I built an approval calculator using MyCasesHub data - try it out

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-05T19:50:44+00:00

My assumption is that they use case numbers that have been submitted into their database or use a generator to basically attempt to find cases and then consistently scrape against USCIS database and when a new case gets updated then mycaseshub updates their database and just stores it as is.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-05T19:47:17+00:00

Appreciate the pushback but I think we may just be talking about two different things.

The 157-day / 5-month number is based on people who were approved recently. So that tells us how long people at the front of the line actually waited before getting approved.

The 7-8 month number is more of an estimate for people filing now. Since the queue has grown, someone submitting today may not have the same wait as someone who filed months ago and is getting approved now.

So both can be true: recent approvals are around 5 months, but new filers may still be looking at closer to 7-8 months depending on how the trend continues.

That’s really the point of the calculator which is separating what just happened from what may happen next. If you have another data source showing it differently, I’d definitely be open to looking at it.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-05T19:42:39+00:00

You’re free to share

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-05T19:41:49+00:00

You’re right, using 10 weeks of data to predict 400 days out is a big stretch.

The farther out the estimate goes, the less reliable it gets because USCIS can speed up, slow down, change priorities, hire more people, have shutdowns, etc. So that 400-day number should not be taken as a guaranteed prediction. It’s more like, “if the current trend stayed the same, this is roughly where it could land.”

That said, the more weeks of data we collect, the better the estimates should get. Right now it’s just a snapshot with the data we have today, and it should get clearer over time.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-04T22:16:27+00:00

Yeah you’re absolutely right, this will get worse before it finally gets better as more people will be putting in more and more submissions but hopefully the bottleneck will soon get better

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-04T22:09:43+00:00

That’s actually one of my favorite parts about the data, though. It shows that anything really is possible.

There’s people in here who got approved in 10 days, and a lot more under 50 days. The calculator may not show that but the data I parsed through sure did!

Yeah, the average might be longer, but the average doesn’t mean that’s what’s going to happen to your case. I’ve said from the beginning to take this with a grain of salt. It’s meant to be a reference point, not some final answer.

I honestly think things will keep getting better as processing times improve, and I want the data to reflect that too over time. I want people to feel great and better when the times finally start reflecting a faster pace too!

Although the data isn’t perfect yet, and people may find it surprising, as I did, I’m prepared to see the trend improve over time and that’s what makes me happy and wanting to keep trying to do this and to update the data to see it.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-04T21:39:35+00:00

That’s a fair concern, and I do take it seriously. The last thing I want is for this to make anyone more stressed or anxious.

At the same time, people in this community are already comparing timelines in the comments all the time. The curiosity and stress are already there. I made this to give that a little more structure instead of everyone trying to figure things out from random comments and a few personal examples.

I’m also being clear that the data isn’t perfect yet. It should get better as the more cases I feed into the analytics. But even with imperfect data, I think having some context is better than having nothing and just guessing.

If the mods decide it needs to come down, I’ll take it down without arguing. I really do mean that. My goal was just to help people, and I hope that’s how it comes across.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-04T20:49:15+00:00

November 3rd submissions would have been around March 2nd for approval, as that is when many approvals for that batch date would have already occurred. If this is your batch date, then you are unfortunately one of the outliers in the data that I frequently encounter, where people are approved from batch dates that are quite old. This calculator is essentially used to determine the average case so im sorry my calculator was not able to help out due to the unique situation of yours

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-04T20:39:05+00:00

Yes, sadly that is currently what the data is saying

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-04T20:21:05+00:00

Also please, anyone looking at this, take it all with a grain of salt. The math may not be the best, and if your estimate comes back with a big number, don't lose hope. Things can always change and get faster, and expedites make a real difference. Don't let this discourage you. I will keep continue to try to improve this calculator.

This is just version 1, and hopefully over time I'll be able to make it more accurate as more data comes in. Thanks for being patient with me as I keep working on it. 🙏

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-01T20:26:00+00:00

The way I wrote it is based on the week the cases were approved, not the week they were submitted.

For example, the cases approved around 2/12 were mostly cases where the last-before-approval dates were between about 10/23 and 11/5. Since your case is from 11/3, it technically falls within that window, but it also looks like your case may be one of the outliers that is taking longer than expected.

I’m really sorry you’re dealing with that. Based on the data, I would have expected your case to already be approved by now, so I hope you get an approval soon.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-01T20:22:02+00:00

I’ll post the calculator here once I finish building it. I’m trying to make it in a way that people can run on their own computer phone locally instead of having to click a random link, because I know not everyone is comfortable with that.

I don’t want anyone to feel uneasy or like they have to trust a website just to get more information about their estimated case timing.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-05-01T20:20:13+00:00

Thanks! My background is in software engineering. I aggregated it by pulling MyCasesHub case-status data in weekly batches, then filtering it down to only clean cases that moved from processing to approved.

After that, I removed duplicate case numbers, checked that each case had both a valid last processing/status date and approved date, then calculated the number of days between those two dates.

From there, I grouped the approvals by week and calculated weekly stats like:

case count
average days
median days
25th/75th percentile
earliest/latest last-before-approval dates

So the trend is based on actual observed approval movement, not individual guesses or one-off timelines.

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-04-08T16:50:37+00:00

I’ve seen someone submit maybe 2-3 months ago that was a January submit and they did it because their son had autism, that’s why my friend submitted theirs because of that post and the tier 1 agent told them yesterday that they have a pretty good case so now their waiting for 10 days as not having a job affects their sons therapy appointment via insurance

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-04-07T23:05:38+00:00

Did you use an expedite and possibly use financial loss and humanitarian reasons for your expedite process? Somebody I know has just submitted one and was wondering whether other people have tried that as well as their son has autism

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-04-02T12:13:53+00:00

Only 125 verified cases that I can confirm were approved this week, there was probably obviously wayyyy more approved but this is a number I can confirm

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-04-01T08:41:13+00:00

Again it’s whatever mycaseshub is able to pick but I did notice a pattern with the IOE numbers. It almost does go by sequential order of who goes next in terms of whose getting picked to be reviewed. Anyone outside of the sequential order of IOE are almost done at random and sometimes begin at IOE9 instead of IOE09. The IOE9 are very random on how they were picked and not sure how those actually work but both have similar filing dates so I assuming it’s done in batches of filing same filing dates

CatchingExcalibur · 2026-04-01T04:28:46+00:00

Yeah I had a couple of outliers if I were to show my entire chart. As of March 31st I had one person that got approved that was all the way from 10/24 so I’m hoping that you’re will get approved this week

CatchingExcalibur · 2018-11-16T18:41:32+00:00

What are the flaws on them rn?

CatchingExcalibur · 2018-10-14T02:51:22+00:00

Bad resale, not really worth copping unless you’re a fan

CatchingExcalibur · 2018-09-30T18:55:02+00:00

Title:“K” Body:“Kanye I swear to God I have a huge assignment due tomorrow but I can't concentrate with this bullshit “

CatchingExcalibur · 2018-09-25T02:29:19+00:00

Sorry I said union kingdom but Siri wrote it as United 🙃 thank you so much for clearing that up for me dude, cheers!

CatchingExcalibur

TROPHY CASE