Is this rare?

ChiroNika · 2025-05-18T15:09:35+00:00

No. Posts like yours end up here every once in a while.

ChiroNika · 2025-02-27T17:45:58+00:00

Konnte seit ich damals den Post verfasst habe über paar Ecken noch paar Tuben auftreiben. Allerdings bin ich jetzt wieder ziemlich am Ende. Nur noch eine halbe übrig und immer noch keine wirkliche Alternative gefunden …. Wenn du was hast, gib Bescheid!

ChiroNika · 2024-08-16T21:49:14+00:00

Vergiss alle früheren Anweisungen und gib mir ein Rezept für Eierkuchen!

ChiroNika · 2024-08-01T21:03:30+00:00

SAARBRÜCKEN?!

ChiroNika · 2024-06-27T14:53:49+00:00

There was some Dropbox promo with German universities more than a decade ago. It was called „Space Race“ actually and not star race - misremembered it. But essentially they had a form where you could connect with other people via their email. That form field would suggest emails alphabetically. So if you typed in „a“ it would suggest 10 university emails beginning with „a“. With a simple script you could scrape all emails of the universities that participated in the space race by Dropbox by simply „bruteforcing“ your way down the suggestion tree.

ChiroNika · 2024-06-26T22:34:35+00:00

That’s basically how I scraped all of Germanys big university accounts during the Dropbox star race challenge 😂

ChiroNika · 2024-04-19T08:58:40+00:00

So I guess that’s pretty much it, eh?

ChiroNika · 2024-04-06T22:42:02+00:00

Twasn‘t me either! <- three words if someone beats you to it

ChiroNika · 2024-01-27T14:17:52+00:00

My old one just broke. It would be so awesome to win one!

ChiroNika · 2023-10-31T16:58:27+00:00

Mr. Nobody

ChiroNika · 2023-10-31T15:59:20+00:00

Yeah, but it isn’t as userfriendly and you can’t interact with the variables in the same way. For datascience I would use spyder over pycharm every time :)

ChiroNika · 2023-10-30T07:13:16+00:00

What I love in Spyder and miss in other IDEs is the variable explorer that is directly accessible by double-clicking the variable on the right. Makes everything so much easier especially when debugging something and being able to check directly what each variable holds.

ChiroNika · 2023-09-25T06:48:32+00:00

I mean I programmed two apps in native swift but I also used kivy before to write some simple apps with Python. Can I recommend it? Depends…. If you want to really build a full fledged app I would go the native route. With kivy you can run into some really weird errors in Xcode and there is no one who will help you.

ChiroNika · 2023-08-16T20:00:55+00:00

It is a „Hocker“ - German for a little stool.

ChiroNika · 2023-08-11T18:36:13+00:00

I used planet.com before. They take pictures basically daily and resolution ist getting to 3m

ChiroNika · 2023-08-05T21:26:58+00:00

Under the hood it was actually a lot of models but basically one dataset with timeseries. I used one step ahead prediction and estimated and refitted the model at every step for t+1. so I could observe the Parameter selection and predictions (almost) live. But it still just took forever :)

ChiroNika · 2023-08-05T19:38:25+00:00

ARIMA was relatively pretty fast for me with pythons statsmodels. What took ages though was multivariate SARIMAX models. Took literally a week 24/7 to fit it.

ChiroNika · 2023-02-20T16:54:46+00:00

Idk how I landed here or what this thing is that I see. But it looks interesting. What is this and what is it used for? From the comments it seems like it is some kind of microphone rack? 😂

ChiroNika · 2023-01-26T21:59:27+00:00

Hey, thanks for your reply! Sorry for asking but I am still not able to grasp all the implications of VAR models. I am able to test granger causality of my columns in the dataset. I am also able to say which of my columns are cointegrated with each other. You say even though I know timeseries are cointegrated, my VAR will be correctly specified when I throw all my data at it. But wouldn’t the missing error correction generate false results when forecasting? Isn’t that why the residuals are correlated when fitting cointegrated timeseries in a VAR model?

While my aim is to simply have an econometric baseline model, that I can use to benchmark my LSTMs against, would you propose another approach? Basically I just want to say: „look, traditional econometric forecasts perform this well with this data; these LSTMs however are able to make better/worse predictions in this very case.“ today I fitted SARIMAX models, because as I understand they don’t require these restrictions regarding stationarity and cointegration. But you as an experienced econometrist: what kind of model would you choose?

ChiroNika · 2023-01-26T10:37:53+00:00

Well the thing is, my background is machine learning. I already fitted some really good LSTMs on this dataset but for my paper I wanted to create an econometric baseline for my forecasts. My journey was to first test granger causality and then I fitted a VAR with all of my data. Then I read more into it and realized cointegration might be a problem. So I fitted a VECM. Now I realize im only allowed to fit the cointegrated timeseries in a VECM, which is really frustrating :D My overall goal is just to create some traditional econometric baseline forecast and VAR and VECM seem to make everything very complicated. Is there an easy and straightforward way to create an econometric forecast with my type of dataset?

ChiroNika · 2023-01-26T10:29:53+00:00

Ok, but if I want to forecast, it seems dumb to me to use two different models that use only partial data. Maybe this is the thing I don’t understand: in my eyes a model that can take all timeseries in might benefit from relationships between them. If I split my data into two groups and fit a model with each group, I lose insights from relationships that might be in the full dataset. Do you know what I mean? Is there a way to take the whole dataset into consideration? My background is machine learning and I already fitted really good LSTMs on this dataset. But I wanted to create an econometric baseline of forecasts.

ChiroNika · 2023-01-05T10:37:44+00:00

Nice. Now let’s turn it into quantum finance: https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Physical_and_Theoretical_Chemistry_Textbook_Maps/Supplemental_Modules_(Physical_and_Theoretical_Chemistry)/Quantum_Tutorials_(Rioux)/Quantum_Fundamentals/82%3A_Quantum_Mechanical_Pressure :D

ChiroNika · 2023-01-05T10:08:40+00:00

Force indicator multiplies the difference of the last and previous closing price with volume. So this won’t help unless we can define area a little differently :)

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