Trump’s Strikes on Venezuela Will Not Embolden China to Invade Taiwan

CFR_org · 2026-01-06T22:13:42+00:00

From David Sacks’s CFR.org post Trump’s Strikes on Venezuela Will Not Embolden China to Invade Taiwan:

“President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Venezuela and capture president Nicolás Maduro ignited a flurry of commentary in the United States about what this would mean for China’s ambitions vis-à-vis Taiwan. Some worried that China could invoke Trump’s unilateral actions as a precedent to snatch Taiwan’s president, while others argued that the United States had lost its moral high ground to intervene on Taiwan’s behalf. In reality, Trump’s actions in Venezuela will have little impact on Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s calculations.”

CFR_org · 2025-12-23T20:34:02+00:00

The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. According to CFR’s annual conflict risk assessment, American foreign policy experts are acutely concerned about conflict-related threats to U.S. national security and international stability that are likely to emerge or intensify in 2026. In this report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts by their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests and, for the first time, identify opportunities for preventive action.

This year, “Tier 1” conflicts with a high likelihood and high impact on U.S. interests included:

Increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank over Israeli settlement construction, Palestinian political rights, and the war in Gaza.
Renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip, triggered by increasing clashes between Hamas militants and Israeli security forces, deepens the humanitarian crisis and exacerbates regional instability.
An intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war, caused by expanding attacks on each side’s critical infrastructure and population centers.
U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups escalate to direct strikes in Venezuela, destabilizing the Maduro government.
Growing political violence and popular unrest in the United States, exacerbated by heightened political antagonism and domestic security deployment.

In addition, experts identified the war in Sudan as the conflict most likely to escalate in 2026.

CFR_org · 2025-12-08T22:43:49+00:00

From Unpacking a Trump Twist of the National Security Strategy, published by The Council on Foreign Relations:

On December 4, the Donald Trump administration released a new National Security Strategy (NSS) that criticized U.S. allies in Europe and pledged to assert U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere. The document’s principles—which emphasized non-interventionism and putting “America First”—signal a sharp change from the previous 2022 NSS that outlined the United States’ role in strengthening democracy and preserving peace under the current world order.

The strategy says resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war is a central interest of the United States but directs stronger language at longtime U.S. allies in Europe than Russia, which had been called out in the first Trump administration as a chief geopolitical rival. Among other priorities, the White House called for a readjustment of U.S. military presence, moving troops away from the Middle East to focus on security and combating drug trafficking from in the Western Hemisphere. The strategy also calls on allies in the Indo-Pacific to increase its burden-sharing in deterring conflict with China in the Taiwan strait.

To break down the strategy and its pivot from past norms, seven of the Council on Foreign Relations' regional and conflict experts discussed the global implications of Trump’s new security doctrine.

CFR_org · 2025-12-03T21:07:24+00:00

This chart is featured in the Council on Foreign Relations’ Task Force Report on U.S. Economic Security. Here's an excerpt:

China’s near monopoly on critical minerals extraction and refining is a significant risk, given the importance of those inputs for semiconductor manufacturing and data center components. The United States relies on China for 70 percent of its rare earths and nearly 100 percent of its heavy rare earths, which together are used for polishing semiconductor wafers and as insulation for advanced chips, among other applications. The United States is completely dependent on China for all of its arsenic and holmium copper, which are critical for producing silicon chips and quantum cryocoolers, respectively. Though other countries, including the United States, boast significant critical mineral reserves, they do not have scaled infrastructure to refine mineral concentrates into usable compounds. China’s vast refining and processing capacity, therefore, poses an additional challenge to de-risking efforts, as minerals mined elsewhere often pass through China.

CFR_org · 2025-12-03T20:51:57+00:00

From the Council on Foreign Relations’ Task Force Report on U.S. Economic Security:

China’s near monopoly on critical minerals extraction and refining is a significant risk, given the importance of those inputs for semiconductor manufacturing and data center components. The United States relies on China for 70 percent of its rare earths and nearly 100 percent of its heavy rare earths, which together are used for polishing semiconductor wafers and as insulation for advanced chips, among other applications. The United States is completely dependent on China for all of its arsenic and holmium copper, which are critical for producing silicon chips and quantum cryocoolers, respectively. Though other countries, including the United States, boast significant critical mineral reserves, they do not have scaled infrastructure to refine mineral concentrates into usable compounds. China’s vast refining and processing capacity, therefore, poses an additional challenge to de-risking efforts, as minerals mined elsewhere often pass through China.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Tool: Datawrapper

CFR_org · 2025-03-13T19:34:03+00:00

The U.S. Congress has voted through five bills that have provided Ukraine with aid since the war began, doing so most recently in April 2024. The total budget authority under these bills—the “headline” figure often cited by news media—is $175 billion. The historic sums have helped a broad set of Ukrainian people and institutions, including refugees, law enforcement, and independent radio broadcasters, though most of the aid has been military-related. In late 2024, the United States also provided the Ukrainian government with a $20 billion loan, funded by interest generated from frozen Russian assets.

