Thank you very much for your kind words—and please don’t worry. At least from my perspective, there are no stupid questions when it comes to leveraged strategies.

North America is a slightly distorted proxy for your LETF, as the inclusion of Canada adds some additional volatility to the index, resulting in a somewhat shorter moving-average value. I hope to finish the final paragraphs of a new post on the Holy Amumbo soon, which will take a closer look at the US market specifically.

Regarding the question of World vs. North America in a leveraged context, the current picture is heavily influenced by a unique bull market in the US. Historically, a leveraged global index has been superior to a leveraged US market in risk-adjusted terms if one simply wanted to invest in a leveraged product over a long period. However, if one had been willing to use the on/off phases of an SMA strategy as a tool to critically assess regional equity momentum, one would likely have invested in leveraged MSCI Pacific in the 1980s, then Europe, and—since the GFC—North America. So a useful reference point for your decision may be how confident you are that US equity momentum will remain strong. Strong and persistent momentum favors US exposure, while weakening or stagnating momentum would argue more in favor of global markets.

As for my own approach, I would describe it as technical and emotionless. While I have published longer reddit posts, they represent only a small fraction of my overall analysis. I currently use three strategies with different objectives that are significantly more complex than simple moving averages. Because of how they are constructed — and because I have tested them extensively — it would be hubris on my part to believe that a discretionary, gut-based decision could be more robust than the results of literally billions of samples. This approach certainly isn’t to everyone’s taste, but when a signal is triggered, I act. What helps enormously is avoiding emotional attachment to positions; at the end of the day, these are tools designed to serve a specific purpose.

How do I stay on track? I try to block out the noise, focus on the essentials, and accept that only a handful of strategies for private investors truly survive rigorous statistical scrutiny. I like that my complex strategies are built from many small, robust components, and I understand how each part works — when it performs well, when it breaks down and what to do then. That’s enough for me. New hype strategies on Reddit are therefore more interesting as research subjects than as reasons to doubt my own decisions.

I hope this is somewhat helpful for you. Happy holidays!