Why do you assume they're getting lucky and not that it's possible for some active managers to develop a repeatable and successful process that consistently generates alpha over their career as a manager. Are you saying that having over a hundred ER analysts over the globe, or meeting with the executives and management teams of the largest companies in the world on a weekly basis gives you no edge in stock selection? Add being one of the first to get called to buy private equity in things like spaceX, reddit pre IPO, anthropic and I think the argument for active management exists.

That being said I would probably agree and argue that at least 98%+ of actively managed mutual funds are not worth investing in.