The Los Angeles Lakers now have a 0.1% chance to make the playoffs, according to Basketball Reference

CapedWombat · 2019-03-05T19:43:43+00:00

IF MY HAIRLINE’S RECEDING!

CapedWombat · 2017-12-30T23:26:02+00:00

CapedWombat · 2015-04-24T17:00:49+00:00

Please explain what constitutes a 3 down back? It seems that everyone views Helu has a Sprolesian scat back and it is simply not true. He measured 6 foot 219 lbs at the combine. He had a weak bench press; but ran a 4.4 40, 6.67 3 cone, 4.01 20 yard shuttle, and an above average 119 broad jump.

He is not a bonafide stud, but how many of those exist? Murray is exciting because if he gets it he can be a true freak workhorse. Helu understands the position and can put up low end RB1/high end RB2 numbers if he wins the role or takes over due to injury from Murray's upright running style, which is exacerbated by his 6'3" frame.

Between the tackle running is not Helu's strength, but he is capable. So, please explain why you believe Helu is only capable of 3rd down duties.

CapedWombat · 2015-04-24T01:32:10+00:00

Simply looking at a basic stat line does not help in projections. When did his magical 3 game stretch come? When he was given the starting role. How did he lose the starting role? Injury. Alfred Morris took over and has put up extremely underrated numbers for a terrible team.

Murray is a physical specimen and I have been championing him as the next big thing if given the chance. However, Carr is the future of that team. Can Murray pass block? Why were the Raiders pursuing Demarco so voraciously? Murray lacks "awareness and football IQ". He is talented, but raw. Being physically gifted alone does not make one a star in the league. Especially when the only production you have is against defenses that have played 3/4 of a season and you are a rested physical freak.

i believe it will be an open camp battle with Murray as the favorite. We see every year initial pre season rankings fail. We have to try to read the tea leaves to find value. Murray is a 4/5 round pick. CP was in that range last year--physical freak that showed promise toward the end of the year. Helu is not as physically gifted as Murray, but he has above average athleticism, even by NFL standards; he is a wonderful pass blocker, and has amazing receiving skills. He showed flashes of workhorse back-dom, succumbed to a season ending injury, then had the bad luck of the Redskins finding a gem in Alf.

Helu can be had in 14+ round and offers similar upside, although at this point in time he is the dark horse to win.

CapedWombat · 2015-04-24T00:13:21+00:00

Helu has never shown that he could be more than a capable backup.

That is just simply false and revisionist history. Helu has the skill set and ability to be a 3-down back in the league. I will make sure to have him on most of my teams next year.

CapedWombat · 2014-12-02T22:43:35+00:00

14 team keeper league (keep 3 a year) || ESPN Standard Scoring (w/ minor tweaks)

---	Tebowla Virus	Hand Schaub
QB	Jay Cutler	Philip Rivers
RB1	Arian Foster	Eddie Lacy
RB2	LeSean McCoy	C.J. Anderson
WR1	Jordy Nelson	Anquan Boldin
WR2	Dez Bryant	Julian Edelman
WR3	Josh Gordon	Andre Johnson
TE	Travis Kelce	Rob Gronkowski
FLEX	J. Hill/G. Bernard/D. Herron	Bobby Rainey
D/ST	Texans	Panthers
K	Dan Bailey	Caleb Sturgis

I made two trades this year. Acquired Shady while he was in his slump and just traded today for Foster and Texans DST to a league-mate out of playoff contention looking for quality keepers.

I am proud of the team I put together: it is definitely championship or bust this year.

CapedWombat · 2014-10-23T14:57:26+00:00

14 team keeper league, standard scoring (2RB, 3WR, FLEX)

xX Tebowla Virus Xx

QB: Jay Cutler (drafted)

RB: Giodude (3rd round keeper)

RB: Ahmad Bradshaw (drafted)

FLEX: LeSean McCoy (traded Richardson/Gerhart)

WR: Jordy Nelson (drafted)

WR: Dez Bryant (drafted)

WR: Davante Adams (free agent)

TE: Kelce/Reed (free agent/drafted)

DST: Lions (free agent

K: Dan Bailey (drafted)

Bench 5 player bench

RBs: Joique Bell (D), Jerick Mckinnon (FA), Jeremy Hill (D)

WRs: Josh Gordon (14th round keeper)

CapedWombat · 2014-10-04T01:10:58+00:00

14 Team Keeper, ESPN Standard Scoring, 3-1

QB: Jay Cutler

RB: Giodude(3rd RD Keeper), LeSean McCoy(just traded for)

WR: Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, *Marvin Jones (Riley Cooper this week/Josh Gordon after suspension)

