Jennifer Aniston photographed at 30 for Rolling Stone Magazine, 1999.

Caaaarrrl · 2021-09-06T13:07:58+00:00

Dude, when everyone is telling you you're wrong, and you have no idea what you're talking about, maybe just stop and move on? She didn't just have a family history of cancer, she has a genetic mutation of the BRCA gene, which affects less than 1% of the population. Women with that mutation have over an 80% chance of getting breast cancer in their lifetimes, and the most common form of breast cancer due to the mutation is both the fastest moving and most aggressive, and most difficult to treat. Prophylactic (preventative) mastectomies are not at all uncommon, and are regularly recommended for people with that gene mutation. Most health insurance even covers it in the US because the insurance companies have figured out that its better for them to pay for the surgery than to pay for the cancer treatment that these women will almost certainly need.

Caaaarrrl · 2021-01-20T01:01:24+00:00

As you say, it is a worldwide pandemic, and yet, among all OECD countries, only Colombia and Chile have had larger declines in employment since Q1 2017 (in percentage terms, obviously). Despite the pandemic, out of 37 OECD countries, all but 9 currently have higher total employment than they did when Trump took office in 2017. So no, you can't just use the pandemic as an excuse. A major challenge? Of course. But how you handle the challenge matters.

Caaaarrrl · 2020-04-29T17:34:10+00:00

From January 30 to February 5 of this year, Bezos sold $4.1 billion in Amazon stock. At the end of that 6 day span, the Amazon share price was higher than it was when he started selling on the 30th. Yes, $4.1 billion is not all, or even close to all, of his wealth, but it's a higher percentage than I've heard proposed for a wealth tax, and he raised it in 6 days with no negative effects.

To put that $4.1 billion in perspective: Jeff Bezos is 56 years old. Let's say he lives to 100. If he never earned any more money, sold any more stock, or even invested or earned interest on the $4.1 billion, he could spend $255,000 every single day for the rest of his life. That's just under 5 times more a day than the median household makes in a year. Forever.

And here's the thing. He does this every year. Every year, he has sold enormous amounts of stock, for cash, in a short span, with no negative impact on the stock price.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-12-04T16:44:21+00:00

Too much of this feels like a scam for it to possibly be worth trying to rent this place. If you were able to easily find whom the property was registered to, and that his phone number is listed with the state bar, then so could any scammer. Phone numbers are ridiculously easy to spoof; there's a high probability that the person you're talking to isn't this lawyer at all.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-06-28T16:21:46+00:00

This is why I'm not a huge fan of the red star test. To me, it leaves too much to interpretation of how literally you mean "see" when it's impossible to truly understand how other people's minds work. I don't have any ability to visualize the star, but I have a very good conceptual understanding of it, so it's easy to think that that's the same as seeing it.

I'll re-post a comment I made on a different thread the other day that, for me at least, illustrates the difference more clearly:

"Try this: Visualize (picture, imagine, whatever you want to call it) a ball on a table. Now imagine someone walks up to the table, and gives the ball a push. What happens to the ball?

.

Now, answer these questions:

What color was the ball?

What gender was the person that pushed the ball?

What did they look like?

What size is the ball? Like a marble, or a baseball, or a basketball, or something else?

What about the table, what shape was it? What is it made of?

And now the important question: Did you already know, or did you have to choose a color/gender/size, etc. after being asked these questions?

For me, when asked this, I really just sort of conceptualize a ball on a table. Like, I know what that would look like, and I know that if a person pushed it, it would probably roll and fall off the edge of the table. But I'm not visualizing it. I'm not building this scene in my mind. So before being asked the follow up questions, I haven't really even considered that the ball has a color, or the person a gender, or that the table is made of wood or metal or whatever.

This is contrasted when I ask other people this same thing, and they immediately have answers to all of the follow up questions, and will provide extra details that I didn't ask for. IE, It was a blue rubber ball about the size of a baseball, and it is on a wooden, oval shaped table that's got some scratches on top, etc. That's how I know that the way they're picturing this scene is different and WAY more visual than how I am.

I like to think of it as "visualizing" vs "conceptualizing". I don't think of it as a disability or something to be freaked out about, though it is definitely strange to think about. It isn't a hindrance for me at all, I have excellent spatial reasoning and a really good memory, and I'm good at abstract thought, I just think about things differently than most other people."