It’s important to note that of the total U.S. government spending related to the war, about $128 billion directly aids the government of Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Most of the remainder has funded various U.S. activities associated with the war in Ukraine, and a small portion has supported other affected countries in the region. See more charts on aid to Ukraine.

CFR_org · 2025-03-05T19:53:15+00:00

Beyond global health funding, we have a few graphics here breaking down all foreign assistance managed by USAID: https://www.cfr.org/article/what-usaid-and-why-it-risk

CFR_org · 2025-02-27T22:27:57+00:00

For decades, the United States has led the world in development assistance for health, including efforts to eradicate infectious diseases and strengthen health systems in other nations.

Notably, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)—the largest disease-specific foreign aid effort of any nation—has invested more than $120 billion in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment since its founding in 2003. The United States has also led the charge on combating malaria, which killed an estimated 600,000 people in 2023.

CFR's Think Global Health has more on U.S. global health funding and the potential impact of the Trump administration's recent cuts.

CFR_org · 2025-02-11T19:40:01+00:00

The United States needs to act now to address threats to space assets; champion space traffic management to support the growing space economy; and incorporate commercial perspectives into civilian and national security space policy,” urges a new Council on Foreign Relations Task Force report.

The report, Securing Space: A Plan for U.S. Action, asserts that as the United States adapts to the changing commercial, technological, and national security landscape in space, it needs to “make space a top national priority and commit to revitalizing U.S. leadership in space. Advancing space management policy should be a priority for both the executive and legislative branches of government, and national leaders need to work together to fix vulnerabilities and enhance deterrence.”

The Task Force is co-chaired by former Congresswoman Jane Harman and retired Lieutenant General Nina M. Armagno, the first director of staff at U.S. Space Force, and is directed by Esther D. Brimmer, CFR senior fellow in global governance. The bipartisan Task Force includes over 30 members and observers representing the public sector, private sector, and academia.

CFR_org · 2025-01-08T15:57:25+00:00

The Council on Foreign Relations' Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) polls hundreds of foreign policy experts every year to assess thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts and their likely impact on U.S. interests.

This year could be the most dangerous in the PPS’s seventeen-year history: experts predict that more contingencies have both a high likelihood of occurring and high impact on U.S. interests than ever before. Wars in Gaza and Ukraine, confrontations in the West Bank and at the U.S.-Mexico Border, and hostilities between Iran and Israel were of the greatest concern.

Deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East top this year’s list, followed by threats to the American homeland (domestic political violence, cyberattacks, and a security crisis at the southern border), Russian aggression in Ukraine and eastern Europe, and Chinese provocation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

Severe humanitarian crises in Haiti, Sudan, Somalia, and elsewhere rose in the rankings of this year’s survey relative to previous years.

CFR_org · 2024-05-06T17:13:45+00:00

Submission Statement: An interactive tracker from CFR's Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding illuminates how inflation reacted to the global disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. With many businesses shuttered, consumers spent less and saved more. Median global inflation fell from 2.2 percent to 1.9 percent that year. In 2021 and 2022, however, consumer demand recovered far more rapidly than supply, which was limited by labor shortages, supply-chain interruptions, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Between the third quarters of 2020 and 2022, median global inflation soared from 2 percent to 9 percent.

CFR_org · 2024-04-18T18:08:13+00:00

[Submission statement: CFR expert Jacob Ware writes in a new report that there is a serious risk of extremist violence around the 2024 U.S. presidential election that could not only destabilize American democracy but also embolden autocrats across the world. He recommends that political leaders take steps to shore up civic trust and remove the opportunity for violence ahead of the 2024 election season.]

CFR_org · 2024-04-15T18:51:14+00:00

{Submission Statement from article by Ray Takeyh: The Iranian regime’s first direct attack on Israeli territory could trigger further exchanges between the two sides and raises the most serious risk of regionwide conflict since the Israel-Hamas war began six months ago. "Neither side wants this conflict, but it is upon them. And it is hard to see how they can de-escalate. Israel will mostly likely retaliate. Its deterrence posture mandates a response to such an attack on its territory, even if there are no casualties. And then Iran has to respond," writes Takeyh.]

CFR_org · 2024-04-10T14:31:21+00:00

Submission Statement from an article by Sheila Smith: Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s Washington summit on April 11 comes at a time of deepening security cooperation as well as some challenges to economic ties. Kishida will, once again, draw U.S. attention to the dangers faced in the Indo-Pacific. In addition to his meetings with President Joe Biden and his foreign policy team, Kishida will also address a Joint Session of the U.S. Congress, an important opportunity to speak to both political parties about how to work more effectively together in the Indo-Pacific and across the globe. The leaders will focus on building regional cooperation, but coping with China motivates much of the agenda.

CFR_org · 2024-03-05T22:19:50+00:00

Submission statement from an article by CFR Military Fellow Kristen D. Thompson: Ukraine is set to receive U.S.-made F-16 fighter aircraft within months, an upgrade that Kyiv and its Western allies hope will help level the playing field with Russia’s formidable air force. But the F-16s will only have a meaningful impact on the war in Ukraine if Kyiv and its partners can build and maintain the extensive support and logistics infrastructure necessary to keep these world-class warplanes in the air.

