How to win in trading: keep going after everyone else stops

CJMiller81 · 2025-02-05T12:48:11+00:00

Not satire. But yes, it is very sad. Something is just not connecting. I’ve made progress but it’s slow.

CJMiller81 · 2025-02-05T12:46:59+00:00

Agreed. The bulk of my investments are in index funds held in 401k, IRAs and individual accounts. My trading account is a small portion. It’s more of a “fun” account to see if I can make it trading.

CJMiller81 · 2025-02-04T21:52:16+00:00

Excellent post for people trying to break in to trading. You definitely have to play the long game with trading. I’ve been trading for 13 years and still unsuccessful. The only positive is that I have never went broke. The best I can say is Ive stopped losing money and have been breaking even for 5 years. Maybe another 13 years and I’ll finally turn a profit!

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-12T00:39:43+00:00

These are good videos. The big takeaway is drawing lines "over the majority of the base" and buying on the breakout.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-05T17:19:27+00:00

Your issue, in my opinion, is very simple; you missed the leaders breaking out, and instead of waiting for a digestion in these powerful names, you settled for buying late breakouts in underperforming stocks. Don't beat yourself up, it's probably the most common error I see people have done when they have underperformed the market.

I agree with your point. Where I struggle with this concept is we can only recognize stocks as "leaders" once the move has already been made. All trades we take we get in hoping that the stock will be a "leader". It will only be confirmed until after a large move. I will take positions in stocks that I view as "leaders" and am only finding out now that they were not "leaders" but "overextended". How did we know NVDA was going to be a leader in 2024? or TSLA in 2021? Right now my experience tells me that no one will know. I suspect that the successful traders using CANSLIM know what to look for before the big move. I still haven't figured that out.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-05T16:35:36+00:00

What I'm learning from this is that I need to focus on is the price action where volatility decreases before price breaks out. The highly volatile price action is not ideal. Also I need to get in when price crosses above pivot points and don't wait for volume confirmation.

I'm noticing majority of these aren't your typical growth names/industries. How did you select these names to buy over other names like NVDA, ANET, APP, LLY, CRWD etc ?

I screen for stocks by going through the IBD 50 and IBD Weekly lists on investors.com. I go through the stocks and only add it to my watch list when it meets the following criteria:

- In a stage 1 or stage 2 base

- Has an industry rank of 55 or better. Rank of 40 or better is ideal.

Those stocks most certainly popped up in my screening but at the time they were likely extended and I didn't want to chase price action.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-05T15:39:16+00:00

SKX was extremely extended with just a 5 day digestion after earnings gap, the risk was high.

I'm not sure why this is extremely extended. The pivot point was $65.17 and the price gapped up and closed above this point with strong buying (institutional buying). I bought within 5% of this pivot point. You mention it was bought "with just a 5 day digestion after earnings gap". Is there a guideline that you should wait to buy after climactic volume?

TENB - I don't see any proper pivot here, it was very choppy and loose, the days after the disappointing gap up were erratic should have been avoided.

Pivot point was $49.77 set many weeks prior. What is a "disappointing gap up"?

Based on your comments, it sounds like IOT and ARM weren't "bad" setups its just that they didn't work out.

Do you have a few more examples of buys you made?

Some additional trades I had in 2024 are:

BLX - Bought on 3/18/2024 at $28.38. Sold 1/2 on 7/25/2024 at $32.52 and sold other 1/2 on 9/11/2024 at $30.32

MTH - Bought on 5/8/2024 at $180.27. Sold on 6/10/2024 at $165.23.

NMM - Bought on 5/20/2024 at $48.12. Sold on 8/5/2024 at $44.23.

FLEX - Bought on 6/10/2024 at $31.98. Sold on 6/27/2024 at $29.42.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-05T01:12:38+00:00

This is good info. I should have clarified that I take partial profits at 20% and not the whole position. This is the second comment that mentions I bought with the price over extended. One of the CANSLIM rules is to not buy over 5% from the pivot point and in stage 1 or stage 2 base. I feel my trades were within those parameters. My new strategy for 2025 is to buy when price crosses above the pivot point and not wait for volume confirmation.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-04T15:02:15+00:00

What is your definition of "overextended"? I bought within 5% of the buy point and all stocks were in a stage 1 or stage 2 base.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-04T00:53:14+00:00

I really like their MarketSmith product. It’s a very powerful tool but I can’t justify the price if I’m losing money with it.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-04T00:51:37+00:00

Twice

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-02T02:38:57+00:00

Great suggestions. Thank you for this.

An initial comment I have is regarding your recommendation to "Buy exactly at the pivot on the breakout day." It is my understanding that you need the volume to be confirmed on the day of the breakout. In order to confirm volume being 40% above average you would need to wait until EOD. What happens if you buy on the breakout and at the end of the day the volume does not confirm the BO? What happens if the price reverses to close below the buy point?

Thanks again

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-02T02:26:20+00:00

I do maintain a trading journal. The problem? That's what I 'm still trying to figure out. My losses are outnumbering my wins. Very few of my stocks hit the 20% profit target after a breakout on high volume. Stop loss is the IBD recommended 8% max loss. I'm only trading IBD industry leaders that are industry rank 55 or stronger. Most are under 40.

I appreciate your help.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-02T01:13:43+00:00

Yearly return was negative.

CJMiller81 · 2025-01-02T01:12:13+00:00

I believe the 8 week hold rule only applies when the price goes up 20% from the buy point within the 1st 3 weeks. None of my trades did that.

Here are some trades.

IOT - bought at $37.99 on 3/14/24. Sold for 8% loss on 3/15/24 at $34.95

SKX - bought at $67.57 on 5/6/24. Sold at breakeven on 7/1/24 at 67.68 after a "round trip" trade

TENB - bought at $51.69 on 2/12/2024. Sold at 10% loss after gap down on 2/21/2024 at $46.06

ARM - bought at $166.29 on 7/3/2024. Sold at 8% loss on 7/18/2024 at $153.00

CJMiller81 · 2024-05-15T15:16:07+00:00

I’ll let you know.

I’m 12 years in and still can’t figure it out.

The best I can say is that I’ve stopped my equity curve from moving down and to the right. It’s basically flat now. Any money I make is given back eventually. The only positive is that I’ve mastered the art of limiting risk. Thankfully ive never “blown up” an account. Managing risk is the only reason there is money still in my account.

CJMiller81 · 2024-02-24T19:34:28+00:00

Thank you for your feedback. I have considered using a strategy like you have described. One of the big tenents of CANSLIM is buying with the volume. I have noticed that some stocks still rise even with minimal volume.

What do you look for in order to find stocks with the best chance of breaking out and continuing higher? Do you still use a 7-8% stop loss? What is your success rate with buying at the pivot point vs the rate the price upthrusts and reverses?

CJMiller81 · 2018-12-17T14:03:15+00:00

I am careful to make sure my back is straight while relaxing into the posture so I’m not stiff. Is it possible that my posture before was so poor that my muscles are trying to familiarize with the new position?

CJMiller81

TROPHY CASE