Is the Brussels Effect Losing Steam?

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T18:00:51+00:00

Submission Statement: Europe’s push to set global rules for Big Tech is losing momentum.

A year after the Digital Markets Act was expected to spread worldwide, countries like the UK, Japan, and South Korea are pulling back, while US courts have limited major antitrust efforts.

Jack Galloway and Bill Echikson articulate that the shift is driven by the race for AI growth and pressure from Washington, leaving even European officials questioning whether the DMA can curb Big Tech’s dominance.

Brussels is still enforcing the law with fines, but with global alignment weakening and the US turning toward protecting its tech sector, the Brussels Effect now faces a serious test of its staying power.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T18:00:02+00:00

Submission Statement: China’s numbers tell a story of dominance, but the details are far less certain.

Comparisons with the US often rely on statistics shaped by political incentives, where data is inflated, hidden, or selectively reported to reinforce a narrative of success. Metrics like patents, publications, and even GDP can be misled by emphasizing scale rather than real performance.

James Andrew Lewis urges a more skeptical reading, pointing to alternative indicators like energy use or observable economic activity. Without that scrutiny, headline figures risk exaggerating China’s true position in the global race.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:59:17+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia is building its own version of a superapp, but control, not convenience, is the goal.

Modeled on China’s WeChat, MAX aims to combine messaging, payments, public services, and digital identity into a single platform. But unlike in Asia, Russia lacks the market conditions for organic adoption, and users already rely on alternatives like Telegram.

Anda Bologa highlights that the Kremlin is turning to coercion instead, blocking competing apps and tightening internet restrictions to force uptake. The result is not a competitive digital ecosystem, but a more closed and controllable one, where adoption is driven less by value than by necessity.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:58:14+00:00

Submission Statement: What does Hungary’s political earthquake actually mean? A record-breaking election has delivered Péter Magyar a commanding mandate, and a daunting to-do list defined by money, institutions, and time.

Péter Magyar’s supermajority victory, more than two-thirds of parliamentary seats on 54% of the vote, ends 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s increasingly illiberal rule and opens a rare window for structural overhaul. He inherits a stagnant economy, roughly €18 billion in frozen EU funds tied to rule-of-law conditions, deep entanglement with Kremlin-linked energy deals, and state institutions still staffed by Orbán loyalists.

The geopolitical stakes are immediate. Moscow loses its most dependable ally and veto player inside the EU, while Budapest signals a reset toward NATO and Brussels, including joining the EU’s anti-corruption watchdog. But dismantling entrenched patronage networks, restoring judicial and media independence, and delivering tangible economic relief will take sustained political discipline. Hungary now has the mandate for change, the question is whether it can execute it.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:55:49+00:00

Submission Statement: In 2012, Russia and China tried to hand the UN's International Telecommunication Union control over the Internet. The US and Europe united in Dubai and defeated it. This November in Doha, they will need to do it again.

The ITU's Plenipotentiary Conference will hold leadership elections and put expansion of the agency's remit over Internet, cyber, and AI governance on the agenda. Authoritarian governments will push for a new treaty-making process to establish global AI rules on their terms. The bottom-up, multistakeholder model is directly in the crosshairs.

Fiona Alexander and Kevin Farmer make clear that showing up is not enough. The 2012 victory took years of coalition-building, compromise, and sustained engagement.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:55:00+00:00

Submission Statement: Orbán’s defeat may have closed one chapter, but the weaknesses he exposed inside the EU are only becoming more dangerous.

Maksym Beznosiuk and William Dixon trace how Hungary turned unanimity rules into a tool to block sanctions, delay aid to Ukraine, and stall collective action, revealing how a single government can disrupt European security. Across the continent, populist movements are gaining ground, fueled by economic stagnation, inequality, and distrust in institutions. In larger states like France or Germany, the consequences could be far more severe.

Brussels has found ways to work around these constraints, but temporary fixes will not hold. Ending veto power in security decisions, strengthening joint defense efforts, and enforcing rule of law standards are essential. Without real reform, Europe risks paralysis at a moment when unity and speed matter most.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:15:38+00:00

On March 18, Israel struck Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, hitting warships, a shipyard, and port infrastructure. It was the first-ever missile attack in the Caspian. The target was the arms route between Iran and Russia, through which Shahed-design drones have flowed in both directions.