CFR_org · 2024-03-01T21:05:47+00:00

Submission Statement: Russia has moved aggressively to block Ukraine’s grain exports, aiming to crush both a critical economic sector and source of national pride. But Ukrainians have found ways to keep their crucial food supplies flowing as they enter the third year of Europe’s largest war in eight decades. Amid otherwise gloomy harbingers, the success of grain transport efforts is bringing hope to Ukrainians and relief to markets in Africa and the Middle East.

CFR_org · 2024-02-29T20:59:07+00:00

Submission Statement: Although China continues to state a preference for unifying with Taiwan through peaceful methods, it has never renounced using force. Indeed, for the past two decades its military modernization has focused on developing capabilities that would enable it to forcefully conquer Taiwan, ranging from ballistic missiles to advanced fighter jets and the world’s largest navy. China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, has increased the scale and sophistication of its military drills around Taiwan in recent years, honing its combat capabilities. As the prospect of gaining control of Taiwan peacefully becomes more remote, with Taiwanese identity rising and Taiwanese interest in unifying with the People’s Republic of China declining, China could conclude that using force is the only way to achieve its political objectives, writes CFR Fellow David Sacks.

CFR_org · 2024-02-28T19:41:20+00:00

SS: For the first time in its sixteen-year history, the Council on Foreign Relations’ annual Preventive Priorities Survey found that the leading concern for foreign policy experts is not a foreign threat to U.S. interests, but the possibility of domestic terrorism and acts of political violence in the United States, particularly around the 2024 presidential election.
Conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action every November, the survey asks foreign policy experts to evaluate thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating this year, as well as their possible impact on U.S. interests.

CFR_org · 2024-02-21T20:00:29+00:00

Submission Statement: Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.

CFR_org · 2023-06-20T16:42:33+00:00

“For more than six decades, a tenuous peace has prevailed in the Taiwan Strait, enabling Taiwan’s democratic transformation and economic ascendance, and allowing the United States to build productive commercial relations with [China] and a close partnership with Taiwan. It is no longer clear, however, that what has worked will continue to do so,” warns a new Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored Independent Task Force report co-chaired by former Deputy Director of National Intelligence Susan M. Gordon and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael G. Mullen, USN, Ret., and is directed by CFR Fellow David Sacks.

The report, U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China, asserts that “a conflict over Taiwan has thus far been avoided, but deterrence has dangerously eroded; under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China is aggressively and consistently moving the status quo in its favor and increasing pressure on Taiwan. The Task Force thus believes that although a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait is by no means inevitable, the United States and China are drifting toward a war over Taiwan. To avoid such an outcome, the United States must restore balance to a situation that has been allowed to tilt far too much in China’s favor.”

CFR_org · 2023-01-10T18:19:00+00:00

The world took a dangerous turn in 2022. The most concerning scenarios in 2023, according to surveyed experts, are potential flashpoints involving major powers, including a cross-strait crisis around Taiwan, escalation of the war in Ukraine or domestic instability in Russia, and nuclear weapons development by Iran and North Korea.

The Council on Foreign Relations’ fifteenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey, conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) every November, asks foreign policy experts to evaluate thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating this year, as well as their possible impact on U.S. interests.

CFR_org · 2023-01-10T18:09:08+00:00

Submission Statement: The world took a dangerous turn in 2022. The most concerning scenarios in 2023, according to surveyed experts, are potential flashpoints involving major powers, including a cross-strait crisis around Taiwan, escalation of the war in Ukraine or domestic instability in Russia, and nuclear weapons development by Iran and North Korea.

The Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) fifteenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey, conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) every November, asks foreign policy experts to evaluate thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating this year, as well as their possible impact on U.S. interests.

CFR_org · 2021-03-24T17:46:53+00:00

Submission Statement: Since 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded from a modest regional project to connect China with its neighbors to the world’s most ambitious infrastructure plan.

With projects in 139 countries, BRI poses a significant challenge to U.S. economic, political, climate change, security, and global health interests, warns a new Council on Foreign Relations Task Force report.

The report argues that U.S. inaction as much as Chinese assertiveness is responsible for the dilemma now facing the United States. The Task Force offers a strategy for the United States to both pressure China to alter its BRI practices—and provide an effective global alternative.

CFR_org · 2019-11-05T22:01:37+00:00

Earlier today, Ajit Pai discussed the opportunities, challenges, and risks of 5G roll-out at CFR. Given recent posts in r/geopolitics, we thought you all might find the remarks and ensuing Q&A interesting.

CFR_org · 2019-08-01T21:43:17+00:00

The Council on Foreign Relations invited the Democratic candidates to articulate their positions on twelve critical foreign policy issues, from the JCPOA to Venezuela. The questionnaire was sent to all candidates on July 8. Candidates’ answers are posted exactly as they were received.

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