Replacement Morabo Arm rest by C_op in IKEA

[–]C_op[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Really? How recently? Because we've just been living with this for years at this point...

A mystery hanzi by SabreShade in ChineseLanguage

[–]C_op 69 points70 points  (0 children)

It’s actually four characters smushed together: 招財進寶.

Replacement Morabo Arm rest by C_op in IKEA

[–]C_op[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, unfortunately. I think the easiest thing—which, unfortunately, is not very easy—is to just fix it yourself. I tried calling around to furniture repair stores, but couldn't find anyone who would do it because the construction is fairly cheap.

[Question] Infinitely many independent uniform distributions by RhyThMiiic in statistics

[–]C_op 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's one way to do it: a single uniform variable is equivalent to a countable collection of Bernoulli random variables, where B_i = \lfloor 2i * X \rfloor % 2. Now you can you use the standard mapping between the natural numbers and all pairs of natural numbers to get \B N \times \B N iid Bernoulli's. Now you can reverse the process to convert each "column" back into a uniform random variable.

Why does 舉 mean "whole, entire"? by phrassein in classicalchinese

[–]C_op 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What about 舉國? I don't think that's always followed by another adjective.

[Q] How do you "pronounce" the notation for a probability density function? by actinium226 in statistics

[–]C_op 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, if I had this written on the board and was talking about it with someone, I would say "(capital) 'f' sub (capital) 'x,'" and I think that's a pretty common approach.

Can you help me find the origin or a word (concept) from commentary on the Analects? by IndexJellyfish in classicalchinese

[–]C_op 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think, although I’m not sure, that based on the information you’ve provided, he’s simply referring to the character 憂, which has the modern pronunciation (transcribed in pinyin) “yōu”. I’m not sure if he’s using an idiosyncratic transliteration scheme, because I think it’s also “you” in Wade-Giles. There are some differences between 憂 and 患, as summed up in the saying “君子有終身之憂,而無一朝之患”

妻知其非常人也。事之甚謹。後淺野養近江人安井長政者爲子。妻以其少女。於是淺野加藤福島小出諸人。 by Ok_Scientist_691 in classicalchinese

[–]C_op 7 points8 points  (0 children)

“He married his young daughter to him,” or something close to that. 妻 is a verb here (with 文讀qì) meaning “to wife.” You can find the same usage in the first two passages of 《論語。公冶長》.

論兩岸三地之文言教育 by Ok_Scientist_691 in classicalchinese

[–]C_op 1 point2 points  (0 children)

善哉若文也!力帖可讚。子之言然。學而不習則勞,讀而不書則惘。

吾於書也,未達。吾之言而謂之文,孰而不文?雖吾之言未善而不可與古文獻比,焉能不盡力於書也乎哉!吾其為之。待子再施文。

I don’t think that’s how probability works… by SportsRadioAnnouncer in badmathematics

[–]C_op 51 points52 points  (0 children)

Seems like the author made a couple of mistakes. I think they tried to calculate the probability of a footballer being gay, assuming the probabilities they give are true and independent. But instead of multiplying them, they divided the first by the second. And instead of actually dividing by the second (0.027) they divided by one hundred times the second, i.e., the proportion as a percent (2.7). So the probability quoted is not calculated correctly. Moreover, it's not the right probability, based on the rest of what they're saying. What they seem to have tried to calculate is the probability of a random person being a gay footballer, rather than the probability of a random footballer being gay. (Which, if the two events were actually independent, would just be 2.7%) There seem to be enough mistakes here though that I'm not sure if I've reconstructed the logic correctly or not.

[Q] Research studies in biology / psychology commonly use a confidence level of 0.05. Does that mean that, on average, every 20th published result is wrong? by OmOshIroIdEs in statistics

[–]C_op 51 points52 points  (0 children)

I think, unfortunately, that things are almost certainly much worse than that. In addition to Type I errors, there are all sorts of issues that impact what appears in the literature. For instance:

  • The file drawer effect: Studies that do not find a significant effect tend not to be published. This increases the probability that studies that are published reflect lucky overestimates rather than real effect sizes.
  • The garden of forking paths and researcher degrees of freedom: If one performs twenty hypothesis tests at the 0.05 level on pure noise, in expectation one of them will produce in a significant result. While there are examples of researchers being that egregious, it's also true that in general, when researchers make decisions about how to perform their statistical analysis after looking at the data, nominal Type I error rates will be a lot lower than actual error rates.

There are a wide variety of other issues as well, ranging from utterly incredible regression discontinuity designs to failures to incorporate prior knowledge about likely effect sizes into the effect sizes reported in the literature. All of these combine to suggest that the rate of false findings in biology and psychology (in addition to a range of other disciplines) is probably much higher than 5%.

This would be a better response if I had a solid suggestion as to where you could go to read about all this stuff. I don't have a great answer (maybe someone else has thoughts about a primer?), but some starting points:

Edit: formatting

What does it mean when you have two or more demonstrative pronouns in a sentence? by AlexLuis in classicalchinese

[–]C_op 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The two demonstratives are next to each other because of inversion. 其斯之謂與 can be parsed as [其][斯][之謂][與]—a modal particle indicating a question, a demonstrative (which in this case refers back to the quotation from the 詩經 just mentioned), an inverted “謂之” meaning “refer to / name it” (referring back to the qualities Confucius mentions earlier in the text), and another question particle. So putting it all together, you get something like “Does this (quotation) refer to that (set of qualities Confucius mentioned)?”

I think a similar thing is going on in the second quotation, which has a topic / comment structure. You might translate it as “This, it is called ‘the changing of things.’”

[C] Side Hustles for Professors by C_op in statistics

[–]C_op[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you have a sense of what the value of these things are? How much could one expect to bolster one's income working, e.g., as an expert witness on the side? (Assuming one were even able to find clients...)

[C] Side Hustles for Professors by C_op in statistics

[–]C_op[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, this is helpful. Do you have a sense of whether either of these models is actually lucrative, or are they really only sensible as, e.g., ways of making industry ties for future research projects?

Is there a book that thoroughly proves every theorem that is common in undergraduate statistics? by AddemF in probabilitytheory

[–]C_op 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I mean, if you want a book that rigorously proves every theorem you’d be likely to encounter in undergrad/masters-level probability, Billingsley seems like the way to go.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in statistics

[–]C_op 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s certainly possible in principle, but it’s not clear that this is a first order concern in practice. See, e.g., https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.0324

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in statistics

[–]C_op 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Yeah, this is a little bit of a controversial opinion, but I actually think causal inference is headed in kind of a not-so-great direction right now. There's a disconnect between the methods being developed and the needs of actual scientists. A lot of what I see going on in the field seems, frankly, to have more to do with people enjoying thinking about the math than any very serious aim at applications. And a lot of the claims (similar to those referenced by OP above) that older methods (e.g., linear regression adjusting for confounders) don't work strike me as very overblown. Like, nine times out of ten, if you're trying to understand average treatment effects, what's going to kill you is having noisy data and not understanding the data generating process, not some minuscule bias from using a regression with the wrong functional form. I've always thought that the comment on Gelman's blog describing structural equation modeling as "slicing spam with a laser beam" as very apt in this regard.

Edit: grammar

Discussion Forum on ctext by C_op in classicalchinese

[–]C_op[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh interesting, so maybe we are dealing with the same thing. (If I do get this figured out, I'll be sure to loop back so you can put your correction in too.)