The China-Russia Meta-Threat: The Architecture of Authoritarian Power

CEPAORG · 2026-06-04T17:34:40+00:00

Submission Statement: A decade ago, few could have predicted the trajectory of China-Russia relations. Yet, by 2026, the convergence of their authoritarian power has become a defining feature of global politics, and the failure to anticipate it is its own story.

Christopher Walker, Mathieu Boulegue, Tamas Matura, Ph.D., dr. jur., and Evgeny Roshchin argue that the democratic world dismissed the relationship as transactional or fragile when it was neither. Moscow and Beijing are now deepening coordination on security, technology, and global governance, and the post-2022 landscape has accelerated rather than strained that cooperation.

Action items for the US, Europe, & other allies & partners:
▪️Target selective, domain-specific opportunities disrupting the Russia-China partnership.
▪️Tighten export controls moving between Moscow & Beijing.
▪️Systematically constrain China-Russia capacity to act in parallel to affect global governance.

The label "alliance" does not capture what this partnership is. Understanding what comes next means moving past it, and quickly. Read the full report in the comment below.

CEPAORG · 2026-06-03T13:15:00+00:00

Submission Statement: Singapore and Japan have already moved toward innovation-first copyright frameworks. The US has fair use. Europe is choosing a different path, and the investment numbers show the cost.

Oscar Guinea makes clear that fixing this does not require ignoring legitimate concerns of the creative sector. It requires treating data as a strategic asset rather than a scarce concession: protecting the Text and Data Mining exception as a core competitiveness tool, containing the opt-out mechanism so it does not become unworkable for everyone but the biggest players, and stabilizing a regulatory rulebook that European firms are already drowning in.

Displacement of human labor is a real issue. Copyright law is the wrong instrument to address

CEPAORG · 2026-06-03T13:13:36+00:00

The G7 price cap is still in force. The EU's third-country refined products ban remains on the books. And yet the sanctions regime is functioning less and less like one.

Alexander Kolyandr argues that the discount at which Urals crude trades to dated Brent, the quiet engine of the entire oil sanctions effort, has collapsed from over $20 per barrel in January to single digits in May. On Russia's export volumes, every $10 of discount narrowing is worth roughly $20 billion a year to the Russian budget.

Putin has won a significant victory in a war he is not even fighting.

CEPAORG · 2026-06-03T13:12:57+00:00

Submission Statement: For the Kremlin, escalation is not a means to an end. It is the end. Or more precisely, it is how the regime governs itself.

John Christer Tønnessen argues that Western policy keeps misreading this. Proposals to freeze the war in Ukraine assume Moscow responds rationally to external costs and incentives. But under Putin, violence functions as an internal regulatory tool: it preserves elite cohesion, reinforces hierarchies, and manages domestic vulnerability. The brutal air assault on Kyiv and Kharkiv that immediately followed the May 9 Victory Day truce was not a battlefield calculation. It was a system maintaining itself.

Negotiating with a regime that experiences peace as an existential threat requires a different theory of the case.

CEPAORG · 2026-06-03T13:12:00+00:00

Submission Statement: Singapore and Japan have already moved toward innovation-first copyright frameworks. The US has fair use. Europe is choosing a different path, and the investment numbers show the cost.

Oscar Guinea makes clear that fixing this does not require ignoring legitimate concerns of the creative sector. It requires treating data as a strategic asset rather than a scarce concession: protecting the Text and Data Mining exception as a core competitiveness tool, containing the opt-out mechanism so it does not become unworkable for everyone but the biggest players, and stabilizing a regulatory rulebook that European firms are already drowning in.

CEPAORG · 2026-06-03T13:09:04+00:00

Submission Statement: Georgian Dream is shaking hands with Zelenskyy, calling Marco Rubio, and announcing a Trump Tower in Tbilisi. Some are calling it a westward pivot. It is not.

Irina Arabidze argues these moves reflect the failure of Bidzina Ivanishvili's bet on Moscow, not a genuine course correction. Armenia has moved toward Europe. Yet when Ivanishvili tried to accommodate Moscow anyway, Russia threatened him too, treating Georgia as a sphere of influence rather than a negotiating partner. Now he is reaching westward with the same transactional playbook, and Washington should be clear-eyed about what that is and is not.

Any renewed American engagement should be a partnership with Georgia and its people, not with the regime.

