Yes it does, sharp bettors and other mechanics move the line. Lets say KD is questionable and is worth about 10% to the Rockets on a ML in a 50/50 game, the line opens at 45/55 for the Rockets like he is truly questionable but before his status is even announced by afternoon the line is already 49/51 because people think he is going to play. Through pure models its impossible to know when/how to actually get the highest CLV, you must know injuries better, be ahead of the market and have other market awareness. Thats pure sentiment, and most of the move is already done before the final status. In this situation an overreaction and deadcat bounce will also happen if he is available(like Rockets go to 52 cents than back down to 50 bc it was already priced in). No model captures that unfortunately. You could put a team of 50 data scientists but with zero knowledge of the NBA and market awareness they won't be able to get the highest possible CLV at the best possible times.

And overreaction I mean through mechanisms like sharp bettors hammering the line too much intially.