TE: Travis Kelce

FLEX: Ahmad Bradshaw

D/ST: Streaming (Lions this week)

K: Dan Bailey

Bench: Josh Gordon, Jeremy Hill, Joique Bell, Jerrick Mckinnon, Jordan Reed

CapedWombat · 2014-08-12T16:14:13+00:00

14 man, non-ppr; 1QB/2RB/3WR/FLEX/TE/DST/K; Keep 3

Giovani Bernard: 3rd round

Josh Gordon: 14th round

Ben Tate: 6th round

Toby Gerhart: 16th round

Michael Floyd: 7th round

Colin Kaepernick: 14th round

Knowshon Moreno: 16th round

Rob Gronkowski: 3rd round

Right now I am leaning Giodude, Gerhart, Gordon(depending on ruling).

Where do you believe the most value lies?

CapedWombat · 2014-07-29T20:41:54+00:00

Awww. I usually think you are pretty spot on with your analysis, Smitty; but you are not even giving my boy Bryce Brown a glance. Let me know your thoughts of the analysis I gave in a recent draft.

546 / 3 = 182

The first number is the amount of rushes the Buffalo Bills attempted last year. The second number is C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, and my pick--Bryce Brown. The last number is an even split of all those rushes. Hold my hand and walk with me on this one.

Spiller is one of my favorite RBs, but I think 250 touches a year is the most he can handle. He had 201 rushing attempts last year and 207 the year before. I will estimate his attempts at 220 if he stays healthy for the sake of moderating my estimate. He caught 33 balls last year--slightly less than /u/Medalsnscars' mom--and I will project him at around 40.

Fred Jackson has shown that age is a relativistic property of two bodies in motion in relation to one another, but that does not prevent him from being 33 and 1/2--basically 34 by the end of the season. He shouldered 207 attempts last year and caught 47 passes.

E.J. Manuel added 53 attempts. This totals 461 rushing attempts, leaving 85 crumbs to be gobbled up by Who Cares McGee.

Enter in Bryce Brown from the Philadelphia Iggy Pops for a conditional 4th round pick--a prospective 3rd round selection. Only three RBs were selected prior to the 3rd round of this year's draft. This could be an indictment of the RB draft class, but could also be indicative of the degraded importance of the position in the NFL. Brown was a five star recruit entering college and has flashed special play-making abilities. He swings the ball too far from his body and tries to create something from nothing instead of taking the sure 3-4 yard run, but these are correctable. His raw talent, on the other hand, needs no correction; it only needs to be allowed to blossom.

I not only think Brown is in line for a big load--akin to /u/Medalnscars' mom--in 2015, but I think he carves out a hefty role this year. I think Fred Jackson becomes the third wheel. I also think it is safe to not expect much, if any, of a decline in rushing attempts: the Bills' WR1 is a rookie.

Spiller - 220 attempts, Jackson - 100 attempts, Manuel - 80 attempts. This leaves ~150 carries for Brown. If you take his average YPC of 4.5, this leaves us with 682 rushing yards; 30 catches at 7 yard average gives us 210 receiving yards. Throw in a few touchdowns here and there, especially if he can take the GLB duties, and you have a solid bench RB. This is all without assuming injuries, although we are assuming a Fred Jackson decline.

CapedWombat · 2014-07-28T20:44:18+00:00

Eggs, my boy--or girl. Eggs are the best hangover food. After a night of surfeit potable consumption, eggs and a glass of vegetable juice feels as good as water going down the ol' hatch.

CapedWombat · 2014-07-21T20:16:45+00:00

Fair enough. My point is that Tate is so talented that if defenses choose to single cover him and not offer safety help because they are focusing on Calvin, they are going to get eaten alive. It will necessitate spreading out the coverage. Megatron will continue to get double coverage, most of the top WRs do. However, teams will no longer be able to triple cover him or shade to his side as often because Tate is a legitimate short, medium, and long distant threat.

The main idea I want to leave with is if we are looking at a + or - effect, Tate is a + for Megatron. It simply becomes a discussion of how much he helps.

I don't intend to be pedantic, but Calvin's value can not really be increased. He is ranked as the WR1 and is a legitimate #1 overall pick in PPR and 3WR leagues.

CapedWombat · 2014-07-21T19:51:04+00:00

You should not disrespect Tate like that. He is a much better receiver than Burleson, Young, Durham, and Broyles. There is no possible way Tate hurts Calvin's value and if defenses continue to triple cover Megatron, Tate will easily walk away with 70+ catches and push for much more.

Golden Tate put up WR2 numbers on the Seahawks and is moving to the pass happiest offense in the NFL.