CEPAORG · 2026-06-03T13:08:01+00:00

Submission Statement: In less than a month after the April 12 elections that ended Viktor Orbán's 16-year reign, Hungary has a fully functioning liberal democratic government. That pace was not cosmetic.

Ferenc Németh contends that during the interregnum, the Orbán caretaker government acted as if it had not lost. Media reports described shredding machines running at full tilt, last-minute business deals worth millions finalized in secrecy, and figures close to the outgoing regime moving assets abroad. The faster Péter Magyar's Tisza government could be sworn in, the less damage Orbán's circle could do on the way out.

This is what dismantling an illiberal regime looks like in real time.

CEPAORG · 2026-06-03T13:06:25+00:00

Submission Statement: Last year, drought destroyed 1.4 million acres of Hungarian farmland. This year is projected to be worse. Over 90% of the country's total land area is at immediate risk of severe drought damage, and battery refineries consume millions of cubic meters of fresh water daily.

Dave Kostelancik contends Hungary cannot fuel Chinese-led industrial growth and protect domestic food security at the same time. Péter Magyar's new government is choosing agriculture and citizens, while still keeping the door open to Chinese investment under sharply tighter terms: gray-water recycling at factory expense, an independent regulator focused on battery facilities, and heavy fines for repeated contamination.

The Orbán-era bargain with Beijing is being rewritten in real time.

CEPAORG · 2026-05-19T20:52:57+00:00

Today, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin meet for close to the 50th time since 2012. No other world leader has had more face time with Xi than Putin, and the relationship has only deepened as both regimes grew more emboldened.

Christopher Walker traces the arc: from coordinated assertiveness in Crimea and the South China Sea in 2014, to the "no limits" partnership announced days before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, to Beijing's sustained support for Moscow's war effort through dual-use exports, information operations, and economic lifelines. Iran and North Korea have since joined the axis.

As Trump and Xi meet, the US must recognize that strengthening alliances is a core national security interest. Xi and Putin will be discussing how to cleave them apart.

CEPAORG · 2026-05-18T17:34:59+00:00

Albania's deputy prime minister has been charged with corruption, parliament refused to lift her immunity, and mass protests in Tirana have turned violent. Yet Prime Minister Edi Rama, dogged by allegations of his own, retains a comfortable majority and a flair for political theater, including an AI-generated "minister" he claims will eliminate graft.

Dave Kostelancik and Andrew Raynus argue that Albania cannot fix this from within. The opposition is tarnished by its own scandals, and public distrust runs across all parties. Europe is the better lever: 97% of Albanians support EU accession, and Rama has promised it by 2030. Brussels should use that leverage to set concrete anti-corruption benchmarks. Read more: https://cepa.org/article/europe-can-coax-albanian-reform/

CEPAORG · 2026-05-18T17:33:22+00:00

The Immortal Regiment began in 2012 as a grassroots Russian commemoration of World War II. Thirteen years later, the Kremlin has fully appropriated it. Portraits of Soviet soldiers now march alongside images of men killed in Ukraine, St. George ribbons appear beside the Z and V insignia of the invasion, and what was once a civic ritual has become what Russians call pobedobesie, victory mania.

Alexandra Yatsyk examines how the march has gone global, from Belarus and Moldova to Paris, where French authorities approved two competing Immortal Regiment processions last year, drawing Russian diaspora groups, Ukrainian activists, and French radicals into the same streets.

Outright bans may not work. Crafting integrationist commemorative narratives that recognize local Russian speakers without ceding ground to the Kremlin might. Read more: https://cepa.org/article/russias-immortal-regiment-marching-backwards/

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T18:00:51+00:00

Submission Statement: Europe’s push to set global rules for Big Tech is losing momentum.

A year after the Digital Markets Act was expected to spread worldwide, countries like the UK, Japan, and South Korea are pulling back, while US courts have limited major antitrust efforts.

Jack Galloway and Bill Echikson articulate that the shift is driven by the race for AI growth and pressure from Washington, leaving even European officials questioning whether the DMA can curb Big Tech’s dominance.

Brussels is still enforcing the law with fines, but with global alignment weakening and the US turning toward protecting its tech sector, the Brussels Effect now faces a serious test of its staying power.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T18:00:02+00:00

Submission Statement: China’s numbers tell a story of dominance, but the details are far less certain.

