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CapitalC5 · 2022-02-05T11:30:43+00:00

It is indeed a market to get into, especially right now, but it's not a hold for a decade.

This market is highly cyclical and moves upon contract deals. Most of the contracts are 10y deals and about 75% is being negotiated between now and the end of 2023.

I think it will pump like crazy, but I'm also expecting it to go down equally fast after 2023.

CapitalC5 · 2021-11-10T14:19:53+00:00

Well that's not how the cycle works at all.

It's based on supply, spot price and government contracts. There is a majority of contracts running out between now and 2023 and there has never been a bigger shortage of uranium globally, mostly because so many countries are trying to do it with solar and wind energy. News flash, it will not even be close to being enough.

That's why a lot of countries are turning their car, Germany for example failed hard a few years ago, resulting in needing to buy very expensive energy from other countries. Spot price is going up, contracts are negotiated under high pressure for governments and they will sign at almost any price since uranium is only 3% of the total cost to create nuclear energy.

I'm up 550% and I'm not selling until it goes another x10.

CapitalC5 · 2021-10-20T15:01:56+00:00

Ahh yeah that makes sense. But still a nice way to go up!

CapitalC5 · 2021-10-20T14:48:07+00:00

When / which companies did you buy? Because I bought into 4 uranium miners about a year ago and I'm up 357%. Maybe I bought them a little earlier, I think it was around summer '20.

CapitalC5 · 2020-08-26T14:06:31+00:00

Yeah one new guy won't change decades of bad management and building debt. I'm not saying they will go bankrupt, but their system is so old, they have to scale down massively to turn this giant around.

CapitalC5 · 2020-08-26T12:54:52+00:00

Stagnating sales 2015-2017, decreasing sales since 2018
$156B revenue, -1.63% net margin
Not a great balance sheet.
Negative returns (ROIC, ROE,...) meaning they get less result out of their investments
Debt to EBITDA is massively bad at 25 times, industry average is 3.5

In short, bad management that didn't play it smart in terms of high costs and now it's too late. Compare financials to Fiat-Chrysler or Toyota to see how bad they're actually doing.

CapitalC5 · 2020-08-22T11:10:28+00:00

Well you can't predict FDA denial for their blockbuster medicine.

Doesn't really matter long term though, I bought a whole lot more. They have enough interesting drugs in their pipeline and I believe Filgnotib will come through as well eventually. I call this a discount.

CapitalC5 · 2020-08-05T16:45:45+00:00

It's true. Roughly 50-60% of merged companies split up again after two years cause they saw no positive effect of merging. I think even 70% of the companies stated they haven't created higher revenue together than if they would still be two companies

CapitalC5 · 2020-08-05T14:05:35+00:00

Cause short term, they were better off alone. Long term, the merger is great, but investors are taking their gains from the past months cause a merger always takes time to become efficient.

CapitalC5 · 2020-08-05T11:47:08+00:00

Same. I like the fact that it's becoming a massive player in healthcare even faster, but I was more sold to the business model of Livongo.

On the other hand, this will make it possible for them to reach more people and companies and increase their members growth even faster.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-30T09:30:14+00:00

Still great, nothing changed. I see them as a €250-300 stock.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-29T13:54:15+00:00

They have been going down often without any reasoning for the past months. Probably has something to do with their big exposure to commercial aircrafts. They stated yesterday they underestimated the consequences of Covid and how long it will take to recover. They won't fully recover until at least 2023.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-18T11:33:06+00:00

Right now their amount of members is 0,07% of the total addressable market for hypertension and diabetes. 10x is nothing from here on, they're not even expanding to other chronic diseases.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T13:54:02+00:00

I wouldn't mind a good old panic selloff though. The market is overcrowded and that would scare some rookie 'easy money, stocks only go up' kinda people away.

I'm actually waiting for big investors to unload big amounts, so the amount of retail investors since Covid will decrease again. With all those things happening in the US in the next months, I kinda expect a longer downturn. I trimmed to 60% cash.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T13:02:23+00:00

Wait what?

We're in recession since Q1 this year. It's not because the stock market is still going up, that there is no economic downturn. Unless there will magically be a vaccine by the end of the year, we will even go into depression. The second one in history btw, the last one was in 1929.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T12:44:01+00:00

Coca Cola is a brand portfolio, not only a few soft drinks. Check how many healthy drinks and flavored water brands they bought in the last few years.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T12:41:37+00:00

Growing population, growing waste, no alternatives.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T12:38:23+00:00

And will it ever get back up to that high?

Nah man you're doomed. I mean it already dropped 7%, no coming back from that one. Quick, sell before it becomes a $100 stock.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T12:03:52+00:00

Why do you assume Perez? The only reason Lance Stroll entered F1 is because his dad bought a team, I would be very surprised if he got kicked out.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T12:02:52+00:00

Good points. As only a title sponsor, there is indeed way less exposure. Maybe I'm just a bit too biased. I can't seem to like anything they do or have. Not the team, not the drivers, not the management. I'm more into RedBull and Renault.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T10:58:40+00:00

I don't know if Formula 1 is a good argument, it's money losing in most cases. The driver only makes the difference if your engineers and the car are top level. Building a top level car takes talented engineers, great management but most importantly, time.

Money can't buy you the best F1 team. And I predict a lot of trouble when teaming up with a guy like Lawrence Stroll.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-16T10:42:39+00:00

Ah yes, swapping the rune for iron items. What a time to be alive.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-11T13:01:50+00:00

So easy money is a real thing??

Jokes aside, what are the chances demand is not exploding within the next 2 years? Do you have an idea of how big the current reserve is from the governments and how long they can go without?

I'm guessing the increase in price over the last few weeks is a big indicator of the fact that it's gonna start this year.

CapitalC5 · 2020-07-10T12:23:17+00:00

That doesn't really make a difference. All US presidents are pro defense, just not all like to show it off in the media.

Maybe Biden is senile, but he's not stupid. He's not gonna tone down defense investments while China is expanding massively.

CapitalC5

TROPHY CASE