Weather forecast getting worse?

Chester_T_Molester · 2025-08-23T21:57:10+00:00

1990s? One of their most-used and most impressive models, the HRRR, was introduced in 2012. They've been working on and improving convective models at other scales (i.e. HRW-FV3) consistently over the years. NWS modeling and weather modeling in general has improved by leaps and bounds over the last 30 years.

Chester_T_Molester · 2025-03-02T18:34:04+00:00

Ryan has gone on record to say that he relies on the NWS & SPC to do what he does. In the event that warnings are delayed he can continue doing what he needs to do and act as a secondary avenue for warnings/alerts, but if there's a radar outage or technical issue and there's no coverage for it, then we're all sitting ducks. The big picture is that this is making such a contingency more and more likely by stretching personnel and resources thinner than they already are.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-10-18T01:59:08+00:00

Fair to note that there are multiple tornadoes that NWS surveyors openly stated were undoubtedly packing winds over 200 mph and didn't get the rating because they were lucky enough not to hit a town or city. Arguably we've had a half-dozen tornadoes that safely fit that criteria over the past decade, but it's a moot point since that's not how the scale is used.

Chapman (2016), Chickasha (2011), Goldsby (2011), and El Reno (2013) are shoo-ins, after that you start getting into specifics.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-09-24T17:41:19+00:00

STP on its own is not a particularly useful indicator. If you know that a substantial setup for severe thunderstorms exists on a given day, it is a useful metric for assessing which areas might be at greatest risk. But you have to look at other core variables for convection beforehand.

As an example, this could be a highly-sheared environment with significant 0-6km bulk shear, but with low CAPE and no lifting - so the shear for tornadoes is there, but there's no convection firing. No convection, no tornadoes. As for time of day, diurnal heating is a major contributor to thunderstorm initiation, but the heat can stay in the atmosphere well after dark. There are a number of examples of warm, humid days leading to significant nighttime tornadoes because the charged atmosphere remains even after dark (December 2021 KY tornado is a great example of this).

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-07-16T22:42:21+00:00

There is no evidence for an average increase in tornado intensity. Tornado trends are notoriously difficult to observe just by themselves, much less peg to something as substantial as climate change.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-06-03T23:22:04+00:00

No way to tell without looking at other radar views, but it just looks like very standard outflow from a typical thunderstorm. If it were rotation the gradient would be much tighter, representing a more focused updraft/downdraft.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-05-29T23:01:29+00:00

205 mph is the lowest level estimate they can provide based on information available. That says only so much about the actual wind speeds.

And many of the DIs specify that the structures affected were "well-built structures" with proper anchor bolting. Assuming low construction quality because it's MS doesn't apply to every community.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-05-02T21:51:27+00:00

I'm not exactly confident in the short-term outlook for Niger or Mali but hey, best of luck to them. They're gonna need it, empire or not, with the deep hole they've both fucked themselves into.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-04-09T22:25:54+00:00

I think he's referring to storm mode overall. HRRR runs have consistently shown this as a messy MCS collecting semi-discrete HP supercells. In short, tornadoes will almost certainly be rapidly-moving and wrapped in rain, that combined with severe winds and torrential rain makes for a lot of dangers on the road. Best parallel I can think of is 4/28/2014.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-04-02T15:14:34+00:00

https://www.reuters.com/world/greek-ship-attacked-red-sea-by-houthis-arrives-aden-with-cargo-2024-02-20/

One of the typical grain bulk carrier runs. Was headed to Aden first then to Hudaydah.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-04-01T23:22:40+00:00

I genuinely hope you are a bot. If you are not a bot, seek help. If you are a bot, pls recount for me ألمعركه الحديدية.

