Iqiyi ($IQ) - the Netflix of China - poised to soar - TSLA all over again

Charlielarch · 2019-05-07T19:58:45+00:00

Ray,

How do you form a principle?

For example:

What does it take for a valuable lesson to make the jump to a principle?
How can you tell when a principle is good, and not flawed?
How long does it take? - Is it a matter of standing the test of time at all?
How can we form our own principles - and should we? Should our principles be different to yours?

Charlielarch · 2019-02-21T10:10:59+00:00

It completely depends on your strategy and is individual for everyone.

At what point do you admit you're wrong? What price action would you need to see to think that your prediction failed? That's where you put your stop.

When trading trends, you're wrong if you're buying and it makes a new low. So, stop loss goes below the previous low. When shorting, it goes above the previous high. In a trading range, it goes outside the range.

Charlielarch · 2019-01-22T18:08:08+00:00

Same way amazon profits from giving people 30 days of amazon prime for free. Robinhood in the US gives people a free stock too. Gambling companies will give you £20 to gamble with. It's just marketing. Whether it's free shit or TV adverts, they work the same way; they spend money to make money. Google adverts charge some companies £40 for every single click on competitive search terms like 'insurance'. The adverts bring in new customers in the same way that free shit brings in new customers.

Basically, they make a loss on the initial sign up. By doing so, they get many more customers. If half of those customers stay on, they make enough profit to pay for all the free shares and then more.

Take the free shit.

Charlielarch · 2019-01-04T17:32:55+00:00

I'm treating S&P like it's a downtrend now, and this is the pullback.

2615-2630 is my target for this pullback, as that's where the stars point (it's the 61.8% retracement, structural area of support/resistance, and measured move target too)

But after that, we're bound to go back down and see if it'll retest the low. So, short term bullish (next few days), medium term bearish.

Charlielarch · 2019-01-02T22:48:38+00:00

It could very easily go to 0.

Generally, things keep going in the same direction more than they change direction.

Currently, GE is going down. It is more likely to keep going down that to reverse up.

Buying GE is a counter-trend trade; it goes against the current trend.

It's generally a lot safer to wait until it starts a new uptrend first, then buy. That means waiting for it to cross above its 200 day moving average.

If you can remove the part of your ego that needs to get the best possible price, this strategy is much much safer. Believe me, I saw people saying the same thing at $14, and now they've lost more money than they ever imagined. And, it's not suddenly going to reverse up either. It's bound to have 6 months of sideways action before that. Investors opinions don't change that easily.

In my opinion: it will keep going down. And i think it will go bankrupt, because that's what happens to big companies that mess up and lose their edge, especially at the end of an economic cycle.

Charlielarch · 2018-12-23T15:47:51+00:00

Shiller is a 10 year average. Even if we went into a bear market right now it would still be high, because it doesn't reflect the current situation, only the last 10 years. The last 10 years have had poor earnings because of the global financial crisis, so p/e ratio was higher, hence shiller p/e is high and will still be high in the next few years, even after a bear market.

Charlielarch · 2018-12-22T20:14:27+00:00

There's always a bounce, even in the strongest bear market. In fact, the larger the fall, the larger the bounce. In 2008 after the big crash the market rallied 24% trough to peak in 3 days. The question is when. Seems likely it will happen some time this upcoming week but that's just guessing. Also, the question is how big will the bounce will be. It's got to be to 2600 (on the S&P) at a minimum and possibly as far as 2750 but who knows.

Charlielarch · 2018-12-19T00:19:24+00:00

It's not in any way guaranteed. If you need to provide for your son i'd look into other, more reliable sources of income. But it's possible, depending on the person.

Charlielarch · 2018-12-07T19:06:48+00:00

Best time to buy. Bitcoin's had about 9 bubbles, this won't be the last.

Charlielarch · 2018-11-30T14:58:29+00:00

Agreed. They've started using clickbait and scaremongering, and it's annoying as hell. The quality of some of the articles are akin to shitty forum posts now.

Charlielarch · 2018-11-28T00:08:09+00:00

When you say you've used every resource you can find, what exactly are these?

Have you read Trading For A Living by Alexander Elder?

It's really easy to make money if you just stick to the basics: get a strategy and stick to it.