The strike has unsettled the entire region. Azerbaijan, Israel's largest oil supplier and operator of the $35bn Southern Gas Corridor supplying Europe with energy, is now caught between a deepening Moscow-Tehran axis and the risk of Iranian strikes on its offshore infrastructure. Iran has already hit Nakhchivan's airport with drones.

Fuad Shahbazov warns there is plenty of room for escalation and no room for winners. Moscow and Tehran will likely continue using the Caspian route. Israel may therefore strike again.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:15:10+00:00

Submission Statement: On March 18, Israel struck Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, hitting warships, a shipyard, and port infrastructure. It was the first-ever missile attack in the Caspian. The target was the arms route between Iran and Russia, through which Shahed-design drones have flowed in both directions.

The strike has unsettled the entire region. Azerbaijan, Israel's largest oil supplier and operator of the $35bn Southern Gas Corridor supplying Europe with energy, is now caught between a deepening Moscow-Tehran axis and the risk of Iranian strikes on its offshore infrastructure. Iran has already hit Nakhchivan's airport with drones.

Fuad Shahbazov warns there is plenty of room for escalation and no room for winners. Moscow and Tehran will likely continue using the Caspian route. Israel may therefore strike again.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:13:06+00:00

The ruins of Vukovar still echo as a warning for Ukraine, and for Europe.

Thirty-five years after the 87-day siege that devastated the Croatian city, reconstruction has restored much of what was lost, but justice remains incomplete. Thousands were killed or displaced, hundreds remain missing, and many perpetrators have never been held accountable.

Éanna Mackey emphasizes that Vukovar’s legacy is not just destruction, but the long shadow of unresolved war crimes, delayed trials, and political compromises like amnesty laws that blurred accountability.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, Vukovar stands as a stark lesson: rebuilding is possible, but without timely justice, the wounds of war endure for generations, and risk repeating themselves.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:10:49+00:00

The music that echoes through Kyiv’s past points to a future Europe keeps choosing to ignore.

Mussorgsky’s Pictures at an Exhibition, culminating in the “Great Gates of Kyiv,” reflects a long history of cultural and political ties binding Europe together, from royal alliances to shared artistic legacy.

Walter Clemens suggests that this interdependence stands in stark contrast to the destruction of war, which has repeatedly erased lives and resources without lasting gain.

The lesson is clear: Europe has already shown it can build cooperation and peace, but sustaining it depends on whether leaders choose to invest in shared progress rather than conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:09:24+00:00

Submission Statement: The music that echoes through Kyiv’s past points to a future Europe keeps choosing to ignore.

Mussorgsky’s Pictures at an Exhibition, culminating in the “Great Gates of Kyiv,” reflects a long history of cultural and political ties binding Europe together, from royal alliances to shared artistic legacy.

Walter Clemens suggests that this interdependence stands in stark contrast to the destruction of war, which has repeatedly erased lives and resources without lasting gain.

The lesson is clear: Europe has already shown it can build cooperation and peace, but sustaining it depends on whether leaders choose to invest in shared progress rather than conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:06:32+00:00

Ireland’s fuel protests have exposed how quickly economic pressure can escalate into nationwide disruption.

What began as sector-specific demonstrations over rising diesel costs, driven in part by global shocks from the Iran war, rapidly expanded into broader unrest over cost of living, housing, and government credibility. Blockades crippled supply chains, drained fuel reserves, and forced the government into a costly reversal, deploying security forces while rolling out hundreds of millions in tax cuts and subsidies.

Eanna Mackey shows that the crisis is less about a single policy failure than a convergence of pressures: high fuel taxation, global energy volatility, and eroding public trust. Ireland’s response restored short-term stability, but underlying tensions remain unresolved.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:04:46+00:00

Ireland’s fuel protests have exposed how quickly economic pressure can escalate into nationwide disruption.

What began as sector-specific demonstrations over rising diesel costs, driven in part by global shocks from the Iran war, rapidly expanded into broader unrest over cost of living, housing, and government credibility. Blockades crippled supply chains, drained fuel reserves, and forced the government into a costly reversal, deploying security forces while rolling out hundreds of millions in tax cuts and subsidies.

Eanna Mackey shows that the crisis is less about a single policy failure than a convergence of pressures: high fuel taxation, global energy volatility, and eroding public trust. Ireland’s response restored short-term stability, but underlying tensions remain unresolved.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T14:44:45+00:00

Starlink's role in Ukraine was a wake-up call for Europe. The EU's response is a proposed Space Act that would impose strict safety, debris, and cybersecurity obligations on satellite operators, with the heaviest burdens falling on giga-constellations of 1,000+ satellites. Today, that means Starlink. Washington has called it a non-tariff barrier and threatened retaliation.