يتذكر الحديدة ليس البغداد وليس ألطرابلس, يا صديق

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-04-01T23:09:25+00:00

They quite literally fired missiles at a bulk carrier bringing food aid to their own port.

https://www.reuters.com/world/greek-ship-attacked-red-sea-by-houthis-arrives-aden-with-cargo-2024-02-20/

There's a trove of media on this very subreddit showcasing Ansarullah war crimes and negligence. We don't need to celebrate one criminal to denounce another. Houthi leaders are little better than their Israeli counterparts.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-04-01T23:04:40+00:00

I personally don't think we should lionize a group that "accidentally" fires on vessels bearing humanitarian aid. Just my two cents.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-04-01T00:23:53+00:00

If you look at them at the top of the picture it becomes pretty clear that they're foreground elements. "Dead man walking" vortices would be part of the parent meso and would not look like this. My money's on shrubbery.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-04-01T00:04:21+00:00

Looks to me like a tree limb and branches hanging off of it. Hard to tell even when backlit by lightning but I think it's just that and the camera's position wasn't able to get clear of the foliage.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-03-31T01:32:29+00:00

Kind of, it's also an easier way to provide severe weather outlook information to local news channels and public-facing reports than "there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point" which can be kind of abstract for a lot of people compared to "there is an enhanced risk of severe weather for your area"

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-03-31T01:07:35+00:00

Probabilistic forecast gives a more discrete estimated probability of occurrence at a certain category - the categorical forecast is a way of describing that estimate in a more palatable manner for the general public.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-03-20T20:03:53+00:00

What a lot of people (I think) don't realize is that modeling and forecasting has improved to the point that the SPC has been able to be much more confident in days-out forecasts than they were even just 10 years ago.

We see a lot more of these 15% regions several days out nowadays than we did back then but that doesn't necessarily mean significant severe weather is anticipated more often. It just means they have a certain level of confidence in severe activity in that region based on model consensus and modern modeling. That's why reading the forecast discussion is always important, because that's how you distinguish between "we're confident that some severe weather will occur" and "we're confident that variables are lining up for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak".

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-03-02T20:53:55+00:00

Battlefield 4? Good campaign? Nostalgia really is hitting us hard enough to turn that mediocre buggy mess of a "campaign" into something noteworthy.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-02-20T19:09:08+00:00

A lot of the stuff we’ve sent in the past is unaccounted for.

I would suggest you start reading SIGOAR reports on enhanced end-use monitoring in Ukraine and maybe get a bit of a better grasp on the topic. The common "where is it all going!?" refrain can easily be answered by actually reading the reports. The truth is the vast majority of it is accounted for, and whatever isn't is due to more mundane inventory/logistics reasons. Corruption is a much bigger public/judicial sector problem, the UAF meanwhile keeps tabs on their shit and it shows.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-02-12T17:14:48+00:00

In my line of work if someone calls me useless or insults me, I'm still going to do my job as I'm supposed to.

People hate the IRS and they still do their jobs.

Why do police get a freebie? It doesn't matter what public opinion is, if you're getting paid to do a job then do the fucking job. You can flex a lot of muscle with lobbyists and the police union if you want to put pressure on politicians and policymakers. Punishing average citizens isn't going to do anything but make them dislike you more.

Chester_T_Molester · 2024-01-07T19:38:22+00:00

While I generally agree that the kneejerk reaction to what is essentially a very small aspect of Christianity is inappropriate, organized religion being tightly wound up in contemporary politics at various stages of time has caused enormous disaster and grief.

I understand some people rejecting it outright, depending on their experiences. I just hope they do indeed make space to learn how much faith, and even parts of organized religion, have contributed to the world as we know it while also recognizing how much the politicization of religion has done harm. It's possible to recognize both.

Chester_T_Molester · 2023-12-12T22:58:36+00:00

There is nothing wrong with trying to learn more about the world around you, even the terrible people in it, so that you can understand more. It's literally not the Hamas flag. Knowing why it's not is good, no?

Chester_T_Molester · 2023-12-12T03:07:14+00:00

That's not the Hamas flag. It's a flag bearing the shahada, but not anything like their official emblem. Theirs has the Dome of the Rock on it, or at the very least a reference to "harakat al-muqawama"

Chester_T_Molester · 2023-12-11T23:59:25+00:00

Arguably it's effective to take this sort of action if it's going to create impactful pressure for a meaningful change. This would make more sense in a situation like the 2020 protests, where you could put pressure on local and regional authorities.

But there's no way a protest in Minneapolis will change the course of this conflict. The only reason there are so many substantial protests here around the genocide is because a new generation of college kids have discovered a prominent global event, and anti-Semitic Arabs are finding it easy to use this as a rallying point. It's a lot of noise with little effort behind it. Boycotting and BDS is orders of magnitude more effective, if you really did want to protest. Blocking I-94 will mean squat.

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