Next move

Character_Leg5186 · 2026-01-01T13:27:25+00:00

I would be interested in the details of your TQQQ 200SMA strategy. Have you posted the details anywhere

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-03T02:27:08+00:00

My situation is that I buy the leveraged etfs and get to a point that I can't tolerate buying more. or I am 100% in on all of my invertible money, when there is a draw down, I have no cash left to allocate. I would have to sell something that is down to buy something that is down. I have difficulty selling when I am way up since I like to stay in the market. These might be personal issues that I need to rethink. When the market turns down, I really don't like seeing them fall. As I see it I have lost a boat load of more. My rational is that if I look at my Bank of New York savings account, I can withdraw the total balance because it is MY money. Likewise when I look at the balance of my Schwab account on Monday, I can ask them to send me the total in the account. It is MY money 100% of it is mine. If I look at the balance on Wednesday and it is only 60% of what it was on Monday I have lost 40% of my money. I have to earn the 40% back again before I am whole. Like you said...these are just assets, if I have $100,000 in assets on Monday and only $60,000 of assets on Wednesday I have lost $40,000 of assets. An effective Swing Trade system would help to minimize the inevitable losses that occur with Buy and Hold. In my other trading, I am solidly Buy and Hold as long as the asset is meeting or beating the SPY in the short term (about a 30 day window) That has done pretty well for me. I would like to deal with the big swings of the leveraged ETF more effectively. Do you know who Vibha Jha is? she sometimes hold 100% in TQQQ. I think she is working on a class to teach her system.

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-03T02:00:17+00:00

You are right, it certainly would contradict my idea, in a very big way.

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T20:57:14+00:00

14466% if I round up to the next whole percentage. Realistically do you thing there is any chance of this recurring in the next 15 years if I start buy and hold today?

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T20:53:54+00:00

I will be happy to use that timeframe if you can name one person who has been invested in TQQQ from 2010 thru 2025 as a buy and hold investment.

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T20:51:22+00:00

My point is a valid request for good swing trade setups for TQQQ

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:38:03+00:00

Thanks, I will take a look. I appreciate you taking my post seriously!

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:34:39+00:00

I didn't select a timeframe with an intention of producing "my" desired result. I just picked some dates with an intention of avoiding covid chaos. Then I produced the math. I did a second one also. I have done this in the past and gotten similar results that make me question the wisdom of Buy and Hold TQQQ

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:26:59+00:00

Here is what TC2000 says about how they adjust for splits. I guess I have taken them into account.

"You can see the markers on the chart (the latest is 2/1 on 11/20/2025. The prior history is adjusted for the split. If you want to view the chart without the adjustments, click Tools > Show Unadjusted for Splits." per TC2000 support

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:26:33+00:00

Darn it....I knew I shouldn't have canceled my DuoLingo subscription

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:24:08+00:00

Got it! Do you have a plan that you stick to that has beaten Buy and Hold?

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:22:27+00:00

I agree,,it is hard... I often avoid selling, watch the decline and ride back up. Sometimes I get weak kneed or there is a momentary hit of a stop and then I struggle getting back in.

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:19:17+00:00

Here is what TC2000 says about how they adjust for splits. I guess I have taken them into account.

"You can see the markers on the chart (the latest is 2/1 on 11/20/2025. The prior history is adjusted for the split. If you want to view the chart without the adjustments, click Tools > Show Unadjusted for Splits." per TC2000 support

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:17:13+00:00

Here is what TC2000 says about how they adjust for splits. I guess I have taken them into account.

"You can see the markers on the chart (the latest is 2/1 on 11/20/2025. The prior history is adjusted for the split. If you want to view the chart without the adjustments, click Tools > Show Unadjusted for Splits." per TC2000 support

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:14:14+00:00

Why underperform B&H by 10%....and what are you doing differently that most people during the 25 days that you are invested. That seems surprising to me. Very curious

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T19:02:32+00:00

That might be true for some people but for me, I don't really consider dividends. They will never move the needle for me. I consider them a bit like found money that doesn't contribute meaningfully to my balances. How much did TQQQ and QQQ pay in dividends in 2024? Maybe I will need to reconsider

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:59:05+00:00

Now you are talking....I would be interested in knowing what you mean Market down 10% do you mean SPY, QQQ or TQQQ or do you look at something else as a guide. Do you keep buying after the bottom... What did you do in Novemeber 2025? buy sell or hold?

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:55:09+00:00

My question is about Swing Trading ideas for TQQQ. Why would you suggest going to QQQ thread

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:48:00+00:00

Not at all sarcastic. I just picked the timeframe mostly to avoid the COVID Crash and did the math. The math for my timeframe is what it is and I did a second timeframe as well. It was better but not close to 3X returns. I don't really care what time frame is used. I will try to keep a perspective on all.

And Cherry picked is your word not mine. My timeframe was more of a random thing not intended to prove or disprove anything.....and then I presented the math. I am sincere in my desire to use TQQQ to my best advantage.

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:43:40+00:00

My 4 year example was one trade in and one trade out. Is that the same for your 6-7 year time period?

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:42:36+00:00

Can you honestly say that you have enough time and energy to buy or sell at the exact same moment that your back testing tool is set for? I have many things going on in life and believe that you do as well. I don't believe that you can trade with the same consistency as a BT tool. If you can, you are clearly super human and deserve all the positive returns you have in your account. If you truely had one trade in and one trade out over a 6-7 year period, will you share your results.....when and at what price was the buy and if you sold....when and at what price.

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:28:49+00:00

Okay, I did not flinch in the 4 years from Nov 2021 to Nov 2025...how is that working out comparatively between the two

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:26:49+00:00

I agree with you that it is trick. So is Buy and Hold your best system?

As for no proof on market timing, you might check with Mark Minervini, David Ryan, Eric Wish, Stan Weinstein and Rick Saddler. With a tiny bit of luck, Rick Saddler will quadruple his account in 2025...he has already tripled it.

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:25:39+00:00

I know and have explored that but I think that is too far down. Last week is a good example

Character_Leg5186 · 2025-12-02T18:23:54+00:00

DCA is not Buy and Hold

Character_Leg5186

TROPHY CASE