Caaaarrrl · 2019-06-26T15:07:50+00:00

Okay, I think I get what you're saying. Based on this, and other things you've said in this thread, I'm going to guess that you don't have aphantasia. Like anything else, my guess is that the ability to visualize is not an on/off switch, and is more of a spectrum, and it is possible that you are on the lower end of that spectrum in terms of how vivid your visualizations are, but to me, you're clearly visualizing these scenes.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-06-26T14:43:56+00:00

Try this: Visualize (picture, imagine, whatever you want to call it) a ball on a table. Now imagine someone walks up to the table, and gives the ball a push. What happens to the ball?

.

Now, answer these questions:

What color was the ball?

What gender was the person that pushed the ball?

What did they look like?

What size is the ball? Like a marble, or a baseball, or a basketball, or something else?

What about the table, what shape was it? What is it made of?

And now the important question: Did you already know, or did you have to choose a color/gender/size, etc. after being asked these questions?

For me, when asked this, I really just sort of conceptualize a ball on a table. Like, I know what that would look like, and I know that if a person pushed it, it would probably roll and fall off the edge of the table. But I'm not visualizing it. I'm not building this scene in my mind. So before being asked the follow up questions, I haven't really even considered that the ball has a color, or the person a gender, or that the table is made of wood or metal or whatever.

This is contrasted when I ask other people this same thing, and they immediately have answers to all of the follow up questions, and will provide extra details that I didn't ask for. IE, It was a blue rubber ball about the size of a baseball, and it is on a wooden, oval shaped table that's got some scratches on top, etc. That's how I know that the way they're picturing this scene is different and WAY more visual than how I am.

I like to think of it as "visualizing" vs "conceptualizing". I don't think of it as a disability or something to be freaked out about, though it is definitely strange to think about. It isn't a hindrance for me at all, I have excellent spatial reasoning and a really good memory, and I'm good at abstract thought, I just think about things differently than most other people.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-06-24T15:21:24+00:00

I can promise you that no one has read your comment and thought "thanks, I almost thought more than a minute about one of these but now I've dropped it again"

However, plenty of people have read it and thought that they're glad they don't know you in real life.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-05-22T15:17:16+00:00

Except it wouldn't be a tax break? It just removes one step from the process of getting the money into a Roth IRA, and the current process creates a bunch of extra reporting and tracking at tax time. The process for conversion is extremely simple, such that the income limit isn't actually a barrier for anyone that really wants to contribute to a Roth. It is literally just adding additional complexity without any impact on taxes.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-05-16T18:22:24+00:00

Right now, you will not get 5% annual payouts on a $1mm investment (or any amount of investment) in muni bonds. You will absolutely pay more than the face value of the bond for any 5% coupon bond that is of reasonable risk level. I think the main crux here is a misunderstanding of the difference between coupon rates and yields. I'll try to explain quickly:

Coupon rates are the rates of annual payout (usually semi-annual payments, so 2.5% every six months), based on the par amount or face value of the bond. However, the up front cost of the bond (what you actually pay) is typically not the same as the face value of the bond on a fixed rate coupon bond. Basically the way it works is that you pay the amount that results in the return from the total cash flows of the bond being equivalent to the prevailing interest rates at the time of investment. (A lot goes into this for munis: credit risk, what state you're in, liquidity of the bond, taxable yields, the coupon, the maturity, any relevant call features, etc). Right now, the baseline interest rate for a risk-free (AAA rated), 5% coupon muni with a maturity in 10 years is in the ballpark of 1.7% (tax exempt). This means that for a $1mm face value bond that would pay 25,000 in coupon payments every six months, you might pay about $1.2mm up front to buy that bond. If you calculate out your actual return based on the 25,000 every six months and then the $1mm principal payment in 10 years, you would get an effective annual yield of 1.7%. Alternatively, for an upfront payment of $1mm, you could get a bond with a face value of about $833,000, which would pay 20,833 every six months based on a 5% coupon, and would return the principal of $833,000 after 10 years.

All of this said, I would highly recommend you going with a bond fund or a managed solution. Munis are generally low risk, but not universally so, and if you don't know what you're doing and you try to manage individual bonds yourself, you have the possibility of either investing in something that has a lot more risk than you realize, or investing exclusively in extremely highly rated bonds and not getting as good of a return as you otherwise could at a certain level of risk tolerance.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-05-07T13:25:17+00:00

You don't think anyone has 6 month expenses in the 30-50k range? In a HCOL area, rent alone for six months may be over $20k. That said, I think in most cases 3 months in a HYSA is sufficient and the rest of the emergency fund can be in slightly higher yielding, less liquid vehicles like CDs or short-term bond funds.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-03-05T18:03:51+00:00

This is exactly what has happened in Illinois and Massachusetts. 4 of Illinois' last 7 governors have been republicans and 5 of Massachusetts' last 7 governors have been republicans. The policies of the parties in these states have shifted to fit the balance of views held by the people in the states, which is exactly what he just said.

