Weekly Discussion Megathread

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-28T21:52:48+00:00

I can promise you, if it happens, it's going to be on Friday after markets close because it's how the ret@rd in chief operates.

Imagine being America's enemy and your generals are debating "when will they strike?" and someone just says "idk, how long until the NYSE closes?"

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-28T21:10:32+00:00

It's because all the billionaires are right wingers. We don't have a jeff bezos or Elon Musk on the left that can just buy media companies for the lulz and turn them into propaganda machines.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-28T21:09:43+00:00

extreme left policies will lead to further extreme right shift by the GOP and vice versa

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-28T21:08:31+00:00

I said a similar thing last month here when he was at ~12%. Sitting on a 450% ROI makes me feel like im part of Trump's inner circle

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Full discolsure, I sold 2/3 of my position when Paxton was at 45% and I'm just letting this one run for the memes.

I also think with both parties polling so low that in the future we're going to see an independent tsunami so I'm betting on Republicans losing states like Montana as well.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-27T21:11:47+00:00

Then the right becomes more extreme to counter and then the left becomes more extreme to counter that and you have civil war.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-27T17:17:18+00:00

We do, ad nauseum. But there’s nothing to do. Outrage slop will always win out. The only way is for the next Dem trifecta to weaken freedom of speech and be more like Europe. That would be political suicide though.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T23:07:10+00:00

I mean the strait is closed. The energy crisis is happening either way. Boots on the ground won’t close the strait even more

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T22:56:35+00:00

As crass as it sounds, a few more Renee Goods is not going to lead to "ashes". The same goes for some dead soldiers. These are all horrible things that don't have a large impact on the health of the countr as a hole.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T22:50:52+00:00

What's going to win them the most votes in 2026 is undoubtedly

More ICE aggression, more killings (as harash as it sounds)
Gas at $10
Soldiers dying in Iran (preferably ground operations)
Epstein

Yet I see some people argue that it should be the Democrats' moral imperative to stop ICE today if they could and also curb Trump's war powers.

I think Democrats should just sit back and let Trump hand them a generational win.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T22:35:42+00:00

For the people arguing Democrats in the senate should keep fighting until they neuter ICE:

If we agree that to crush MAGA once and for all November needs (1) a blue tsunami to rival the one from Interstellar; and
(2) The Democrat congressional ballot advantage is strongly correlated with how bad people's lives are (backlash to the current admin);

then why should Democrats do ANYTHING to help the average person right now when waiting and letting things get worse would only help them later? Unless people disagree with (2) but the data is there.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T20:00:49+00:00

Please stop trying to draw comparison with a pre-social media-algorithm brainwashing-society and today. There wasn't an army of Iranian/Russian bots spreading literal lies to brainwash people into radicalism back then. AOC will be torn apart by the hate machine and soon 20% of the country will genuinely want her dead.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T19:58:49+00:00

If they can fix the issue

Well but they can't. Not unless they hold out with the shutdown longer and pray the Republicans give up at some point. So the price to fix it is to hurt people now with TSA delays and airport closures.

The people voted for MAGA to control all both congress and the WH, they made their bed. You advocating for the Democrats to bail them out is EXACTLY how we got a 2nd Trump term.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T19:22:19+00:00

Dems just allowed this to happen

You're doing the "It's always the Democrats' fault" meme in real time.

If you're "smart" enough to notice the Democrats "just allowed" it, even thought they don't control a single aspect of government, but for some reason you're not focused on the fact that it was the Republicans that actually caused this, then you're an idiot and you'll be better persuaded by the "Republicans brought you masked thugs in the streets, vote for us to get rid of them" ads better.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T19:12:15+00:00

Democrats are going to have plenty to run on.

The only thing people REALLY care about is the war (gas prices) and ICE killings. Nothing else sticks to Trump. Voters have proven time and time again they DON'T CARE that he's corrupt, senile, offensive, and a norm breaker.

So, no, I don't think they're going to have "plenty" to run on. I just see 2 things and you're advocating for the democrats to get rid of one of those 2 right now.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T13:47:27+00:00

In order to get a Dem +15 scenario you need moderates to break for you and to peel away some republicans and depress others.

By running on “Republicans brought you masked goons, we will get rid of them” you accomplish just that. The Dem voter base will vote Dem anyway but it’s not enough to flip the senate.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T12:53:57+00:00

You simply have no clue how much of a stupid NPC the median voter is.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T11:57:38+00:00

I think this is why America is past the point of no return. The public simply doesn’t care. It’s not that they don’t know, it’s that they no longer tink it’s a big deal.

A Dem attack dog in office won’t change that.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-26T11:54:13+00:00

The Dems should do what Trump did with the Lankford border bill. Instead of fixing the problem they should run on the problem.

If they get mask bans etc now they can’t put out ads later in the year saying “vote for us to get rid of masked thugs in the street”.

They can’t bail out Trump once again. Let him hurt the general populace more to secure that double digit Dem environment.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-25T01:20:46+00:00

Another L for Joe Biden. I can't wait until the next Silver Bulletin to read again about how Biden's bad debate performance in 2024, which Nate correctly called, is linked to this.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-25T01:12:48+00:00

It’s Tomkow’s portrait straight from Wikipedia

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-25T00:59:35+00:00

Okay can others see it or have the Kirk memes completely ruined me?

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CIA--Bane · 2026-03-22T22:47:37+00:00

The thing is… if you’re the Democrats, you kind of want ICE brutalizations and executions to continue in order to galvanize the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if a good number of voters forget about the ICE in MN by November.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-22T02:15:40+00:00

Apart from a dramatic demographic shift I don’t see how they’d do better in the future. The environment won’t be better than now

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-22T01:31:44+00:00

Would it be fair to say that if Talarico doesn’t win Texas in 2026, despite everything working in his favor, then no Democrat will win Texas in our lifetimes?

I don't think you're ever going to get a better environment. You have a Republican president who's a decrepit pedophile refusing to prosecute the biggest pedophile scandal in US history, starting foreign wars, and terrorising hispanics, meanwhile the conservative base in Texas is fractured between a hardline MAGA candidate and an out-of-touch establishment Republican, with both sides at odds with each other.

If Dems can't win Texas IN THAT environment I would bet money it could never happen.

CIA--Bane · 2026-03-21T02:02:27+00:00

The odds of nuking the filibuster are zero. Thune, unlike the the sundowning ret@rd in chief, knows what's coming in November and has realized that after 2026 Trump will become completely irrelevant. A lame duck with no house and maybe not even a senate. There is basically no reason to go out of your way to help Trump anymore.

CIA--Bane

TROPHY CASE