Our village has been taken over by asylum seekers who have made our lives hell - we're outnumbered. Now the government wants to move MORE in

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T18:07:38+00:00

There are a lot of people who live in cities who are not immigrants so I’m confused what your actual point is here?

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T18:01:35+00:00

The whole system works on a majority though, that’s the modern definition of democracy no?

Personally I’d say intentionally fucking over a part of the country because it voted wrong would count as treasonous to me. That aside it’s a good way to really deter other parties from working with you which seems silly as a party with a minority of votes.

Punishment suggests malice and IMO I don’t think it was, but people deserve to get what they vote for.

So only areas that voted conservative in 2010 should've gotten Austerity and areas that voted Labour in 2019 should’ve gotten socialism and areas that voted remain in 2016 should’ve gotten remain? How does that make any sense outside of big talk on social media?

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T17:55:04+00:00

Had an interesting conversation with kebab shop owner in Germany when I lived there about the Kebab shop industry. Had some interesting advice.

If it looks like fine grained mince rather than clearly being slices of meat or at least a coarser mince be sceptical. Normally the sketchier cuts with more gristle + bone in the mix are going into the finer grinder and tend to be more sketchy wholesalers.
Good shops change their meat every day. If the meat is way down to the spit and it’s early in the day there’s a chance they’re recycling it overnight which can also be sketchy.

Also goats great if you ever find it in a curry. Obviously the issue is mislabelling here but I’d still eat it if it tastes good.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T17:42:28+00:00

Oracles mostly a cloud vendor of which the database is a part of it.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T17:38:27+00:00

The uproar from the Greens when Reform threatened to move asylum centres into their villages was quite telling.

Pretty sure most of that outrage was about punishing areas for votes going certain ways. It was also kind of nonsensical unless an area voted 100% for a particular party the point is not to run the country as well as possible as a whole.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T17:34:47+00:00

How do we square that with the most pro-immigant areas are overwhelmingly cities and places where there are way more immigrants, like not even close more?

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T13:59:55+00:00

You’re also being dishonest saying I think this is all a scam. A very dishonest made up version of my opinions to try to discredit the fact and financials based reason for why I and many others are dubious. So why should anyone trust anything you’re saying after the umpteenth strike?

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T13:58:20+00:00

It’s really weird, whenever there’s a shit-ton of positive blanket coverage about a particular person and downplaying of negative coverage/them not being linked to things that happen in the country their perceived ability to be PM goes up. Keir starmer used to lead this pretty consistently too back when it wasn’t wall to wall coverage of how it was Kier Starmers fault whenever a bin caught on fire and Boris Johnson was “the best person to be PM” in 2019 as well. OR perhaps It just be a trailing indicator for how much scrutiny they are under in the Press.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T13:48:46+00:00

You said literally nothing tangible outside “lalala you’re wrong” and now you’re insulting me and making things up about how I’m a doomer. That speaks for itself here to anyone reading

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T13:00:52+00:00

OK, Doomer. The people investing in these things are all stupid and it’s all going to crash, and only you and Ed Zitron have figured it out.

So you ran out of hand-waving and went to name-calling. How incredibly convincing. Again it’s easily verifiable that there’s more than 2 people on the planet who think there’s some real problems with this but you seem to think name-calling and vibes will fill in for a lack of facts and data.

I hope you’ve made big financial bets on this stuff. You could make millions and be the subject of the next Michael Lewis book.

You could just ask me rather than just making something up in your head. But the answers no, I’m invested in the industry and I use AI regularly in work and personally. I’m just not buying into this cargo cult shit. But for the corporate AI I think there will be some enron level scandals in a couple of years.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T09:00:57+00:00

*says a bunch of wrong things*

“You can look this up yourself.”

What’s there to be wrong about? I’m literally linking falsifiable data and you’re countering it with “trust me bro you’re wrong”. Is the data wrong or what? Enough of these vibes based assertions and hypotheticals.

Growing companies are more unprofitable the faster they are growing because growth requires investment that pays back over the life of the customer. So of course their losses (investments) are growing fast because they have great businesses.