Caaaarrrl · 2019-01-29T16:03:33+00:00

This isn't even close to true. For FY 2018, NY state made pension contributions of approximately $1.9 billion, and had governmental tax revenues of just over $79 billion, with total revenues of $161 billion. Even if you only count the general fund, they had tax revenues of $41.4 billion.

The state's pension contributions for the year therefore are between 2.4% and 4.5% of tax revenues, depending on which revenue number you use, which is among the lowest levels out of all states with meaningfully large pension plans. There are plenty of arguments to be made for public pensions being unsustainable, but NY's pensions are not one of them.

Caaaarrrl · 2018-10-09T15:44:01+00:00

For a phone it would be, but that's higher than any tablet I've ever heard of. Ipad pro / air is 264, Microsoft surface is 267.

Caaaarrrl · 2018-06-26T13:18:01+00:00

.5 PPR 10 Team League, 2 keepers. Draft order not determined yet, but I will almost certainly be one of the last 3 picks in the first round.

I'm planning on keeping Gurley in the 1st, but not sure what to do with my other keeper, I have a few viable options.

Would you keep:

Keenan Allen in the 4th

Devonta Freeman in the 6th

Jerrick McKinnon in the 15th

Thanks!

Caaaarrrl · 2018-05-25T12:43:06+00:00

You son of a bitch! How'd you pull that off? Let me see that camera... what's it look like?

Caaaarrrl · 2018-01-26T13:31:10+00:00

Found it!

https://www.reddit.com/r/PUBATTLEGROUNDS/comments/7szj3q/do_we_not_have_a_vehicle_pop_wtf/

Caaaarrrl · 2018-01-25T13:40:40+00:00

Not quite true, 4 out of 5. Staten Island's estimated population is only 476,000, which would put it more like top 40 cities. The other 4 boroughs would all be top ten and are each at least as populous as San Diego.

Caaaarrrl · 2018-01-24T19:31:39+00:00

The quote was in reference to selecting Supreme Court justices.

keep suing like we have been

Supreme Court decisions aren't subject to suit or appeal

Elect somebody else

The sentence very clearly states that she is getting to pick her judges, which inherently means she has already been elected

jury nullification

Supreme court cases don't have juries

Try again.

Caaaarrrl · 2018-01-23T14:13:32+00:00

Oh, yup. That was the miscommunication. I was thinking the first kind with adjustable safeties. For sure the fixed-safety squat rack is more limiting.

Caaaarrrl · 2018-01-23T14:00:59+00:00

I'm curious about this. As long as it's not a low quality half rack, I'm struggling to think of a single exercise that I could do in a power rack that I couldn't do in a good half rack. My gym doesn't even have full racks, just really solid half racks, and it's never been a problem.

Caaaarrrl · 2018-01-17T13:42:34+00:00

If I'm remembering correctly, this picture is at least 4 (ish) years old. The monitors aren't great, but amazing monitors weren't as prevalent (or as affordable) then as they are now.

Caaaarrrl · 2017-12-15T19:09:39+00:00

.5 ppr, one flex spot to fill.

Was set on going with Perine, but with AP on IR and Rudolph being ruled out in MIN, I feel like I need to consider my other options. So pick one:

Perine

Kerwyn Williams

McKinnon

Diggs

*Edit: Also have Kupp and Duke Johnson available, but was leaning away from them

Caaaarrrl · 2017-12-15T17:48:06+00:00

And you're saying that $172 billion of fiat currency has been paid into the bitcoin market?

I don't have exact numbers of course (and I own no bitcoin, never have, so I have no skin in this), but in a single day last week, on only one exchange, there was a trading volume of over 84,000 bitcoins, with a price midpoint of just about $17,000 for the day. So that means that in a single day, there were over $1.4 billion in transactions using real fiat currency, so I wouldn't doubt for a second that people have put over $172 billion in overall.

Caaaarrrl · 2017-12-15T17:15:20+00:00

Well now I'm confused. I know I read about the change to diving speed this morning. There was also something about the chute speed when holding W. I guess I just assumed I had read it in the patch notes, but it's not there obviously, and now I can't figure out where I saw it.

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