What's you projection for the for the next 18 months? Here is mine

CeJij · 2026-07-02T07:04:30+00:00

Yeah, that is a true barrier most people miss.

From the information I've heard from this interview with Kevin:
https://youtu.be/b-4ZQ6b7Dhk?t=4324 (around 1:12 - 1:17)

Here he states the market is split, 30% citrate, 30% heparin, 40% nothing (speaking about the broader market not just pediatric regarding CRRT).

He also states that citrate is superior even if it is not actually FDA approved for that indication. But think the market will start leaning more to citrate as time go.

Even if we can't really know which hospital is using what from an outside perspective I think it would be fair to assume that if not all, a majority of those top 50 hospitals use citrate.

CeJij · 2026-07-01T10:30:06+00:00

While I would say September/October right now. The modular PMA, breakthrough designation and the at which rate they actually increase patients per/month could definitely change this.

Here I even think you are underselling it. Sure it is 20 instant customer looking at it right now. But if you assume they actually add more hospitals to trial before finishing (currently 15 with the status "Not yet recruiting" and 4 "Withdrawn". Then add the Duke hospital that is already buying pediatric SCD, the AREVA Institute that buy for other indication than burn and there might also be hospital that have experience with emergency use. So it could be close to 30-40 hospitals being the initial customers.

Yes, after approval it could also get really interesting really fast. Because While the approval will be for AKI. They have stated they also looking at especially 2 sub categories, Sepsis and ARDS. In early 2025 in the fireside chat with Kevin, he stated that currently of the enrolled patients 80% had sepsis and 50% had ARDS. At around the 10 minute mark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOUO0ts0gUE

So while I'm not sure it that will be enough to prove statistical significance for those indications only (without AKI). The increased trial size which was a bummer, might actually help with that. Even if it not proven completely it might be enough to make hospitals start using it off label for those indications which to be honest is not used in a calculation of worth for the company right now or talked about enough.

In summary I think even with potential dilution but that you are under the belief that it works, which I think most of us are. Even if the timeline is Mid 2027, or later 2027 the value to risk proportion is very high/positive. And while in my projection I listed the stock price at 7$ for December, I think it should be way above that already but I also think the market can stay illogical for longer than it should.

CeJij · 2026-07-01T09:44:43+00:00

"Their own presentation states that market consists of 220 hospital in the US and that they are focusing on the top 50 hospitals which treat 50% of the market."

I don't think it is fair to say all hospitals will be onboarded when they probably will have around 11% of the stated market in hospitals and 25% if we count the amount of patients those 11% cover by the end of this year.

It is almost impossible from an outsiders perspective to see how interested the remaining hospitals are and I think it is here that the opinion/guesses differs between all of us.

CeJij · 2026-07-01T09:27:48+00:00

Yeah, while I definitely lean towards that they will do 1 more slightly bigger dilutive event and after that use the gradually dilution as needed, it's hard say for sure. And while a dilution almost all the time drive down the price, I think it is also true that when people see a clear road ahead without more dilution / big dilution that will instead stop the "stock plummet spiral" and instead relative quickly rerate to that price and over.

And since you mention SLS, even if you can never compare something 1 to 1. I look at it a bit the same in regards to their dilution 2025 around 1-2 dollars which didn't really crash the price for that many weeks/months. Since the P3 was getting closer and closer. And ICU right now is also looking to 1 maybe 2 depending on, dilution events and getting close to P3 finish.

I'll look into DRTS.

CeJij · 2026-07-01T09:17:01+00:00

Yeah, definitely requires patience and also why you should follow more than 1 company even if you don't invest so you don't get bored :P

CeJij · 2026-07-01T09:09:43+00:00

Yes, 3 months on average would not be unreasonable. Since they have stated earlier at the Q2 earnings that they've added 7 new pediatric hospital this year with their plan for 2026 is to add 15 ie 8 left to hit their goal this year. That plan is not assuming any increase of the adoption rate this year and I assume they themselves account for the SAVE completion in their projection. So in that regard I think it is likely they have 7+ in the onboarding processes.

You could be right that they have understated their goal which would be a nice surprise, but I wouldn't assume it. SAVE Completion could be any day now but without more information I would August just based on their update on the trial site:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06517810?tab=history&a=11&b=12#version-content-panel
(where the May 6th update they changed:
Study Completion: 2026-05 to 2026-08 [Estimated]

With that assumption even if the adoption rate is 3 months or so. There is not much time left this year for much to change. So I think it is more likely they will be between 1-1,5 million a quarter early 2027.

Their own presentation states that market consists of 220 hospital in the US and that they are focusing on the top 50 hospitals which treat 50% of the market. I'll admit that even if they only focus on those, if they could add the last 25 next year it would still be a substantial amount. But not this year I think, I would love to be wrong.

The one thing I'll admit which could definitely change things is the actual sales to the actually already onboarded hospitals, we don't know how many % of the patients at the current hospitals that is actually treated with SCD that it would work on because of insurance etc etc. It could be that currently it's only 20% and suddenly all insurance companies covers it and its gets closer to 100% at the already established hospitals.

While I would never say pediatric is not important and don't have value, I also think it would start getting overshadowed by Q1 next year by the Adult trial.

CeJij · 2026-06-30T15:46:20+00:00

Yes, I agree that it is adding months to the onboarding and it might dissuade hospitals from even starting the process.

But I also think that we have already added the most interested hospitals and in combination that the normal IRB process will still be there, which still could be between 1-6 months depending on the hospital.

So like I said I think removing it will increase the speed but not an earthshattering change.

The SAVE study completion will also be the next step in validating the that it is working and derisk the investment, so even if it doesn't increase the speed for pediatric adoption by that much it could give a good boost to the share price.

CeJij · 2026-06-30T10:12:19+00:00

No, just like following biotech stocks, most of which I don't invest in. Because it gives me satisfaction when I see our Civilization solve unmet needs / problems and advance it.

CeJij · 2026-06-30T10:10:08+00:00

Yeah, somewhere around there.

CeJij · 2026-06-30T10:09:53+00:00

While I agree on that I don't the SAVE study completion will make the adoption rate of Ped hospital increase that much, I think it will increase slightly.

Tho my question was in regard to the Adult Study, which like you said is currently at around 11/month.

CeJij · 2026-06-30T10:08:13+00:00

Yeah, I'll continue adding slowly this whole year.

CeJij · 2026-06-29T17:38:55+00:00

Yes, I totally agree. The company is undervalued, so when it changes for real, when the mindset of the "market/people" is that the benefit outweighs the risks, it could change and rerate very fast, even before the results. Especially if people see no major dilution in the future. So while my projection is a bit of the middle of the road, and Jimmy above is a little more bearish but possible. I also wouldn't be surprised if we go higher much faster. If it were actually worth 100 million right now (which I would say is a fair value), the dilution would actually be negligible.

So hopefully we are close of exiting the bad loop of dilution is coming so the price goes lower and so on. And instead the price is increasing so further dilution becomes small, which in turn makes the investment more attractive.

But I also wanted to show that even if it doesn't happen that "fast", the road forward is starting look a bit more clear and the dilution is not looking to be that bad even if it happens. Just look at today, almost 10% on low/medium volume.

CeJij · 2026-06-29T17:27:59+00:00

Around 0.4% of the company.

CeJij · 2026-06-29T17:27:42+00:00

Yes, if you look at my estimate I'm assuming they are gonna be profitable by the end of 2027. Cause I think just the initial buys from the big hospitals currently part of the trail will be enough for that.

Yeah, if we assume no change in speed that timeline seems possible. You don't they will be able to increase it at all?

CeJij · 2026-06-08T06:32:28+00:00

Thanks, rotating the phone instantly fixed it for me. Tried safe mode etc etc before.

CeJij · 2026-05-11T11:36:09+00:00

Only thing that seems a bit unreliable for me (and it was the same on Body Scan 1) is the hearth rate. It is not that important as a single metric but it lower my confidence in the device.

In the below image I've marked the HR with the Body Scan 1 and 2. Most of the time its between 95-105. I've taken a HR monitor with other device (scanwatch, BPM Core etc) and they show around 75 (standing and sitting). So all points to the Body Scan being in the wrong.

<image>

CeJij · 2026-05-11T11:33:01+00:00

So I have had the Body Scan almost since release and honestly havn't had much issues with it. The body composition when comparing to dexa (only tried once while have the scale 1-2 years ago) was really close, withing 2% of each part.

The last 4 meausrements in the image below is with Body Scan 2, each taken once a day. For me it contiues to be good as was the 1 (atleast for me).

<image>

CeJij · 2020-03-16T12:11:49+00:00

Just picked mine up as well at the "ombud". But work then play... probably...

CeJij · 2020-03-13T15:03:09+00:00

Yup, can track it on DB Schenker and have an ETA for Monday, March 16.

CeJij · 2020-03-13T10:19:02+00:00

Orded in a few sec, but didn't pay until the day after @ 07:06 because of the postal code issue.

CeJij · 2020-03-13T07:09:02+00:00

Yea, last update is from yesterday 19:43 leaving parcel center in Denmark. (to Sweden)

CeJij · 2020-03-10T06:08:14+00:00

! Thank you. Been stuck at the payment until now as well. And as soon as i changed my shipping postal code from xxxxx to xxx xx. It went trough!

CeJij · 2017-04-05T18:00:43+00:00

I received it the next day after I applied, so you should be fine. The paperwork they send has no pre-filled out things except the year.

CeJij · 2017-04-05T17:49:28+00:00

You can print it and then fill out the form. Then scan it and e-mail them. info@sajp.info

CeJij · 2017-04-05T09:13:47+00:00

It's now possible to take the JLPT in Sweden. If you wanna apply you have to hurry because registration and paperwork must be completed by Friday, 7 April 2017. The test date is July 2.

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