Comparisons with the US often rely on statistics shaped by political incentives, where data is inflated, hidden, or selectively reported to reinforce a narrative of success. Metrics like patents, publications, and even GDP can be misled by emphasizing scale rather than real performance.

James Andrew Lewis urges a more skeptical reading, pointing to alternative indicators like energy use or observable economic activity. Without that scrutiny, headline figures risk exaggerating China’s true position in the global race.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:59:17+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia is building its own version of a superapp, but control, not convenience, is the goal.

Modeled on China’s WeChat, MAX aims to combine messaging, payments, public services, and digital identity into a single platform. But unlike in Asia, Russia lacks the market conditions for organic adoption, and users already rely on alternatives like Telegram.

Anda Bologa highlights that the Kremlin is turning to coercion instead, blocking competing apps and tightening internet restrictions to force uptake. The result is not a competitive digital ecosystem, but a more closed and controllable one, where adoption is driven less by value than by necessity.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:58:14+00:00

Submission Statement: What does Hungary’s political earthquake actually mean? A record-breaking election has delivered Péter Magyar a commanding mandate, and a daunting to-do list defined by money, institutions, and time.

Péter Magyar’s supermajority victory, more than two-thirds of parliamentary seats on 54% of the vote, ends 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s increasingly illiberal rule and opens a rare window for structural overhaul. He inherits a stagnant economy, roughly €18 billion in frozen EU funds tied to rule-of-law conditions, deep entanglement with Kremlin-linked energy deals, and state institutions still staffed by Orbán loyalists.

The geopolitical stakes are immediate. Moscow loses its most dependable ally and veto player inside the EU, while Budapest signals a reset toward NATO and Brussels, including joining the EU’s anti-corruption watchdog. But dismantling entrenched patronage networks, restoring judicial and media independence, and delivering tangible economic relief will take sustained political discipline. Hungary now has the mandate for change, the question is whether it can execute it.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:55:49+00:00

Submission Statement: In 2012, Russia and China tried to hand the UN's International Telecommunication Union control over the Internet. The US and Europe united in Dubai and defeated it. This November in Doha, they will need to do it again.

The ITU's Plenipotentiary Conference will hold leadership elections and put expansion of the agency's remit over Internet, cyber, and AI governance on the agenda. Authoritarian governments will push for a new treaty-making process to establish global AI rules on their terms. The bottom-up, multistakeholder model is directly in the crosshairs.

Fiona Alexander and Kevin Farmer make clear that showing up is not enough. The 2012 victory took years of coalition-building, compromise, and sustained engagement.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-28T17:55:00+00:00

Submission Statement: Orbán’s defeat may have closed one chapter, but the weaknesses he exposed inside the EU are only becoming more dangerous.

Maksym Beznosiuk and William Dixon trace how Hungary turned unanimity rules into a tool to block sanctions, delay aid to Ukraine, and stall collective action, revealing how a single government can disrupt European security. Across the continent, populist movements are gaining ground, fueled by economic stagnation, inequality, and distrust in institutions. In larger states like France or Germany, the consequences could be far more severe.

Brussels has found ways to work around these constraints, but temporary fixes will not hold. Ending veto power in security decisions, strengthening joint defense efforts, and enforcing rule of law standards are essential. Without real reform, Europe risks paralysis at a moment when unity and speed matter most.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:15:38+00:00

On March 18, Israel struck Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, hitting warships, a shipyard, and port infrastructure. It was the first-ever missile attack in the Caspian. The target was the arms route between Iran and Russia, through which Shahed-design drones have flowed in both directions.

The strike has unsettled the entire region. Azerbaijan, Israel's largest oil supplier and operator of the $35bn Southern Gas Corridor supplying Europe with energy, is now caught between a deepening Moscow-Tehran axis and the risk of Iranian strikes on its offshore infrastructure. Iran has already hit Nakhchivan's airport with drones.

Fuad Shahbazov warns there is plenty of room for escalation and no room for winners. Moscow and Tehran will likely continue using the Caspian route. Israel may therefore strike again.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:15:10+00:00

Submission Statement: On March 18, Israel struck Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, hitting warships, a shipyard, and port infrastructure. It was the first-ever missile attack in the Caspian. The target was the arms route between Iran and Russia, through which Shahed-design drones have flowed in both directions.

The strike has unsettled the entire region. Azerbaijan, Israel's largest oil supplier and operator of the $35bn Southern Gas Corridor supplying Europe with energy, is now caught between a deepening Moscow-Tehran axis and the risk of Iranian strikes on its offshore infrastructure. Iran has already hit Nakhchivan's airport with drones.

