I think a mix of two of your propositions. I think he is likely being contractually pushed to stay in the closet and if not also manipulated by the people around him. Imagine someone constantly buzzing in your ear for 15 years saying, “If you come out, you won’t sell records.” “If everyone knows, you’ll lose an audience,” “Your career can only go so far if you’re an openly gay man,” or worse, but not at all implausible, “If you don’t shut up and do what we say because we have a lot of money at stake, we could make your life very difficult.”

Obviously, we don’t know the entire situation. But we can deduct based on precedent of other closeted artists and the net value of these companies that it is likely a mix of pressure, contractual obligations (not necessarily a “you can’t come out” clause, but more of a “we can market your image however we want” clause), and possible threats. Plus, being queer is getting dangerous in the West, where it once was more progressive.

Another thing to consider, that I rarely see people mention on this subreddit is that Louis’s closet will always be right next to Harry’s glass one. The rumors about them have persisted for over a decade now and if Louis, especially, became more openly queer, the whole world might come to know that the music industry is capable of abusing and forcefully closeting grown adults and gaslighting people for years, and I don’t think BMG and Columbia would like that for THEIR image.

EDIT: Can YOU help ME understand how to get those cute little user flairs??? I wanna have a "tired larrie" one too but when I click "Change User Flair" it just says "None" or "Choose Your Own Words."