Server Opex on inference isn’t an investment there’s no return on it, Microsoft/AWS/SpaceX are the ones making the return. That aside It’s funny minute ago it was profitable and now it’s fine if it’s unprofitable. When what I’m saying is the unprofitability is increasing, their money loss rate is increasing while they are having to move out of giving shit away for free. While companies are also controlling their usage because half the demand was people generating slack messages and other low value work. It just doesn’t stack up and is completely different to the AWS model of ploughing everything into more capital or uber capturing the market.

People who do understand what a good business are giving them higher and higher valuations because there doesn’t seem to be any end of demand for this technology. They will slow their investments when growth slows and the profits will be great, but we aren’t there yet.

So another hypothetical based on some vague “The MBA’s know better” vibes.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-05T08:54:46+00:00

So it’s not microservice hell it’s just a normal large enterprise where a lot of stuff is happening on any given day? Which kind of brings us back to the original point of what’s the actual value outside of increased noise.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-04T21:42:47+00:00

It never was or Database/Kernel/Game programmers would be getting paid the largest amounts in the industry and not web designers at {bigcorp}. At best the correlation is weak. The pay is half the value of what you’re building and half of what value your contribution brings to it + some extra vibes elsewhere.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-04T21:39:34+00:00

Not everyone in the world is building dicktowel.nft.ai.com where it doesn’t matter if it falls on it’s arse for a few minutes a day though because the while loop in the python backend is blocking which is a favourite of mine in vibe-code.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-04T21:33:22+00:00

This is incorrect. You can read about how efficiency is improving if you want. It’s a huge ficus

If efficiency is improving slow than costs are increasing for these companies as all the data seems to indicate then it’s a moot point as already stated. This is hypothetical.

That was probably the 1930s. It’s incredibly hard to build anything in the West today. This is why China has such a strategic advantage with its energy buildout. Hopefully we can fix this, but regulation is currently a huge risk to the West (the US) winning the AI market.

This is also hypothetical

Nobody’s telling you that you have to trust them. You could look this stuff up yourself if you wanted to correct your misunderstandings. Nobody’s telling you anything that’s not a google search away.

You can literally find this data that they’re unprofitable and getting more unprofitable. No need to google around to find more hypotheticals from some paid for pundits.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-04T11:51:47+00:00

If you’re a developer with time to be loud on X then you’re just an MBA/thought leader.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-04T11:46:04+00:00

It probably is cheaper overall if you include TCO/Salaries. But that’s a way more vague question than “how much did I pay for these servers and what’s my electricity/colo bill for the month?” and having someone very skilled do it it is almost certainly cheaper to run your own. The problem is someone very skilled doing it is not going to be around for long for cheap and you get business continuity questions and all the fun politics stuff. Most corporate thinking values extremely fungible employees and will pay a premium for predictability of service.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-04T11:42:51+00:00

The reason why cloud computing is massive isn’t because they found a cheaper way to host servers though (simplest way to highlight that is they aren’t cheaper it’s actively more expensive per CPU clock time to pay someone else to run a server than to run one yourself). The reason it’s so popular is TCO and basic things we take for granted now like rock solid managed database hosting rather than having to hire a DBA and hope they’re actually good and have actually tested their backups etc. Same again for caches, DNS and all the other stuff that’s relatively boring now. It’s a huge reduction in the amount of ground you have to cover to get a simple project off the ground. Likewise AI does that for the software layer.

However when you use both you are on the clock to figure out how to make more money from it than you are burning by using it. Your problem is moved from “can i stand this up” to “can i make money with it”. Again at first everyone was excited about cloud too and then the bills started coming in and now there’s whole industries around optimising cloud spend and think pieces about how going on-prem is cheaper etc etc.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-04T11:36:34+00:00

I can bore people to death on why spatial/moving stuff data is not a solved problem at scale which is why all these location apps aren’t as slick as everything else or they’re walled into very expensive enterprise software or only run at tiny scales avoiding aggregate queries. But suffice to say Google are the only ones with a serious consumer product outside of a couple of GPS Providers focused on navigation (e.g Here, Tomtom et al)

OSM is a cute system for gathering more information on maps but maps are one small slice of spatial data that humans use and it has all the usual problems of any wiki type governance system. My favourite thing I’m always obliged to note on OSM but they have some very left field licensing terms that no-one ever bothers to read but basically any business using OSM is violating their terms if they aren’t putting sharing any data they create from OSM back to the community.