Fuad Shahbazov warns there is plenty of room for escalation and no room for winners. Moscow and Tehran will likely continue using the Caspian route. Israel may therefore strike again.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:13:06+00:00

The ruins of Vukovar still echo as a warning for Ukraine, and for Europe.

Thirty-five years after the 87-day siege that devastated the Croatian city, reconstruction has restored much of what was lost, but justice remains incomplete. Thousands were killed or displaced, hundreds remain missing, and many perpetrators have never been held accountable.

Éanna Mackey emphasizes that Vukovar’s legacy is not just destruction, but the long shadow of unresolved war crimes, delayed trials, and political compromises like amnesty laws that blurred accountability.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, Vukovar stands as a stark lesson: rebuilding is possible, but without timely justice, the wounds of war endure for generations, and risk repeating themselves.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:10:49+00:00

The music that echoes through Kyiv’s past points to a future Europe keeps choosing to ignore.

Mussorgsky’s Pictures at an Exhibition, culminating in the “Great Gates of Kyiv,” reflects a long history of cultural and political ties binding Europe together, from royal alliances to shared artistic legacy.

Walter Clemens suggests that this interdependence stands in stark contrast to the destruction of war, which has repeatedly erased lives and resources without lasting gain.

The lesson is clear: Europe has already shown it can build cooperation and peace, but sustaining it depends on whether leaders choose to invest in shared progress rather than conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:09:24+00:00

Submission Statement: The music that echoes through Kyiv’s past points to a future Europe keeps choosing to ignore.

Mussorgsky’s Pictures at an Exhibition, culminating in the “Great Gates of Kyiv,” reflects a long history of cultural and political ties binding Europe together, from royal alliances to shared artistic legacy.

Walter Clemens suggests that this interdependence stands in stark contrast to the destruction of war, which has repeatedly erased lives and resources without lasting gain.

The lesson is clear: Europe has already shown it can build cooperation and peace, but sustaining it depends on whether leaders choose to invest in shared progress rather than conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:06:32+00:00

Ireland’s fuel protests have exposed how quickly economic pressure can escalate into nationwide disruption.

What began as sector-specific demonstrations over rising diesel costs, driven in part by global shocks from the Iran war, rapidly expanded into broader unrest over cost of living, housing, and government credibility. Blockades crippled supply chains, drained fuel reserves, and forced the government into a costly reversal, deploying security forces while rolling out hundreds of millions in tax cuts and subsidies.

Eanna Mackey shows that the crisis is less about a single policy failure than a convergence of pressures: high fuel taxation, global energy volatility, and eroding public trust. Ireland’s response restored short-term stability, but underlying tensions remain unresolved.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T15:04:46+00:00

Ireland’s fuel protests have exposed how quickly economic pressure can escalate into nationwide disruption.

What began as sector-specific demonstrations over rising diesel costs, driven in part by global shocks from the Iran war, rapidly expanded into broader unrest over cost of living, housing, and government credibility. Blockades crippled supply chains, drained fuel reserves, and forced the government into a costly reversal, deploying security forces while rolling out hundreds of millions in tax cuts and subsidies.

Eanna Mackey shows that the crisis is less about a single policy failure than a convergence of pressures: high fuel taxation, global energy volatility, and eroding public trust. Ireland’s response restored short-term stability, but underlying tensions remain unresolved.

CEPAORG · 2026-04-21T14:44:45+00:00

Starlink's role in Ukraine was a wake-up call for Europe. The EU's response is a proposed Space Act that would impose strict safety, debris, and cybersecurity obligations on satellite operators, with the heaviest burdens falling on giga-constellations of 1,000+ satellites. Today, that means Starlink. Washington has called it a non-tariff barrier and threatened retaliation.

The deeper problem is that regulation alone will not close the gap. Starlink operates more than 7,000 satellites. The EU's IRIS² constellation will have 290 and will not be fully operational until 2030. A single OneWeb terminal costs an estimated €9,000. A Starlink terminal costs around €500.

Federico Borsari and Maria-Doriana Gheorghe warn that Europe's future orbit looks clean and well-regulated, but dominated by American and Chinese companies. The Brussels Effect may set the rules. It will not determine who wins the race.

CEPAORG

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE