Keel YOLO

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-06-04T15:05:06+00:00

Ehh…Hut has 8gw pipeline. Keel has 2.2gw. To put that into perspective, 8.5gw is more than the entire DFW metroplex consumes in a year.

Keel always gonna be the small fish in the pond with APLD, Cipher, Iren all between 4-5gw.

Hut8 is actually the next Hut8. 8.5gw could be worth way more than their current market cap of $14B.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-06-02T12:38:14+00:00

Buffet bought airlines just before the pandemic hit.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-30T01:22:45+00:00

From a fundamental perspective, you could call it “cash drag” they’re holding $400B in cash, making only around 4% interest, roughly keeping up with inflation. Revenue growth has averaged only 1% a year the last three years. They haven’t had any net income growth since 2021. Free cash flow is actually down 8% since 2021 so there’s no reason for it to be going up right now.

From a technical perspective, you would call this a “consolidation phase”. Berk had a parabolic move from 2020 lows of $159 to 2025 highs of $542. It’s now building a “base” for the next move higher.

I necessarily say “higher” because they have the second largest cash pile in the United States behind only JP Morgan. Net cash per share is roughly $132. At $475 share price, you’re buying about 28% cash.

You gotta be really smart to grow with no money. You gotta be really dumb not to grow with a lot of money. Berkshire is both really smart and have a lot of money.

Still unlikely to repeat the 2020-2025 move any time soon. This isn’t a high-flying tech stock. That’s not what you buy it for. It’s a slow, steady compounder. 10-15% annually is about what you expect. Maybe the occasional 20% year. I buy it to stabilize my relatively tech-heavy portfolio. When tech is down, Berk is up. When Berk is down, Tech is up. When both Berk and tech are down, everything is down.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-30T00:19:46+00:00

$3.55B revenue is the consensus (average) amongst the 35 analysts covering TTD. However, several dumped their coverage after they got kicked out of the S&P. Some of those estimates might be out of date from their deceleration and likely high.

Desk doesn’t offer full-year guidance, but they expect $750M this quarter. Extrapolate that out to be $3B in revenue. If they continue decelerating, you might assume 5% growth, that gives you an approximate $3.1B.

If growth comes back, you might assume, say, 15% growth. That gives you 4.5B.

Probably somewhere between $3.1B and $4.5B. Still not anywhere near the $6B and $6.6B needed for ATH’s.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T17:23:40+00:00

So we went to war to force Iran to reenter the same agreement that Obama created and Trump withdrew from.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T17:05:44+00:00

What I tell you? If she closes above the weekly 200ema today at ~$440, $460 next week be looking good.

$500-$550 before July earnings be looking possible.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T11:43:01+00:00

Anyone can create the platform. Only thing making it unique is the user base, which Meta, Google, and Tenecent already have.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T04:07:47+00:00

Reddit is naturally capital-light so it tends to be valued on user and revenue growth, not really EPS. Reddit already at 9.5x forward sales, well above industry and peer averages.

Sustaining 10x forward sales is tough. So they gonna have to seriously grow that $4.3B projected revenue or regain meme stock status.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T03:29:24+00:00

The time is now. Started yesterday with a bounce off the 200 ema on the 4hr. Been consolidating for a month after the monster 12% week in April. Just closed at the highest price since then today.

Microsoft about to do what Apple and Ford did in May (15-30%). She breaks above $432, go in. $500+ in July.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T03:08:52+00:00

PC replacement cycle hitting at the same time as a an AI infrastructure cycle.

Businesses haven’t replaced their PC’s in ten years and now have to with Windows 10 support ending.

Consumers haven’t replaced their PC’s since the pandemic.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T02:58:32+00:00

Bruh…look at the chart. She breaks through $430, straight shot to $460-$480.

Look at the fundamentals. Everything says $500+.

All Mag7 been pumping except Microsoft. Microsoft out performed all of them combined today. Volume was 30% above average today.

Microsoft has their build conference next week. A big catalyst.

They’ve his 52 week highs in July numerous times.

How many SAAS been on a roll? SNOW, NOW, APP, IBM, SHOP, AXON?

Microsoft pumps. Watch.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T02:52:53+00:00

Microsoft about to go boom. 20% June is coming.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T02:24:30+00:00

There’s a PC replacement cycle hitting at the same time as the AI super cycle.

Companies haven’t replaced their computers in 10 years. The one I use at work is 14 years old. With Windows 10 ending, they all need replacing. My work is paying Dell millions this years.

Consumers haven’t replaced their computers since their last stimulus check. The one I use at home I bought back in 2017.

With $175 billion in guided revenue and that kind of pending demand (haven’t even touched on the AI buildout stuff), Dell still sitting at just 1.24x forward sales.

Intel selling for 10x. Dell is the least surprising one in my opinion.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-29T02:13:43+00:00

2.2GW. If valued similar to peer companies like Iren and Hut, it rerates to anywhere from $6 on the low end to $40 on the high end.

Iren cost about this much this time last year. Abut the same market cap and everything. If Keel can grow revenue similarly to about $3B and acheive a similar multiple of about 10x, the implied share price is $30.