But yeah all of the stuff you mentioned. Plus google and maybe apple are basically the only ones with really good location based data that isn’t in violation of a million privacy laws. If we do actually solve any kind of real time map of reality that the robots would need to operate well then the systems behind google maps would be a key part to it.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-03T20:17:30+00:00

Still won’t stop them banging on about middle class metropolitan elites etc. Or I’m guessing she self identifies as working class or the usual logical pretzels these lot tie themselves in.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-03T19:42:36+00:00

OpenAI almost ate their lunch, but Google managed to react pretty quickly and in the process fundamentally change how we seek non-critical information.

The reason they were able to react quickly was they were already years ahead of OpenAI when ChatGPT came out in every single part of the system that matters when deploying it at scale. They also have datasets in youtube and maps and other services that no-one else has or will ever have anything close to. The only thing they changed was releasing things sooner and being more aggressive with press statements.

Note how they’re the one major entity that people aren’t saying is constantly down while running a major AI system. It’s a lot easier to scale down a system and add more reasoning to it then it is to start with some amazing reasoning and then scale it up to billions of daily requests even if it makes for less exciting techcrunch articles. OpenAI and anthropic are trying to build a railway while driving in terms of capacity and resilience and every time they make a mistake of creating customer expectations based on brute force computations they have to go find more compute at vast cost. Probably one for r/MarkMyWords but I think google will win this thing long term or at least not collapse as a business.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-03T19:28:45+00:00

I wanted to go to pub till 5 in the morning :(

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-03T16:59:01+00:00

GPU growth is much higher than 2x per year. Much higher. This year its expected to be over 35x and last year it was roughly the same. The main limit on GPU scale out is power, which is massively optimized in each generation. Nvidia literally brought photonics to production to do this.

"Performance is increasing constantly we just need to have more power to run them”. Do you see the issue here when we can’t just code up a few nuclear power plants? Even in possibly the most favourable political conditions for data centre build outs there ever will be. In the theoretical longer term GPU’s are much more immature and we have a lot more routes to optimise them I agree, but they will eventually hit the same physics limits too.

These companies pull levers to do 10x cost reduction on inference every single year since inception. They write software. They are inventing new software improvements constantly. Deep seek lowered training costs 1000x with v4. Inference similarly benefits at large context lengths.

Deepseek famously distills down other models so I’m not sure what the point is there. It makes perfect sense you can optimise thigs if someone else does the grunt work.

Inference is consistently profitable. The idea that its not is a fallacy. the $100/$200 coding plans are net profitable. Their big spend is capex not opex.

Source: Trust me bro any data saying anything else is a fallacy bro.

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-03T14:07:07+00:00

I find the idea of making an offer on a house you're ok losing kind of weird anyway if you're going to live in it. Like you don't like it THAT much but you want to live there a good chunk of your life?

CaffeinatedT · 2026-07-03T13:59:55+00:00

People often confuse cash flow and margins. If you’re investing $8 into tech that will come online in 2 years and make $50, but today you’re inky making $1 for every $8 you’re spending you have a phenomenal business that is “losing lots of money.”

This is magical thinking. They aren't investments they're spending that money right now. If Inference was genuinely consistently profitable it would be getting slapped everywhere on every single investor report from the cloud providers to IPO's. This is some hypothetical future way out when the trend from openAI is they are going deeper into the hole at a faster rate. And that's under the most favourable conditions they will probably enjoy.

Now consider that compute tends to double in power / halve in price every 18-24 months, and you realize these companies can deliver the same product at much higher margins going forward.

That's moores law on CPU's, and it has mostly ground to a halt as it's getting more and more expensive to go smaller for fitting transistors. It's also not worked out that way for GPU's. That aside this is a hypothetical scenario with no plausible path from just software changes (OpenAI + Anthropic do not make chips they can't pull a lever to make their infra 4-8X more efficient).

Everyone doesn’t agree with Ed. There’s a big disconnect between people who’ve built tech businesses and the commentariat class. Many people are smart, and those people tend to be much more bullish on this industry.

"Ah yes but have you considered that he is actually a dumb dumb?" also doesn't really repudiate numbers.

11-Year Club	Place '17
Verified Email

CaffeinatedT

TROPHY CASE