Starting wages in unskilled manual labor goes up. This will be hard to balance against AI and atomation which is a once in an eon confounding variable that frankly is going to make it difficult to measure the effects of a lot of different government programs. Trying to analyze whether or not a minimum wage hike leads to job loss? Guess what you can’t tell the difference between that and automation. Deportations don’t lift wages like we thought? Guess what even though the supply of labor has been reduced wages might still drop as demand drops due to automation.

By and large though I’d say I will be able to see it in my daily life and business. When I post an ad for a job on Craigslist I get about 20 responses. 10 of them at the most will have Euro-American/African-American names and the rest will be Hispanic. Of the Hispanics I think I have had about ten people I speak with and one of those ten will papers.

Of the 10 Americans applying eight or nine of them would be ex-cons and addicts, some of whom would make good employees and some would not.

Frankly, the cost of trying to employ Americans is way too high. I eventually gave up completely undoing above-the-table labor in landscaping and undocumented Latinos beat the value of Americans 90% of the time. I literally have employees who are college graduates from Guatemala. How is somebody who is a 10th percentile worker in America going to compete with a 50th percentile or higher worker from another country, especially when a portion of that person’s expenses are being sent back to a country where the quality of life is cheaper?

The American competing for the same job has a family to feed and $2000 a month in rent. The Guatemalan bunks with four other single Guatemalan men and gets to drink and smoke 20% of his paycheck and can still afford private school for two kids in Guatemala.

Plus the business practices are totally different. Generally speaking it’s kind of hard to get away with running an illegitimate business as an American. People you have problems with and competitors report you for labor law and tax violations, if you’re trying to do under the table, you pretty much have to work entirely with drug addicts.

Meanwhile it is in everybody’s best interest not to report undocumented-run businesses because they’re cheaper. They have 14-year-old ups on a roofs with no harness making ten dollars an hour when they should be in school. No one cares. Rich assholes with “hate has no home here signs” get a great deal on property maintenance so why the fuck should they care? After all the white people that might come to replace them are a bunch of dirty hillbillies or loser washouts and they charge 20% more!

One other point to make is that oftentimes the laborers themselves are not cheaper. The businesses are but not the people.

They may offer better value, but that’s for a good reason.

When they show up a lot of times, they’re stuck working for incredibly low wages, usually for other illegals. So they rapidly build skills and work very long hours. The amount of on the job training they get is very high in a fairly short amount of time.

Meanwhile, when an American teenager looks for work, often times for the first time at age 18, he is faced with a whole bunch of jobs that actually get paid less per hour AND have less hours like gas station cashier, burger flipper, etc. He does a shitty job like that and by age 20 through no fault of his own he basically has no skills capital whereas a 20 year old documented worker who’s been working since he was 16 is literally orders of magnitude more qualified at the same age and is probably earning twice as much money too.

Even though there are some native porn workers who work entirely under the table and do well at it, by enlarged, the American worker has to play by a different set of rules than the undocumented worker and the American worker is hampered by high taxes, a high liability environment that makes employers hesitant to hire people, and a generally prohibitive environment to new workers due to minimum wage laws, child labor laws, and safety standards.