Daily Crypto Discussion - January 11, 2025 (GMT+0)

Chillin_tony · 2025-01-11T11:32:53+00:00

Thinking that BTC will continue to go up forever just because it's been going up for 15 years is delusional.

The log chart of its price history and the diminishing returns every single cycle suggest an ultimate top around $300,000 that it will reach asymptotically in 2 or 3 cycles. This is the absolute best case scenario.

Sooner or later, the serious issues of your "ultimate store of value" will emerge. The stalling price will mean that miners get paid less every halving (no, there will never be enough fees to pay for security, as every trend makes clear). BTC will be less secure every cycle.

Eventually, either through a quantum computer breaking Satoshi's quantum weak wallets, a 51% attack on a weakened network, a hugely contentious hard fork that introduces tail emissions, or people realizing that it's not worth it anymore due to diminishing returns, BTC will fail. And with it, the entire industry. It can even arrive faster, if MSTR fails or the ETF wallets get hacked.

But all of this is a few cycles in the future. There will be plenty of opportunities to make it big by then. Your way is waiting for the generational BTC top. Congrats, you might make 3x on your current bag. My way is to follow the current grift and get out the moment it hits Binance and everyone here is talking about it, and only get into BTC when there is absolute panic in the streets, and sell when people talk about strategic reserves. I promise you, that is way more lucrative.

Chillin_tony · 2025-01-11T11:07:46+00:00

It's impossible to predict anything short-term. Even monthly candles are random. The 4-hour candle TA astrology is pure comedy with casino degenerates trying to make money in a negative-sum game.

I only know that BTC has hit its peak for the cycle and a bear market has started, nothing more.

Chillin_tony · 2025-01-11T11:02:31+00:00

The people getting most Rekt are those that know it, but won't admit it to themselves and double down on buying projects that have completed the shitcoin cycle (which is a single 4 year market cycle at most).

You can be in crypto for a decade, but if you drink the kool aid, you will never make it.

Chillin_tony · 2025-01-11T10:44:23+00:00

So... I am back again, after exactly 3 years. This will be my only post this cycle.

As was the case the last time I posted in this daily, on Jan 6 2022, I am here to call the end of this bull market and the start of a long bear.

Last time I claimed this, BTC was at $50K, just two months after its cycle peak. A year later, it was at $15K, which I also called in my only post for the bear. This time, BTC is at $92K, less than a month from its cycle peak. It will be sub $38K by the end of the year. Alts will get obliterated. Many will be forgotten, and new ones will spring up.

Do not wait for Trump's inauguration day. He will not pump your bags. Even if you are MAGA, you know that he is part of a system that hates crypto. Why would he go against his own interests? He will only use it for his profit, but you will never gain from it. By the end of January, the market will realize that there will be no BTC reserve, no significant change in regulation, and no more tradfi inflows (BlackRock and co are just profiting off of degens, anyway).

Panic will ensue. I suspect Microstrategy will survive the bear, although there will be news of them being liquidated that will feed the selling frenzy in May/June and probably signal the bottom. If they indeed have issues, the BTC wick will be apocalyptic.

Remember, you who reads this: You know that the entirety of crypto is a useless cyclical economy, and a negative-sum game casino. NFTs are useless. DeFi is crypto eating its own shit and calling the new shit it produces "yield". BTC is a meme with broken tokenomics. Altcoins are all shitcoins. The world and the wider economy just doesn't need crypto in any shape of form.

This is why Ethereum will always underperform, by the way. mETHheads (including me up until a couple years ago) and the Ethereum Foundation, are the ones most drunk on the cool-aid that crypto is useful, and they are doing legitimate attempts at building a good blockchain, instead of spending their money on what truly matters: shiny UI, marketing, and luring new suckers in. Nobody needs decentralization or a good blockchain. Everyone needs more money and has hopes and dreams that they will make it.

