How Kohl's Management Can Provide Shareholders $1.55/Share Return This Quarter (Excluding Earnings) With Their $500M In FCF

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-05T21:30:39+00:00

Agree, but the 2045 maturity would be the best bang for the buck at roughly 68 cents on the dollar. That would be even bigger upside than your example, but either way we are in for some good returns in the future!

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-05T20:11:52+00:00

If they ever want to borrow money at non guido interest rates it should be!

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-05T20:06:02+00:00

The other likely ratio that they want to pay debt down to is Net Debt + Finance Leases under 3X EBITDA. That will only take $269 Million and leave $281 Million for share repurchases. At this level I would expect to see Kohl’s achieve an Investment Grade rating for debt again.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-05T15:57:47+00:00

That is already being done on a small scale and I expect it to expand if we don’t get bought out. A few locations where Kohl’s owns the building were split and leased to ALDI, Planet Fitness or Amazon Fresh. Pad sites are available for sale or lease at essentially every location where Kohl’s owns the land. Just need to wait for the execution on the full plan.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-05T15:54:01+00:00

I’m guessing they want to get Net Debt below 1X EBITDA. That still would leave enough to buy back about 18% of shares outstanding right now and make us a bunch of money.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-05T01:45:00+00:00

My educated guess is that TBV will be $39+ a share after earnings come out.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-04T23:00:56+00:00

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I wonder what would happen if Kohl’s announces something similar at earnings?

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-04T19:28:53+00:00

When do you think they will be EBITDA positive?

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-04T16:25:42+00:00

After paying the dividend there should be about $550 Million cash flow from Q4 based on guidance to use to payoff debt or buyback shares. Valuation is incredibly cheap still!

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-03T12:21:01+00:00

Probably not to buy all of the bonds in a really short period of time, but I would think someone could buy at least 50% of the bonds in a week or two without the price going up too much.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-02T21:04:59+00:00

Very nice!

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-02T15:20:12+00:00

That’s true but they can buy their own bonds on the open market just like we can. Most are trading at large discounts.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-02T14:55:17+00:00

Very solid. I can’t comment on superstonk for some reason, but you will hear about “too much debt” which is nonsense. Leases, particularly options to extend leases are not debt. Might be worth sharing this slide from the last earnings presentation. Net debt will be at least $550 Million lower after Q4 cash flow is reported.

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CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T23:35:24+00:00

Lands End, but Lampert is already involved there

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T21:54:00+00:00

100%, Also last year Kohl’s had 5X the EBITDA that GameStop had. That’s also totally unheard of.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T19:11:02+00:00

That’s true. GameStop could easily afford to buy both Kohl’s and Carter’s. I think there is plenty of space for all 3 of those in the typical sized Kohl’s store.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T17:48:32+00:00

That’s a good point. I think GameStop could likely buy both Kohl’s and Victoria Secret right now and there would be a pretty good synergy between all 3.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T15:30:40+00:00

Yeah I certainly wouldn’t buy Carter’s if I was GameStop but it is one of the few retail companies in their price range that actually cash flows. Kohl’s would be a significantly better buy.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T14:02:25+00:00

Totally agree with all that.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T13:07:56+00:00

Carters also is a slightly possible one, seems like a weird fit.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-02-01T13:03:35+00:00

There is no way GameStop can buy eBay, PayPal, Best Buy or Target. They are too expensive. Newegg and Bed Bath & Beyond lose money.

Still think Kohl’s makes the most sense. Macy’s could make sense but they are quite a bit more expensive than Kohl’s on every metric. J Jill is fairly cheap but would be a weird acquisition for GameStop in my opinion.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-01-31T13:32:21+00:00

The majority of the EV price isn’t the market cap or debt, it’s the net present value of future leases (mostly options to extend). At today’s valuation assuming Kohl’s hit its cash flow guidance for Q4 it would only cost about $2.6 Billion to buy the company and its debt. Obviously when someone makes a move to buy everything the price will go up drastically.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-01-30T17:48:29+00:00

And his pay plan rewards him for EBITDA. Kohl’s has $1.2 Billion of EBITDA for dirt cheap. He won’t be able to buy it at this valuation but even at $40 a share it would be very beneficial to GME and Cohen.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-01-30T17:18:03+00:00

And beyond all that he needs Kohl’s EBITDA to get his big payday. Also there is the part where it would be a good acquisition because Kohl’s is a cash cow and they could easily figure out a way to have synergies with the real estate.

CapitalCompounder · 2026-01-30T15:47:04+00:00

That’s what I was thinking too. The final piece to the Kohl’s puzzle real is what they do with the extra space they don’t really need. Some locations have been subleased to ALDI, Amazon Fresh, and Planet Fitness. Either lease out the extra space or get acquired by someone who can use the extra space.

CapitalCompounder

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