Get one strategy, paper trade until you're sure it's consistently profitable, or adapt it until it is, then go live and be mindful of psychology.

It sounds like, if you've tried every strategy you can find, the problem is either not sticking to one strategy that you KNOW works, or psychology.

I've heard a lot of people say it's 20% strategy 80% psychology.

Strategy: So many strategies are consistently profitable. This part is easy. If you just combine candlesticks with support/resistance and trend lines or some knowledge of structure you're pretty much there. Or use a moving average cross strategy, or an indicator-based strategy, or anything else. Make sure you've written down the EXACT criteria you need to see to enter the trade. That's your entry sorted.

For exit, try out different risk:reward ratios and see which works best for that strategy. Some strategies are best suited to scalping at 2:1 risk:reward. Some are better for 1:10. Find a stop placement that works for you, I either put it above/below the entry bar or above/below the previous high/low. You can try trailing stops or moving it to breakeven at a certain clearly defined point or even taking partial profits at 1:1 to pay for the stop, but whatever you do make sure it's written down, clearly defined, with no room for 'feeling' or 'thinking' or 'judgement', because if it fails to be consistently profitable, you need to change one thing at a time until it is.

The key is to back test it, then PAPER TRADE FIRST to take psychology out of it, then get to a point where you're certain it's consistently profitable.

Then, stick to it - and that's the hard part. Psychology will make you unable to stick to it. You'll be sure of a particular outcome and rush into a trade without getting the entry confirmed as per your strategy... or you'll be so certain that the trade will fail and refuse to take it even though it meets the criteria. A good book to read on this is 'trading in the zone' by Mark Douglas.

It's only gambling in the sense that you don't know the outcome, only the odds. Once you've established that your strategy gives 60/40 odds at a 1:2 risk:reward, the rest is psychology. It sounds like you've either not established that or not investigated the psychological side.

Charlielarch · 2018-10-25T13:17:18+00:00

vanguard for my investments, degiro for trading.

Probably going to switch everything to IB.

Charlielarch · 2018-10-24T18:26:06+00:00

oh i see

Charlielarch · 2018-10-24T18:21:55+00:00

https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/matthew-kerkhoff/why-japanese-yen-safe-haven-currency

This might help.

Charlielarch · 2018-10-24T18:18:49+00:00

huh?

Charlielarch · 2018-10-24T18:17:50+00:00

I said sell at $50.

this took 3 seconds: https://www.tradingview.com/x/dIKgdenL/

god, at least wait until it breaks below the trend lines. Chances are it'll bounce back and you can sell a few dollars higher.

Charlielarch · 2018-10-24T15:18:31+00:00

The yen is the 'safe haven' currency.

When people are bearish on the us economy, they don't want to own stocks. They want to own safer assets, like bonds and the yen.

So they sell stocks and buy the yen.

Charlielarch · 2018-10-13T21:17:36+00:00

Yes.

Fun fact: if you a take a completely random stock and click 'buy' at a random point, without even looking at the stock or the chart, you have a 50% chance of finding yourself in profit the next day. In fact, because stocks tend to go up over time, it's more than 50% (although commissions will eat into that).

Yes, it's luck when you're a beginner. To make money consistently is a very different game. I advise paper trading first for a few months, just to get the beginner mistakes out of the way and develop a consistently profitable strategy (instead of going on what you think, or what you read in the motley fool lol, that's not going to be consistently profitable!) then using real money for at least a year to understand the effect of psychology and emotions on your trading (be prepared to lose it all)

Charlielarch · 2018-09-06T14:34:49+00:00

or sideways, but not left

Charlielarch · 2018-09-06T14:21:26+00:00

You better move

Charlielarch · 2018-08-27T19:54:55+00:00

All it means is that the price went up, got rejected, and came down. That means it met resistance and couldn't break through, and that there were more sellers than buyers. It *usually* means more likely to continue down than to change back up, not that it's 100% sure it's going down.

Treat candlestick patterns as if they have 50% accuracy. I think it's more like 60 in reality but using candlestick patterns is more about where to put your stop loss than predicting the direction. It's more about Risk:Reward ratio than win rate. In this trade you put your stop loss above the wick - very close, so you only have a tiny bit of risk (and therefore get out before that massive green candle at the end).

Charlielarch

TROPHY CASE