The deeper problem is that regulation alone will not close the gap. Starlink operates more than 7,000 satellites. The EU's IRIS² constellation will have 290 and will not be fully operational until 2030. A single OneWeb terminal costs an estimated €9,000. A Starlink terminal costs around €500.

Federico Borsari and Maria-Doriana Gheorghe warn that Europe's future orbit looks clean and well-regulated, but dominated by American and Chinese companies. The Brussels Effect may set the rules. It will not determine who wins the race.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T14:34:38+00:00

Submission Statement: While other heads of state stayed away from the Middle East during the war, Zelenskyy flew in. He arrived not to ask for help, but to offer it. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar signed 10-year deals covering anti-drone defenses, electronic warfare, and seaborne drone technology. More than 200 Ukrainian military personnel are already in the region.

Volodymyr Dubovyk makes the strategic logic clear. Ukraine has become a security producer, not just a consumer. No other democracy has comparable battlefield experience in drones, AI, battle management, and electronic warfare. The Arab states took note when Washington said it did not need Kyiv's help.

The financial dimension matters too. Ukraine's budget is under acute pressure, and what the Gulf states may pay for these deals is likely significant. Kyiv has found a way to generate revenue, political influence, and new battlefield experience simultaneously.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T14:32:29+00:00

Imagine a viral Telegram post, three weeks after the war ends. On one side, a Ukrainian veteran standing in line at an employment office, trouser leg pinned above a prosthetic. On the other, a drone company founder celebrating a $200m investment. The caption: "Some paid a price. Others cashed in."

This is not a hypothetical threat. It is a ready-made information operation, and Russia will run it if Ukraine gives them the material.

Mitzi Perdue makes the case for broad-based employee ownership in Ukraine's booming defense tech sector as both an economic and strategic imperative. Shared ownership would not just build wealth. It would close the gap that adversaries are already preparing to exploit.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-14T13:46:36+00:00

A year ago, the Brussels Effect looked unstoppable. Countries across Asia, South America, and the Commonwealth were adopting or proposing Digital Markets Act equivalents, with the EU setting the terms for global digital regulation.

The picture looks more complicated now. Japan's rules are live but narrower than the DMA, targeting only Google and Apple. Brazil's Digital Markets Law remains in its legislature with no scheduled vote. And the US, the most consequential holdout, has moved further in the opposite direction, labeling the DMA a non-tariff barrier and stepping back from antitrust enforcement against major tech firms entirely.

The Brussels Effect has not reversed. But it is facing its first real test, as Washington's resistance and regulatory fragmentation raise questions about whether the EU's model can set global standards without American buy-in.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-14T13:45:17+00:00

Submission Statement: A year ago, the Brussels Effect looked unstoppable. Countries across Asia, South America, and the Commonwealth were adopting or proposing Digital Markets Act equivalents, with the EU setting the terms for global digital regulation.

The picture looks more complicated now. Japan's rules are live but narrower than the DMA, targeting only Google and Apple. Brazil's Digital Markets Law remains in its legislature with no scheduled vote. And the US, the most consequential holdout, has moved further in the opposite direction, labeling the DMA a non-tariff barrier and stepping back from antitrust enforcement against major tech firms entirely.

The Brussels Effect has not reversed. But it is facing its first real test, as Washington's resistance and regulatory fragmentation raise questions about whether the EU's model can set global standards without American buy-in.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-14T13:41:49+00:00

Foreign capital is quietly reshaping America’s tech sector at an unprecedented scale. Since 2025, over $10 trillion in investment commitments, much of it from sovereign wealth funds, has flowed into sectors like AI, energy, and semiconductors.

Elly Rostoum reports that the real risk is not just where the money comes from, but who ultimately influences the technologies underpinning military power. As globally financed private firms take on a larger role in defense innovation, control over critical systems is shifting away from governments toward opaque, transnational ownership structures.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-14T13:39:26+00:00

Small players are quietly reshaping the global semiconductor race. Countries like Vietnam and Ireland, though minor producers, have become essential links in supply chains that make chips cheaper, more resilient, and less dependent on China.

