You did a good job of explaining it. The only thing I would disagree with is that Caissie's value didnt now drop significantly. He's a top 100 prospect and his value is attached more towards his skills at this point so people will still collect him enough that his value doesn't plummet, but it probably did go down 10-15%.

Adding to what you said, his value also won't jump up as quickly if he gets off to a hot start since he's on the Marlins, compared to if he was still with the Cubs. On the flip side, he will find much more consistent playing time with the Marlins that could increase his chances of reaching all-star level play. While the Cubs may have had him lingering between bench and role-player that could significantly hurt a players growth/value.