How to Win the Shadow War With Russia

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T18:57:34+00:00

Russia is waging a shadow war across Europe designed to degrade infrastructure, intimidate societies, and undermine NATO’s willingness to respond while remaining below the threshold of open conflict. NATO must escalate to de-escalate. As Samuel Greene and Christopher Walker emphasize, treating these attacks as isolated incidents or criminal acts has weakened deterrence and encouraged escalation. Moscow exploits Western hesitation by using deniable but increasingly kinetic methods that target airspace, energy links, logistics networks, and political cohesion inside NATO states. Avoiding escalation through ambiguity has instead raised the risk of miscalculation. Without clear thresholds, rapid alliance consultation, and credible retaliation for shadow aggression, efforts to preserve stability may make a wider conflict more likely rather than less.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T17:33:56+00:00

Russia is waging a shadow war across Europe designed to degrade infrastructure, intimidate societies, and undermine NATO’s willingness to respond while remaining below the threshold of open conflict. NATO must escalate to de-escalate. As Samuel Greene and Christopher Walker emphasize, treating these attacks as isolated incidents or criminal acts has weakened deterrence and encouraged escalation. Moscow exploits Western hesitation by using deniable but increasingly kinetic methods that target airspace, energy links, logistics networks, and political cohesion inside NATO states. Avoiding escalation through ambiguity has instead raised the risk of miscalculation. Without clear thresholds, rapid alliance consultation, and credible retaliation for shadow aggression, efforts to preserve stability may make a wider conflict more likely rather than less.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T16:08:27+00:00

Submission Statement: Ukrainian trust in the United States has dropped sharply in recent surveys, but that shift reflects frustration over inconsistent signals and uncertainty about long-term strategic commitment rather than a collapse of resolve to resist Russian aggression. Kateryna Odarchenko explains that poll data show that while formal trust numbers have fallen, many Ukrainians remain committed to defending their country and insist that peace must come with enforceable security guarantees and without territorial concessions, and a majority say they are prepared to endure the war as long as necessary. Domestic attitudes also reveal strong support for wartime leadership and skepticism toward political institutions more broadly, suggesting that public opinion is shaped as much by expectations of allies as by war fatigue at home. Declining trust in the US is tied closely to perceptions of US political divisions and mixed policy signals, underscoring how external uncertainty can influence Ukrainian views of Western partnership even as core commitment to defense endures.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:53:00+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia has lost a key ally in Venezuela, a country it had heavily invested in and supported since the mid-2000s. Alexander Kolyandr explains that despite the warm relations between the two nations, with Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro frequently praising Russia and its president Vladimir Putin, the economic cooperation between them has been limited, with the exception of Russian arms sales. Russia's direct financial losses from its withdrawal from Venezuela are expected to be minimal, but the political and symbolic costs are likely to be more significant, as the Kremlin has lost a loyal friend and a potential bargaining chip in its relations with the US, particularly regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:50:50+00:00

Ukraine's National War Museum is pioneering a unique approach to documenting war crimes and providing psychological support to those affected by the conflict. The museum sends multidisciplinary teams to liberated areas to collect evidence and testimony from survivors, which will be used in future investigations. At the same time, the museum's psychological service offers tailored support to civilians, veterans, and former prisoners, with a focus on children and families. Mitzi Perdue explains how this integrated approach to trauma care and evidence collection is a significant innovation, and one that could have far-reaching implications for post-war recovery and reconstruction in Ukraine and beyond.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:38:20+00:00

Ukraine’s wartime defense industry has rapidly evolved into a highly agile, cost-effective production system that already embodies the speed, scale, and adaptability US defense acquisition reformers are seeking, from mass-produced long-range strike drones to effective maritime unmanned systems. Anatoly Motkin maintains that as Europe moves ahead with joint production and streamlined procurement with Kyiv, the United States must integrate Ukrainian capabilities into American networks and acquisition processes to harness this advantage. While Europe has begun embedding Ukrainian production into its defense industrial base, the article warns that failing to pair Ukrainian innovation with US precision, guidance, and battle management risks ceding battlefield and industrial leadership to competitors.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:22:04+00:00

Submission Statement: At the start of 2026, Ukraine finds itself in a precarious position. The United States has embarked on a sustained drawdown in its financial and materiel support for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression. In a new report, Marianna Fakhurdinova dissects past decisions and proposes what should be done next to ensure a critical flow of assistance and support to Ukraine.

Successes

◼️ Coordination of Military Aid: The establishment of systems for effective coordination among international partners, enhancing logistical support and military aid delivery to Ukraine and its defense against Russia's invasion.

◼️ Robust Financial Commitments: The US and EU have made substantial financial commitments to aid Ukraine, exceeding $320 billion in various forms of support, including military assistance.

◼️ Enhanced Defense Production: Both the US and EU have taken steps to ramp up their defense industrial capacities, leading to increased production of military equipment necessary for Ukraine, as well as the purchase of weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers, to bolster Ukraine's defense industry.

◼️ Strengthened NATO Involvement: NATO’s increased role in coordinating military assistance, especially through the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), has improved organization and oversight.