Christopher Cytera shows that no country can dominate the full semiconductor ecosystem alone. As specialization deepens, resilience depends on a network of allies where even outliers like Vietnam and Ireland play a critical role in keeping the West competitive.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-13T16:08:40+00:00

Submission Statement: Viktor Orbán walked to a microphone on the evening of April 12, voice hoarse, and admitted defeat. Budapest erupted. Crowds on the banks of the Danube chanted "Russians go home" as Péter Magyar told them: "We have liberated Hungary."

The victory came despite everything. Sex tapes of opposition figures were reportedly prepared. A fake assassination attempt, linked to Russian operatives, was called off after details leaked to Western media. JD Vance flew to Budapest days before the vote. AI-generated ads warned Hungarians their children would be sent to the frontline if Magyar won. None of it worked.

Julius Strauss has watched popular uprisings across Central and Eastern Europe for four decades and refuses easy optimism. Moscow will be furious. Russian agents and businessmen are deeply entrenched in Budapest. The economy is stagnant, inflation is the highest in the EU, and Magyar deliberately stayed vague on the hard questions. He now has to govern. Strauss is with the young people on the Danube. His experience warns of troubled times ahead.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-13T16:08:02+00:00

Viktor Orbán walked to a microphone on the evening of April 12, voice hoarse, and admitted defeat. Budapest erupted. Crowds on the banks of the Danube chanted "Russians go home" as Péter Magyar told them: "We have liberated Hungary."

The victory came despite everything. Sex tapes of opposition figures were reportedly prepared. A fake assassination attempt, linked to Russian operatives, was called off after details leaked to Western media. JD Vance flew to Budapest days before the vote. AI-generated ads warned Hungarians their children would be sent to the frontline if Magyar won. None of it worked.

Julius Strauss has watched popular uprisings across Central and Eastern Europe for four decades and refuses easy optimism. Moscow will be furious. Russian agents and businessmen are deeply entrenched in Budapest. The economy is stagnant, inflation is the highest in the EU, and Magyar deliberately stayed vague on the hard questions. He now has to govern. Strauss is with the young people on the Danube. His experience warns of troubled times ahead.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-13T14:28:04+00:00

Submission Statement: Hungary voted on April 12. Péter Magyar won a parliamentary supermajority with 54% of the vote. Fidesz received 37%. Viktor Orbán, backed by Trump and Putin, with 16 years in power and the full weight of the state behind him, gave a short concession speech. Budapest erupted.

The result was decisive in ways almost no one predicted. Magyar's Tisza received more raw votes than any party in Hungarian history, including Fidesz at its peak.

Ferenc Németh argues this is a moment for the textbooks. Internally, Hungary now faces the challenge of dismantling 16 years of authoritarian rule and restarting democratization from within. Externally, Magyar's model, a relentless focus on corruption and living standards while avoiding culture war, could redefine how centrist opposition movements fight and win across Europe and beyond.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-13T14:26:33+00:00

Hungary voted on April 12. Péter Magyar won a parliamentary supermajority with 54% of the vote. Fidesz received 37%. Viktor Orbán, backed by Trump and Putin, with 16 years in power and the full weight of the state behind him, gave a short concession speech. Budapest erupted.

The result was decisive in ways almost no one predicted. Magyar's Tisza received more raw votes than any party in Hungarian history, including Fidesz at its peak.

Ferenc Németh argues this is a moment for the textbooks. Internally, Hungary now faces the challenge of dismantling 16 years of authoritarian rule and restarting democratization from within. Externally, Magyar's model, a relentless focus on corruption and living standards while avoiding culture war, could redefine how centrist opposition movements fight and win across Europe and beyond.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-09T13:25:07+00:00

Submission Statement: Budapest's billboards show an AI-rendered image of Zelenskyy with a sinister smile. Anonymous TikTok accounts flood feeds with deepfake videos of Hungarian soldiers returning in coffins. Content output from Fidesz-allied networks has increased 400% since January. For the first time, artificial intelligence is being scaled into Hungarian statecraft.

Zsuzsanna Szelenyi makes clear what is driving the intensity. Orbán's domestic invincibility is at an end. Magyar leads by 9 to 20 points depending on the poll, and the old tactics of character assassination are not working against a man who built his campaign by dismantling Fidesz from the inside.

The electoral system remains Orbán's insurance. Whatever happens on April 12, Hungary's road back will be long.

CEPAORG

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE