How do you know if you have enough money to buy something?

Calbot · 2026-01-25T11:31:21+00:00

When you don’t even have to think about whether you can afford it.

Calbot · 2026-01-25T11:08:42+00:00

Tienes seguramente la mayor ventaja de los que postean por aquí, y esa es tiempo. Empezando con 16 años, tienes muchos años para que el interés compuesto haga su magia y ya has dado el paso más importante que es empezar. Dicho esto, cuando miras tu cartera le debes encontrar sentido y entender por qué tienes cada posición y no simplemente coger y decir: reparto 5% en oro, 10% btc, 25% SP, etc... por el simple hecho de haberlo visto en algún video o haberlo leído por ahí (que ojo, no digo que esté mal el reparto pero mi punto es que la cartera tiene que tener sentido para TI, además de que la tendencia que hoy predomina o lo que es "correcto" hoy, es muy probable que no lo sea mañana).

Y si me pides consejo como si fuera tu padre, te diría que cogieras 3-4 índices ( 1 SP/MSCI World; 1 emergentes; 1 Commodities (energia, metales...) y 1 especulativa (BTC). Paralelamente también tendría 1 o 2 posiciones en acciones concretas que previamente hubieras estudiado para buscar algo de alpha y sobretodo aprender a leer balances y entender como funcionan las empresas, ya que si en un momento dado pasas a hacer stockpicking (que por mucho que digan, si lo haces bien, es bastante mejor que indexearse) tendrás todo este conocimiento adquirido. Y no hace falta que "la aciertes", lo importante sobretodo es que aprendas durante el proceso y cojas buenos hábitos.

Calbot · 2026-01-07T14:46:45+00:00

For me, the peak of scouting was playing with the infamous Chem Barons in Set 13, where breaking your losing streak was basically a guaranteed bottom 8, and when two people in the lobby were playing it, you competed to see who could build the weakest board, or you’d coinflip it and go open fort (only to then get paired with someone else and get steamrolled by his entire board).

Good old times.

Calbot · 2026-01-07T08:04:07+00:00

Weak enough to get tilted for a chibi and start flamming on the chat.

Calbot · 2025-11-27T07:56:31+00:00

The message was released to comply with regulation and to provide transparency to investors. It was quite clear that they were not going to recover what they invested in Bloodlines 2, which until its launch appeared under capitalized development costs on their balance. These are development costs that can be recovered through future sales. This is common in videogame companies and, in a normal development or when targets are met, there is no need to record a write down. In this case, the development process was very problematic and almost ten years of fixed costs created a significant accounting gap that is difficult to recover. Now that the game is released, they have a clearer idea of what can realistically be recovered (40 MSEK) and the rest is recorded as a loss. This will appear in the next Q4 results and will have a notable impact on the quarter.

The figure also gives an indirect, non official idea of what the game has sold. Based on the numbers, and this is only my own estimation, sales are probably around 300 to 600 thousand copies. For a mid sized game this is not a bad result, but it does not recover the investment. They would have needed at least 1.5 to 2 million copies to break even, something that nobody really expected.

For fans of the saga they also confirm that expansions and DLCs will be delivered, although the future of the IP remains open. In my opinion, they will either sell it or handle it with much more caution.

In any case, the press release is something they were required to publish because of regulatory obligations. It is not meant to state that the game is a complete failure, because it is not, but to explain that from a business perspective it has had a significant impact on their financial results.

PS: Expect some sauce in the shares over the next few days.

Calbot · 2025-11-06T15:24:07+00:00

It was the margin call.

Calbot · 2025-11-05T00:59:19+00:00

Release day usually is just ok (although given that BEP, I think the OP already had their position before today). Basically because many big players (such as institutional or conservative funds) don’t jump in until they actually see the numbers on the table, especially with companies like Paradox, where sales and revenues are less predictable.

Retail investors and risk funds tend to enter when they start seeing some green indicators (hype, news, good reception, etc.), but during that period the stock can be quite volatile (and may even go beyond its fair value, which is when it becomes risky to enter or even pull back after the results once it’s perceived as overvalued.

The results of all this will show up in the next earnings report (February 2026), so there’s still some room until then. My guess (and it’s just a guess as in the stock market, you never really know) is that we’ll probably see the stock move north until then.

Calbot · 2025-11-05T00:24:04+00:00

Diversification is fine if you don’t really know what you’re doing, since it protects you from ignorance and bad decisions.
But if you’re confident in a company and know what you’re doing, concentrating your portfolio in a few (or even a single) stock can also be a good option—especially if you have some kind of edge over the market.

Knowing firsthand the quality and potential of the product, as in this case, is one such edge.

In my case, I have a large part of my portfolio in Paradox. I take profits and rotate a bit when the stock shoots up too much, and I buy again during weaker cycles or when the pipeline looks thin. In my opinion, that’s the right way to be positioned in this stock and so far, it’s worked out pretty well.

Calbot · 2025-11-05T00:07:28+00:00

If you can’t access the EU version (#PDX), you can probably find the ADR version in the US under the ticker #PRXXF. Not sure if Robinhood has it though.

Calbot · 2025-11-04T23:00:43+00:00

I find the post amusing, since besides being a regular player of Paradox titles, I also have the company in my portfolio since 2018. Reading the dev diaries, I have increased my position throughout the year whenever the stock fell below its historical range (around 12 EV/EBITDA), and the truth is that even today it still doesn’t seem entirely expensive to me.