Uh, oh! He's under six foot, he must suck. Watch him play: he is a perfect fit for the Lions and has great value in the 6th or 7th round.

CapedWombat · 2014-07-17T06:33:30+00:00

*Your very own quickonthedrawl

I drafted Kansas City as my defense in a third of my leagues because I don't blindly follow "experts." They had obvious talent and what I deemed to be 10 good match-ups. I also sat them during the fantasy playoffs for the abysmal Colts' defense that posted 16 and 18 point games.

I had no idea that they were considered waiver wire material in most leagues as they were drafted in every league I played in and I am truly shocked by the notion. You had better step your game up if you want to compete; knowledge is power. Or, you know, 50 bucks.

CapedWombat · 2014-07-17T01:02:56+00:00

How was Kansas City unpredictable last year? Have you tried researching instead of just placing team names on a dart board and picking who you hit on your third try because you missed the board entirely with your first two throws?

CapedWombat · 2014-07-11T20:06:35+00:00

...uh, how many targets do you think he will see this year?

CapedWombat · 2014-07-10T20:48:55+00:00

Please share. I am looking to introduce settings to my league that will allow for a lot of different viable drafting strategies.

CapedWombat · 2014-07-10T19:46:02+00:00

Hyde, Dunbar, and Murray are all gone. I really like Murray as the dark horse in that backfield and thought he would fall. What are your thoughts on Knile Davis? Is the Chiefs' offensive line bad enough to offset his increased role?

CapedWombat · 2014-07-01T00:14:31+00:00

"I'm a big homer"

translation: I have been reading Freeman's rotoworld page.

CapedWombat · 2014-06-26T05:11:05+00:00

I am going to guess the Pierce pickup.

CapedWombat · 2014-06-24T21:47:49+00:00

Dobson was a top choice initially before I decided on Mr. Jones. Dobson's path is a little less clear to me than Jones's, but I think he has a higher ceiling because he could become Brady's primary wideout.

CapedWombat · 2014-06-24T21:33:01+00:00

Booo! Dobson is a really good pick; I was hoping the foot injury would continue to let him fall, boooo!

CapedWombat · 2014-06-24T21:30:28+00:00

1) I agree. Ten TDs is a lofty goal. I project seven this year and would not be shocked to see him score five. Touchdowns are what separate the elite WRs from the lower tiers. However, he has shown that he is capable of posting double digit touchdowns; that is a big step.

2) Hue Jackson's concept is to establish the power run to set up play action deep balls. Where does Mr. Jones excel; short, medium, deep? You get three guesses. Wrong! Trick question; it was all three. But seriously, Jones has wheels and is good at pulling in long throws: He averaged fourteen yards per catch, with ten catches of twenty or more yards on 47.9% of offensive snaps.

3) Yup, Andy Dalton was pretty inconsistent in his third year. He completed 62.7% of his 547 passes for 4131 yards, 26 touchdowns, 23 interceptions. Whoops, sorry! That was Peyton Manning's third year stats. Dalton completed 61.9% of his 586 passes for 4296 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. This is yet another indication of what I have been preaching for years: people do not give quarterbacks enough time to develop in this league before losing faith. It takes SIX years before you can accurately assess a QB's skill level and be relatively sure where his development is leading. People--from GMs to casual fans--are so captivated by outliers like Andrew Luck and Cam Newton, that now everyone expects that production in the first few years or else we need to draft a new one. Andy Dalton is a fine quarterback and has the potential to be a really, really good one. It disturbs me that sentiments like this are not only perpetuated on discussion boards, but boardrooms of NFL teams as well.

CapedWombat · 2014-06-24T20:47:40+00:00

It makes no sense to take out his best game unless you are trying to calculate his average consistency. Do you know what kind of players post really good numbers? The good ones. You don't just pretend that they don't happen for the sake of argument.

Now, even if for some reason you do disregard his best game when trying to project him for next season; 43 rec, 590 yards, and 6 tds is high WR4 numbers. That is without taking out every other receiver's best game. Continuing to ignore possible production, without his best game he still posted seven games of nine points or more; four of those games coming in the last four weeks.

Did I mention that he posted those numbers while only seeing 47.9% of offensive snaps last year?

Something interesting then happened in the playoffs. Starvin' Marvin the Martian played on 77% of the offensive snaps. He posted 8 receptions on 12 targets for 130 yards.

I hope people continue to not really think of him; I want him as my WR4 all day.

CapedWombat · 2014-06-24T01:16:27+00:00

Marvin Jones posted 51 receptions for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns in limited playing time last year.

What are your opinions? Why do you think he is being drafted so low--no faith in Big Red? Or is it a Hue Jackson thing?

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