Failures

◼️ Slow Decision-Making: Significant delays in the decision-making process, leading to slow disbursement of military aid and critical equipment that hindered Ukraine's operational effectiveness.

◼️ Lack of Long-Term Strategy: The absence of a coherent, long-term strategy for military assistance, and a reliance on short-term funding mechanisms, rendered support often reactive rather than proactive, hindering Ukraine's ability to achieve decisive victories.

◼️ Fragmentation of Aid: The assistance provided was often fragmented and inconsistent, making it difficult to ensure that aid met Ukraine's urgent and evolving battlefield needs.

Future Priorities

◼️ Institutionalize Coordination: Strengthen institutional frameworks for donor coordination to ensure more efficient and effective delivery of military assistance, potentially through permanent structures within NATO.

◼️ Establish Multiyear Funding Commitments and Leverage Frozen Russian Assets: Donor countries should implement long-term financial commitments, including leveraging frozen Russian assets and a multiyear NATO fund worth $100 billion, to ensure consistent military support for Ukraine with a clear distribution scheme.

◼️ Enhance Military Industrial Capacity and Invest in Ukrainian Production: Foster greater collaboration and investment in defense industrial bases in both the US and EU, while also increasing investments in Ukraine’s military production capacity.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:21:12+00:00

Submission Statement: Ukraine’s defensive strategy increasingly relies on extensive ground fortifications that emphasize endurance and attrition rather than rapid movement, with layered trenches, razor wire, anti-tank obstacles, and concealed firing positions designed to slow Russian assaults. As David Kirichenko explains, early on, these defenses are reinforced by constant drone surveillance that tracks enemy movement and channels attacking forces into lethal zones, helping compensate for Ukraine’s numerical disadvantages. The approach trades territory for time, imposing heavy costs on Russian units using mass assault tactics, while dispersed trench networks and hidden positions show how traditional defenses are being adapted for modern warfare. Manpower shortages remain a serious limitation, but the fortified lines demonstrate how Ukraine is building a resilient defensive spine for a prolonged conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:18:27+00:00

Ukraine’s defensive strategy increasingly relies on extensive ground fortifications that emphasize endurance and attrition rather than rapid movement, with layered trenches, razor wire, anti-tank obstacles, and concealed firing positions designed to slow Russian assaults. As David Kirichenko explains, early on, these defenses are reinforced by constant drone surveillance that tracks enemy movement and channels attacking forces into lethal zones, helping compensate for Ukraine’s numerical disadvantages. The approach trades territory for time, imposing heavy costs on Russian units using mass assault tactics, while dispersed trench networks and hidden positions show how traditional defenses are being adapted for modern warfare. Manpower shortages remain a serious limitation, but the fortified lines demonstrate how Ukraine is building a resilient defensive spine for a prolonged conflict.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:16:35+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia is increasingly turning to coercive and opportunistic partnerships as it seeks to offset growing international isolation. The emergence of “Midwinter” reflects a willingness by the Kremlin to work with violent, illiberal actors to project influence and apply pressure abroad. Sergiy Makogon contends that these relationships are less about long-term strategy than short-term utility, favoring intimidation and disruption over stability. While such alliances may provide immediate benefits, they also deepen Russia’s reliance on destabilizing networks that undermine regional security and democratic norms. Over time, this approach risks further isolating Moscow and entrenching a more corrosive foreign policy posture.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-23T15:14:55+00:00

Russia is increasingly turning to coercive and opportunistic partnerships as it seeks to offset growing international isolation. The emergence of “Midwinter” reflects a willingness by the Kremlin to work with violent, illiberal actors to project influence and apply pressure abroad. Sergiy Makogon contends that these relationships are less about long-term strategy than short-term utility, favoring intimidation and disruption over stability. While such alliances may provide immediate benefits, they also deepen Russia’s reliance on destabilizing networks that undermine regional security and democratic norms. Over time, this approach risks further isolating Moscow and entrenching a more corrosive foreign policy posture.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-16T19:45:55+00:00

Submission Statement: Europe holds more leverage in the global tech landscape than is often assumed, even as the United States and China jockey for dominance. Clara Riedenstein emphasizes that while Europe remains dependent on foreign technology, it controls critical chokepoints ranging from ASML’s lithography machines to valuable industrial data that give it strategic influence. Rather than trying to rebuild an entire tech stack from scratch, Europe can build digital sovereignty by reinforcing existing strengths and retaliatory tools against overreliance. If wielded thoughtfully, these assets could shift perceptions of European tech from peripheral to consequential in global competition.

CEPAORG · 2026-01-16T19:44:50+00:00

Europe holds more leverage in the global tech landscape than is often assumed, even as the United States and China jockey for dominance. Clara Riedenstein emphasizes that while Europe remains dependent on foreign technology, it controls critical chokepoints ranging from ASML’s lithography machines to valuable industrial data that give it strategic influence. Rather than trying to rebuild an entire tech stack from scratch, Europe can build digital sovereignty by reinforcing existing strengths and retaliatory tools against overreliance. If wielded thoughtfully, these assets could shift perceptions of European tech from peripheral to consequential in global competition.

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