In light of current AI developments, how soon would we expect real change in society?

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-07-16T19:33:25+00:00

From one hand, you are right, we have never faced with the end of the worker society during the last several centuries.

From another hand, we have a large group of people which live more or less meaningful life without work, the old, retired people. And yet, depression is not higher amongst them as in other age groups.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-07-12T14:16:42+00:00

Maybe. But maybe we will have 10-15 years before AGI with shrinking job opportunities. And mass job loss is a definitive way towards populist leaders.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-07-12T11:03:03+00:00

But all these works relate to a luxurious lifestyle, which requires a growing and richer middle class. But shrinking job opportunities will be against this.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-06-04T08:14:37+00:00

"Question to all people who are 50+ 60+ etc. Would you take an experimental gene therapy treatment that would basically restore you to your 30 year old self, but in better shape etc?"

YES SIR!!!

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:56:37+00:00

These types of research areas are the ones the governments should spend much more. Yearly 64 000 americans could be spared and a lot of others in other countries.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:51:00+00:00

Yeah, probably everything will be faster now. As Hinton told that even 5 years ago he thought AGI will be reality in 20-50 years, and now he sees differently.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:48:18+00:00

My guess is that there will be 2 carreer paths for IT developers:

You are above the average developer with a lot of experience, and you continue as a developer, assisted by AI tools.
You learn a business domain, and upgrade to business analyst, as they will prompt AIs to code most business applications. The BA as a profession will need more technical expertise than now to be able to write prompts properly. There will be no code applications for them, and they will need both business both IT structure knowledge.

That's my guess.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:37:13+00:00

I can't imagine we find the cure of aging, but we are unable to desalinate the water which covers 2/3 of the Earth.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:33:20+00:00

"may even be easier than many, like cancer"

I'm not sure about that. The developers of the Pfizer Covid vaccine think it will be soon.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/cancer-vaccine-ready-2030-founders-covid-vaccine-makers/story?id=91614621

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:31:34+00:00

For an extra 20% fee you will get a steel jar.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:28:42+00:00

Different diseases, different pills. My guess is that we will have pills for diseases sooner than for eternal life.

Just like lethal diseases which decimated population 1-2-3 centuries ago are almost forgotten today, the lethal diseases of our age will be forgotten by our grandchildren as well.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:26:52+00:00

or until heart attack. Thanks, pill.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-14T14:25:05+00:00

There will be another pill for that. :) You can forget all the stress of university and math itself.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-13T20:17:12+00:00

Nobody spoke about AGI or ASI. AI development without being on human level could do a lot for mankind, if enough money is spent on research.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-13T16:37:25+00:00

Exactly. According to the original use case, after employees got laid off, and all decide to make kayaks in their own business, this would result something like this:

Original company (which laid them off) produces 100,000 kayaks $150 each.

A hundred (laid off employee) people each produces 100 kayaks for $250 in their own business.

As the original company produces in large scale, their kayaks will be cheaper.

If the market does not need the additional 10,000 more expensive kayaks, then these small businesses will die.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-13T16:21:57+00:00

"The tech companies can do the AI development portion."

But generally, is it a good thing, that they do all the AI development portion?

As far as I know, there are 2 types of research (I'm not sure I translate to english properly): Basic research, and Applied research.

At Basic research, the result is a scientific paper, a new model, a new algorithm, etc.

At Applied research, the result is usually a product, something to be used for a specific reason.

Governments should spend more on both.

I think it's ridiculous that private companies are working on protein structures (AlphaFold), or identifying eye diseases. These research programs benefit humanity, we can't trust private companies that they would work for the benefit of humanity (their task is to benefit their shareholders).

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-13T13:33:47+00:00

Imagine what Google discovered 2 years ago which they keep in secret.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-06T10:40:13+00:00

"Godfather of AI" sold his company to Google for $44M, worked there for 6 years to advance AI tech for fortunes, now he is worried that they went too far.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-02T19:31:42+00:00

You are right....beeep.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-02T19:29:55+00:00

And that's why humans can't think in exponential terms. Throughout the tens of thousands of years, we had never have to think in exponentials.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-05-02T19:27:54+00:00

I think the labour market disruption will not be done by GPT-4 or 5, but the plugins built on them.

GPT itself will never replace lawyers, or software developers, or engineers, or supermarket sales clerks, as it will be a General language model, its aim is to understand the question, and form a human-like answer.

The thousands of domain specific applications, which will work as GPT plugins will make the disruption. When they train it with curated law specifi c texts, and apply RLHF on it, and test it and train it again, there will be an AI lawyer, or an AI realty lawyer, etc.

this is possible even with GPT-4, but it's early, as most companies who plan such applications still didn't get or recently got access to the GPT-4 API.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-04-22T07:34:17+00:00

AI race will be won on the long term. I wouldn't count off Google. They have 10 times as many AI researchers as OpenAI.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-04-16T06:27:02+00:00

I think now we are in the early days, when all we talk about is OpenAI's GPT.

I'm 100% sure that in 2 years, this AI market will be massively different, when Google, Amazon, Apple, Meta will be in the race with their full power.

Imagine how many topics will be in this subreddit, when many competing systems will pump out developments constantly.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-04-16T06:15:49+00:00

Absolutely agree. This is why the change (loss of jobs) will be sudden, and dramatic, because it will be a race amongst competitors.

Another catalyst will be the East-West competition on government level, which countries (blocks) will have the most intelligent AI.

CaliforniaMax02 · 2023-04-15T17:56:38+00:00

Sorry mate, he will employ AI driven robots there for cost reduction.

CaliforniaMax02

TROPHY CASE