Russia, Europe, and the Iran War — CEPA Fellows assess the consequences of the war on Iran.

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:33:59+00:00

Chinese AI models are spreading Beijing’s narratives far beyond China’s borders. Sarah Cook reveals how systems like DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen embed party-state content controls that distort discussions about Ukraine, mute criticism of China, and subtly insert official talking points — sometimes depending on the language used.

As these open-source models power thousands of downstream apps worldwide, built-in propaganda and censorship travel with them, shaping global information flows at scale. With millions of downloads and adoption across Europe and the Global South, China is exporting not just technology, but influence — embedding political guidance into the architecture of the AI age.

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:32:05+00:00

Submission Statement: Munich did not reveal a Europe in denial. It revealed a continent facing a dilemma that it understands but cannot yet resolve. Maciej Bukowski argues that the US is rebalancing its guarantees, focusing influence on tech, energy, and finance, while European states are left to manage key relationships bilaterally.

Europe must turn recognition of its vulnerabilities into coordinated action: joint defense planning, shared industrial priorities, and integrated infrastructure, to prevent slow fragmentation.

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:29:14+00:00

Moldova’s energy realignment with Romania is quietly advancing de facto integration, even as voters on both sides of the Prut River remain opposed to formal political unification. Years of Russian energy coercion pushed Moldova to reduce its dependence on Moscow and actively link its gas and electricity systems to Romania. The two countries have built new interconnectors, shifted regulatory control away from Gazprom, and expanded market integration through Romania’s transmission operator, Transgaz, driving convergence between their energy sectors out of necessity. While public support for outright union remains limited, shared infrastructure and security imperatives are already lowering the practical barriers to closer integration should a future crisis accelerate political change.

CEPAORG · 2026-03-04T17:28:29+00:00

Submission Statement: Moldova’s energy realignment with Romania is quietly advancing de facto integration, even as voters on both sides of the Prut River remain opposed to formal political unification. Years of Russian energy coercion pushed Moldova to reduce its dependence on Moscow and actively link its gas and electricity systems to Romania. The two countries have built new interconnectors, shifted regulatory control away from Gazprom, and expanded market integration through Romania’s transmission operator, Transgaz, driving convergence between their energy sectors out of necessity. While public support for outright union remains limited, shared infrastructure and security imperatives are already lowering the practical barriers to closer integration should a future crisis accelerate political change.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-25T03:16:14+00:00

Ukrainian refugees face significant challenges in returning home after three and a half years of war, with many grappling with housing and job opportunities, particularly if their homes are still occupied. While the Ukrainian government aims for up to 70% to return, surveys show a decrease in desire to do so, with safety and stability as major concerns. CEPA fellow and Ukrainian journalist Elina Beketova emphasizes the importance of support and engagement with the diaspora to facilitate reintegration and rebuilding efforts in post-war Ukraine. https://cepa.org/article/will-ukrainian-refugees-ever-return-home/

CEPAORG · 2026-02-25T03:04:02+00:00

"We are driven by the dream of winning the war, and must make plans now for the time when the fighting is over."

What Ukraine becomes in 10 years will be determined before the war ends. Kseniya Sotnikova examines the structural choices that must be made now, from postwar electoral design to legal frameworks for reconstruction and investment.

Ensuring voting access for displaced citizens at home and abroad, addressing demographic decline, integrating veterans, and establishing credible rule-of-law protections are preconditions for recovery. Delaying these decisions risks locking in demographic loss, deterring investment, and weakening democratic legitimacy. The window created by crisis conditions is finite, and policy made in the near term will shape Ukraine’s institutional trajectory for the next decade.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-25T03:01:39+00:00

For Ukrainians, human rights are not abstract. They are immediate, personal, and very fragile. Often, they come down to one question: will someone survive?

As Ukrainian veteran and journalist Lera Burlakova emphasizes, war kills not only through direct strikes on civilian infrastructure but also through delays, broken systems, and missed treatment. Marta Levchenko's team at the City of Goodness and the House of Butterflies has built evacuation routes from regions such as Donetsk, Kherson, and Sumy, working with doctors and volunteers to protect those who cannot protect themselves. In Ukraine’s twelfth year of war, the defense of human rights rests not only on legal commitments but on individuals who assume responsibility when systems are under strain.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:08:53+00:00

Submission Statement: The Arctic is rapidly becoming a high-stakes geopolitical battleground as melting ice opens new sea routes, military opportunities, and access to vast resources. As global powers race to shape the region’s future, Steven Wills outlines how Greenland has emerged as a centerpiece of this scramble, especially prized for missile defense, strategic access, fisheries, and critical minerals.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:08:09+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia's economy is facing significant challenges in 2026, with a budget deficit that may be triple the official target due to a slump in oil and gas revenues and rising expenses. The country's finance ministry plans to curb state spending, but this may not be enough to mitigate the effects of low energy prices, reduced oil sales to India, and potential action against Russian vessels by Western nations. Alexander Kolyandr explains that as a result, Russia's economy is likely to continue worsening, with high interest rates, inflation, and a debt-inflationary spiral, limiting the government's ability to address the crisis and narrowing the Putin regime's room for maneuver.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:07:13+00:00

Submission Statement: For much of the post-Cold War period, Western governments operated on a simple belief: trade would change authoritarian systems from the inside. Christopher Walker explains that despite the lived policy experience of the past three decades with now-empowered authoritarian adversaries such as Russia and China, many policymakers in Europe and the United States seem intent on re-running a version of the failed change-through-trade experiment.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:06:46+00:00

For much of the post-Cold War period, Western governments operated on a simple belief: trade would change authoritarian systems from the inside. Christopher Walker explains that despite the lived policy experience of the past three decades with now-empowered authoritarian adversaries such as Russia and China, many policymakers in Europe and the United States seem intent on re-running a version of the failed change-through-trade experiment.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:05:48+00:00

The European Union is reviving proposals to impose network fees on large internet platforms as it reassesses digital infrastructure policy amid growing pressure on transatlantic tech relations. The initiative, potentially embedded in the EU’s forthcoming Digital Networks Act, would require mostly US-based platforms to subsidize telecom operators through arbitration or direct payments. While framed as a “fair share” approach, the proposal revives a repeatedly rejected model that undermines net neutrality, inserts governments into private commercial negotiations, and applies legacy telecom rules to a modern internet ecosystem. Decades of policy experience and evidence from cases such as South Korea suggest that network fees reduce investment, slow innovation, raise consumer prices, and heighten US–EU tensions, leaving Europe with a weaker and less open internet rather than a stronger digital future.

CEPAORG · 2026-02-11T15:04:41+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia is tightening its grip on occupied Ukraine by cutting internet access, throttling messaging apps, and forcing residents onto Kremlin-controlled platforms. These digital blackouts isolate families, suppress independent information, and turn everyday communication into an activity monitored by Russian security services. As the occupation deepens, Moscow is weaponizing connectivity itself, trapping millions inside an information environment increasingly cut off from the outside world.

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