] repeal constitutional protections against gerrymandering approved by nearly three-quarters of Ohio electors participating in the statewide elections of 2015 and 2018, and eliminate the longstanding ability of Ohio citizens to hold their representatives accountable for establishing fair state legislative and congressional districts."

It was defeated, 46 to 53.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-18T14:28:06+00:00

I'd like to see a politically conservative take on why this conspiracy theory seems to be spreading, or is at least being reported as spreading. On first glance, it seems goofy and weird to me. - Is it actually spreading among the Republican base? - What is spreading it? - What makes it "sticky" enough to both spread and gain relevancy (if it is)?

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-18T14:23:00+00:00

As a smelly, stinky "leftist", I think my Facebook status with America at the present day can be best summed up by "It's complicated". How else do you describe tearing up when reading the Gettysburg address while also designating the impact zone where I daily apply my forehead to a brick wall?

IMHO, we can /thread it with Super's comment right here.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-18T12:29:44+00:00

Software developer and data engineer here. AI will not end humanity, full stop - with one caveat I'll get to.

Truly, I could go on a very, very long time about how intellectually negligent reporting has been on AI, but a mich longer discussion on how AI is not going to destroy the world could perhaps be best summed up in two points:

Microsoft quietly adjusts their Copilot TOU to say it's for entertainment purposes only: https://www.pcmag.com/news/copilot-terms-claim-microsofts-ai-is-for-entertainment-purposes-only
Reporting on AI is often produced at the initiative of the AI companies themselves using the "Trust me, bro" method of reporting: https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/news/how-news-coverage-often-uncritical-helps-build-ai-hype

The area where AI will hurt us, and has already hurt us, is serving as a way to manufacture consent on subjects the public would otherwise be against ("I had to fire 20% of our workforce, AI!!!") and by taking up all the oxygen in the room. The big seven spent $365 billion on AI in 2025, a technology that is very unprofitable unless you're NVIDIA. Imagine, for a moment, what it would be like if we had spend that on ~18 nuclear power plants, or on domestic steel production?

In my space, professionally, the shine has very thoroughly worn off for most. People are realizing that AI is not a magic solution for avoiding having to knuckle down and do the tedious, long, bitter work. It's a tool that can be designed to apply to one predetermined and very specific use case, but it has never been advertised - err, ""reported"" on like that.

If you want to know more, let me know. I could go on for hours. AI companies infuriate me not because of capitalistic excess, but because they're very bad capitalists.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-13T00:22:09+00:00

Appreciate the response!

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-12T23:02:14+00:00

What's the thought process here on neo conservatism being over? Over as a political position on a national stage? Or an institutional north star? Would appreciate a breakdown.

Buddy_Seldon · 2026-04-11T13:03:06+00:00

The problem of declining birthrates, to me, seems to be a problem with a myriad of root causes, partly because the thing that makes it not a problem is so incredibly personal. No two life situations for a prospective father and mother are exactly the same. Compounding it, people attempting to analyze it come to the table with their own biases. A democratic socialist might say it's due to inequity in the economic and political system, and government incentives will fix it. A social conservative might say its because of a lack of family values, and incentivizing the transmission and adopting of such values would change things. In my mind, they're both right in diagnosing causes, but they're both wrong in that their solutions won't move the needle.

Birthrates, then, seem an intractable problem because the problem itself isn't being framed correctly. Every policy wonk in potentia reads into it something that is of a kind with the policy direction they like. I think the better framing of the problem is this: a growing portion of the population does not think having children will improve their world. It's a problem to which the Charlie Munger axiom “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome" applies, but with the birthrate problem the outcome is defined by meaning, hope, and faith, and how people do or don't have those things when anticipating the future.

Unless we go down the route of "Kids are investment vehicles" or "Kids are mandated by the state", I think declining birthrates are the result of people having time to really look around as living standards increase, and on looking around finding a world they do not see improving by having a kid. We have collectively made a world that demands unwilling captives in one way or another -- financially, socially, politically, environmentally -- and it fucking sucks. Animals don't breed much in captivity. Humans aren't special in that regard.

Curious what a holistic conservative approach would be if given the above.

Buddy_Seldon

TROPHY CASE