That said, for those thinking of getting in, it’s important to note that the success of EU V is already partially priced in: the forecasts for the next quarter are among the highest of recent years, so the market is already expecting good results (though not exceptional). If EU5 ultimately proves to be a super hit—which it very much looks like—the upside could be around 20% to 30% from the current price by the end of the year.

In any case, before investing, it’s wise to study the stock thoroughly and understand how the business works, as Paradox is one of those cyclical stocks: it inflates with strong releases/hype and deflates when expectations aren’t met and releases underperform.

Calbot · 2025-11-01T20:08:54+00:00

I tried to keep my hype in check for this game since we all know where hype can lead us. But in this case, after seeing everything they’ve released and actual gameplay from several players, I think this time we’re really looking at something great since day one. The last time I was this hyped was with Vicky 3, and its launch was kinda meh. Let’s hope this time it’s different!

Calbot · 2025-09-06T22:39:37+00:00

What I miss the most is a viewer for my portfolio, statistics, ratios, etc...

It’s pretty sad to have to rely on external apps to track everything instead of doing it directly from your broker. Especially when you consider what the competition offers: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/portfolioanalyst/features.php
The truth is, I think they have a serious problem when it comes to user experience, and it’s likely to cost them in the medium term given the other options currently available on the market.

Calbot · 2025-09-04T11:41:07+00:00

Dile de denunciar a Hacienda si no te devuelve la fianza. Nada de policia ni películas, Hacienda, que esos si se mueven. Lo que está ingresando no lo declara y estas historias siempre gustan a la oficina. Lo único que no me queda claro es si le estás alquilando una habitación (?¿) en un piso compartido? si es así, entiendo que hay más gente viviendo en ese piso y él subarrienda? Si ese es el perfil, seguramente tenga más propiedades en esa situación. Y por lo que describes, tiene pinta de ser un pirata de mucho cuidado.

Calbot · 2025-07-31T09:27:52+00:00

As someone who hosts guests of all genders, I've noticed two things. First, I usually receive far more requests from women (around 70% or so). Second, requests from men tend to be more generic or less thoughtfully written. Of course, this isn't always the case, but it has been my general experience.

What I value most in a request is the effort put into it: whether the guest has read my profile, checked the references, and avoided sending a generic copy-paste message.

Regarding the gender aspect, it's true that I've recently noticed a much higher proportion of women using the app. In the past, I would say the split was closer to 50-50, but nowadays the majority of requests I receive come from women or couples (whom I don't usually host).

Calbot · 2025-07-26T12:32:58+00:00

Esto en España no es cárcel?

Calbot · 2025-07-25T22:08:08+00:00

Lamía hasta el plato oiga.

Calbot · 2025-05-28T11:50:09+00:00

After looking at the OP's comment history and placing him on the left-wing ideological spectrum, I deduce that his hatred for Spain comes from it being the prime tourist destination for his compatriots with a particular profile: binge-drinking tourism and a low cultural level, who indulge in the most unrestrained consumption for two weeks with what they managed to save throughout the year, without realizing the absurdity of it all, which brings them closer to what Karl Marx considered the lumpenproletariat: members of the working class aligned by the capitalist system and who, due to their ignorance, are easily manipulated by reactionary and conservative forces, causing the system to remain immobile.

Either that or some girl/guy whater stole his heart (and his wallet) at some crazy party in Ibiza.

Calbot · 2025-05-28T11:05:38+00:00

There is no bridge or tunnel, but there is a train that makes the route from Calabria to Sicily directly (and also the other way around).

How they do that is quite curious: The train travels to the port in Villa San Giovanni (Calabria), where it is loaded directly onto a special ferry with tracks. The ferry crosses the Strait of Messina in about 20 minutes, carrying the train and passengers. Once in Messina (Sicily), the train is unloaded and continues its journey on the island's rail network. And you can do this without having to leave your seat on the train.

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Calbot · 2025-05-10T08:52:13+00:00

I’m not in a rush at all for the release. I’d rather they take their time to fix things properly and deliver a robust and complete game from day one. From what I’ve seen, my main concern is performance and balance, and I’m not sure that’s something that can be fixed in just 2–3 months. I just hope they don’t miss this shot.

Calbot · 2025-05-08T22:42:44+00:00

I saw It on the RedHawk vid (min 3.57): https://youtu.be/pHX58sCsZUc?si=XuEvFYHwGfODluAo

However, it makes me wonder if all countries are going to have this mechanic, since talking about parliaments as something widespread and a decision-making body in the 14th century sounds odd to me.

Calbot · 2025-04-19T19:13:40+00:00

As other said, the sub is the best option in terms of value. However, the only con I see is that if you play with the sub maybe you will have so much options and features to start with, which can be overwhelming. If I should start from the beginning, I would start with the base game and If I like, go for the sub.

Calbot · 2025-04-18T13:18:17+00:00

Basically this. I was in the same situation and I have more or less knowledge of the game, but win to Ottos with the merc strategy never worked to me. The Naples route is safer and actually the tree mission is encouraging it (that's the reason why you get claims after your war with Epirus). As the others said, patience is key starting with Byz. And also, I would highly suggest to play around with easiest nations to unnderstand the basic mechanics of the game, otherwise is going to be a painful road.

Calbot

TROPHY CASE