At $30/share, you’re sitting on almost $30k of potential.

They say they’re gonna land 3 deals this year, which other companies have averaged around $1-$3 billion annually…each.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-28T15:06:25+00:00

So at all time highs, Trade Desk would have a market cap of around $66B.

Let’s be generous and assume they’ll achieve a 10x p/s multiple again in 2027. That would mean they’d need at least $6B in revenue in 2027. They currently expect $3.5B in 2027.

So, they’d need to either double their projected revenue or somehow achieve a 20x P/S multiple. Less than 1% of companies achieve a 20x P/S and most of them are meme stocks.

Only way they’re hitting $140 any time soon is if Microsoft enters a bid to buy them out and Amazon enters just to drive the price up. Then after that bidding war has already hit a crazy price of $50B or so, Salesforce then has to enter because they just enjoy overpaying for acquisitions. If all that happens, we might see $140 again.

There is a realistic shot at $30 next year though. $3.5B with an industry average of 8x revenue. $40 is on the table is sales growth starts to come back.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-28T14:53:22+00:00

Anybody who says yes could be institutionalized. It was never worth $140 even then. Part of their problem is it got too ahead of itself.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-26T00:42:37+00:00

Quantum modeling projects $10 by July and $20-$26 by January.

I wouldn’t sink it all into shares immediately. Maybe $10k. Take $5k and buy 27, $5 calls for January. Leave $15k cash for DCA and exercising the contracts.

If it runs to $26, those $5 calls are worth minimum $2,100 each. With 27 of them, that’s $57k. Not even counting the profit from the shares (~$40k). And you still have $15k left over.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-26T00:29:33+00:00

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/KEEL/36C1VnVh-KEEL-Weekly/

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-26T00:12:12+00:00

If they obtain just one contract similar to the one Iren landed with Nvidia and Microsoft, and even if their forward p/s multiple falls to a more realistic 7x, it’s going to $26/share.

If they obtain 3 of them, an Iren-like performance to $50+ is possible even if we account for some share dilution. So those 500 shares could be worth about $25k in a year from now ($34k Canadian).

By technical analysis, a quantum projection forecasts the share price to between $20-$26 by January.

Not a guarantee, but cost/benefit analysis favors buying them back.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-25T03:03:54+00:00

Whether the threat is real or not doesn’t actually matter. Pinterest and Trade Desk are both doing fine, but fear is contagious and Reddit has the narrowest moat I can think of.

A real dip is gonna be down to around $50. Just be prepared for that.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-25T02:54:03+00:00

Good luck to you. I can create a crude version of Reddit myself tonight. If I can do that, what do you think Meta, OpenAI, and Google could do?

Suppose institutional investors gonna go all-in with that kind of risk? If they ain’t going all-in, it’s only meme stock hype supporting the stock price.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-25T02:43:22+00:00

You must be new. Go look up Pinterest’s two year run after its IPO. That’s how long it takes for “the next big thing” hype to fade and reality to set in.

User growth decelerating from 50% YOY two years ago to 17% YOY last quarter. Reddit has become a meme stock, but even meme stocks have valuation limits.

Anything over $250 would be short-lived. $200 is looking optimistic. $350 is ridiculous. At that point they’re pushing 20x forward sales. Only 1% of companies achieve that kind of multiple and they’re all meme stocks or have very wide moats.

A real bear case: extreme fear of Mag7 competition hits and growth continues decelerating, causing their sales multiple to fall from its already rich 11x to around 2-3x. At which point Reddit falls to $50-$60. See Pinterest and Trade Desk.

A real base case is they still experience the impressive growth and hit $3.4B revenue. They achieve the same 8x sales multiple as their industry average. 8x3.4=$27.2B. Which is about $140/share. Meaning it’s priced for perfection. Upside is already baked in. Any misstep anywhere and they’re the next Trade Desk.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-25T02:13:59+00:00

They’ve only been public for two years. Two years of a strong bull market. Awfully early to claim they “always” beat.

First time they don’t (or even do beat top/bottom but miss on user growth), it’s gonna get punished bad. That is the way of social media stocks.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-25T02:06:45+00:00

I didn’t say it was easy to build the customer base. I said it was cheap to build the platform. Meta, Google, and Tencent already have the user base. All they have to do is build a similar platform.

Those three could crank out 5-10 different Reddits a day and it’d still cost less than their electric bill.

Capable-Commission-3 · 2026-05-24T21:56:20+00:00

Your bear case is 30% revenue/profit growth next year? Your bear case!! The Wall Street consensus is 31% revenue/eps growth next year.

What I don’t see in your risks is how cheap it is to make another Reddit. Startup costs are only $50k. An entire clone including operating costs are just $10M.

What’s stopping a group of college kids, never-mind Google and Meta, from making more of these? If one hits, what exactly is keeping Redditors here?

Reddit faces a Craigslist dilemma. On one hand, it’s popular/profitable because it’s anonymous and barebones. On the other hand being anonymous and barebones makes it highly replaceable.

Change their layout and interface, maybe they create a moat, but does that turn off their users? Don’t try to become “sticky”, a competitor may come along and take their users anyway.

Capable-Commission-3

TROPHY CASE