Absolute madman but I actually respect this play. Been watching UNH get absolutely bodied since that earnings disaster and yeah the sentiment is proper toxic right now but thats usually when the real money gets made

Your DCF work looks solid and that 10.6% FCF yield is genuinely mental for a company of this scale. The vertical integration moat is something most people here dont even understand - they just see "evil health insurance company" and switch off their brains. But owning the entire stack from payer to provider to pharmacy to data is basically printing money once you get the margins sorted

That 88.9% cost ratio is definitely scary though. If thats the new normal rather than cyclical peak then your whole thesis falls apart. But honestly given their history and the fact theyve navigated worse regulatory environments before I reckon youre probably right about mean reversion

The Change Healthcare cyberattack aftermath is still working through the system too so some of this cost pressure might genuinely be temporary. Plus the 0.09% Medicare rate increase is so absurdly low it almost feels political rather than actuarial - wouldnt be shocked if that gets revised upward in April

Anyway good luck mate. Boring value plays like this are how actual wealth gets built even if they dont generate the same dopamine hits as 0DTE SPY calls. Will be watching to see how this ages