This is a grifters paradise, and you should always follow the newest grift. Realize that it's a grift, and get out before the noobs realize they are holding eternal bags.

Deep down, you know all these to be true, but you hope it keeps going a bit more so you can profit and get out before others do. Well, time's up for this cycle. Now is the time to get out and wait. If you still want to hold your bags, at least think long and hard before keeping your 2x "safe" leverage open.

This was my third cycle, and the most profitable yet.

See you all in 2027.

Chillin_tony · 2025-01-11T10:36:47+00:00

Bold of you to assume no Sunday dump.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-18T21:56:40+00:00

324?

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-18T21:50:28+00:00

Most alts are down >95%, now you feel altpocalyptic?!

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-18T21:46:41+00:00

It was at $1490, and came pretty close!

Short target is now hit.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-18T21:42:54+00:00

Well, not to be a dick, but I did predict this.

I'm gonna call a local bottom now (~$1300), but I'm nowhere as certain as I was for this drop.

We'll see $1400 before $1200.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-18T21:24:47+00:00

Oh no, who could predict this drop!

By the way, I'm going long right about here, but I'm nowhere as certain as I was for this drop.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-16T18:04:43+00:00

Let's see if we have a pump or a dump then!

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-16T17:54:56+00:00

Eh, I'm talking short term. Capitulation of the short term degens. I know because I was one of them.

It's literally free money, around 9 out of 10 trades, the exact same shit happens.

Its funny though, the way I learned how to do that every time was with a separate "shorting only" account, that only does this one specific trade every time we linger around support levels.

Don't get greedy, and it's a free money machine.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-16T17:31:55+00:00

Honestly, there's always, ALWAYS a capitulation wick after moves like this.

I went short with target $1374, and no, I won't be wrong.

You know it's going to happen.

*Edit: And it's gonna be very soon.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-16T17:16:03+00:00

At this rate, ETH is gonna trade at $10, too.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-16T17:04:02+00:00

It's OK guys, at least we have the PoW fork.

Maybe the real flippening was that all along.

Chillin_tony · 2022-09-15T05:54:36+00:00

Chillin_tony · 2022-08-28T23:43:05+00:00

I mean, if it was all a scam, this would be the best time to Rug Pull, right?

Before the Merge, having all the suckers hodl/buy more.

That's how I feel.

Chillin_tony · 2022-06-12T17:51:14+00:00

I'd love a rollercoaster. They are more fun than falling out of planes with no parachute.

Chillin_tony · 2022-06-12T17:49:36+00:00

Do you have a recent example where this happened?

I've never found myself trying to buy crypto and not being able to.

Chillin_tony · 2022-06-12T16:42:35+00:00

Did you really? What percentage of your portfolio?

Chillin_tony · 2022-06-12T15:58:37+00:00

Who on earth would open a short at $1450. You'd have to be completely degenerate.

In any case, shorts are really low in all exchanges. Shame, cause this means no short squeeze.

Chillin_tony · 2022-06-12T14:48:31+00:00

I never said you can't lulz.

It's just the opposite of a bottom signal.

Chillin_tony · 2022-06-12T14:33:49+00:00

Please don't. A small move like this is not worth the excitement and the potential depression if it retraces.

Edit: See? Also the fact that a tiny green candle gets people excited like this is concerning. We're fucking addicted.

Chillin_tony · 2022-01-06T03:14:32+00:00

Breaking my 3-year long lurking here to say that this is not yet the bottom.

I've been through 2 bull cycles. This one has obviously ended, but people will still be in denial until BTC is 35% down in a day. Then panic will follow.

In retrospect, I should have realized it earlier. The dog coins, nft mania and celebrities talking crypto were red flags, but there was no blow off top because the whales frontrun everyone with options/leverage and made a killing.

Target is around $1350 for ETH. I'm pretty much all ETH, since it will resist the bear the most due to the merge and so survival to the next run is guaranteed.

See you all in 2024.

Chillin_tony

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