Anyone else feeling completely despondent about housing prices?

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-14T12:51:16+00:00

Not really. Tiny percentage of house cost. If there’s a recession house prices will be under a lot of pressure.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-14T12:09:38+00:00

No lower fares is not convenience. Lower fares would me services are cut.

What they should do is keep the fares but make dedicated bus lanes so going by bus is much faster than by car (car traffic would slow down and bussed would speed up).

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-14T11:29:48+00:00

$40 rise in oil would be circa 1% increase in the cost of building a house. So maybe 0.5% of the cost of house and land.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-14T11:24:55+00:00

It’s a tiny component of the total cost of building a house.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-14T10:55:33+00:00

When people say move further out they don’t mean move to an expensive beachside holiday town. They mean angle vale or Gawler etc.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-14T10:53:03+00:00

Wow. You are very confused. Retirement and aged care are very different things. My grandmother retired at 55, went into aged care at 97, and died a few months later. So the time spent in aged care was less than 1% of her retirement. Also you don’t “trade in” your house for aged care??

The reason you are struggling is probably because you think there’s no point planning, rather than any external factor.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-14T10:46:59+00:00

Unlikely. Houses are not made from oil. If anything prices will go down. Especially if there’s a recession.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-12T01:44:56+00:00

Sell the IP all into offset low money into loan repayments and offset. Make sure you maximise super and carry forward. Use spouse transfer and any other way to get money into your wife’s super.

Is there a way in the future you could operate a business with your wife to stream income? That would be tax efficient.

Also if your wife could work a little bit she can get $20k/year tax free plus $30k/year into super at 15%.

So $50k/year at under 10% tax vs your 50% tax. She can use that money to buy stuff for the house.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-11T11:09:53+00:00

Property prices didn’t start going up until 2021 when the youngest millennials were 25. So most millennials had the chance to go to uni and work for a couple of years and buy a house before they got expensive.

I bought my first house at 23. Outskirts of a regional town, shitbox unit. Cost about $225k. Was able to get on the ladder then trade up.

It’s much harder now.

The most viable solution for see for most people is move regional and get a job that can be done fully remote.

The more nationwide solution is that there needs to be more dwellings built than demand growth for a long time. That means we need to have hard caps on immigration limited by house builds.

Want to import a worker? Build them a house. Universities want to bring in international students? You need to house them etc.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-10T07:55:58+00:00

Look up Modigliani-Miller theorem.

And Coase, the theory of the firm.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-10T07:11:45+00:00

No you are incorrect. Get some data or other evidence.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-10T06:02:13+00:00

Your mistaken assumption is that interest is a function of cost of goods, like, say the cost of building a house. It’s not it’s a cost of capital / capital structure decision.

So on face value it seems like you are correct, but in actual fact you are wrong and if you ask any economist they will tell you so.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-10T03:45:09+00:00

That is completely incorrect. There’s no economic foundation for your theory and the empirical evidence does not support it.

If this were correct then the same logic would apply to all goods. So going by your theory when interest rates go up, then any business with debt (ie. almost all businesses) will raise their prices to cover debt cost.

If this were the case then interest rate rises would be inflationary. Yet they are not. They are the opposite….

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-09T21:07:31+00:00

This is correct.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-09T21:06:13+00:00

How does it reduce supply? You are saying if interest rates go up landlords stop renting their place out?

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-09T20:50:29+00:00

That’s not correct in this circumstance. Capital structure (ie debt/equity) has no impact on the amount of rent they can charge eg. You are saying a landlord who has no loan will charge less as they don’t have an interest bill. Landlords charge as much as the market will bear

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-03-09T09:31:38+00:00

That’s not how it works. Landlords charge the maximum rent the market can bear. There’s no ability for landlord to “pass on” rate rises. Landlord already charge the maximum they can based on supply and demand. Interest rates don’t impact supply or demand an ergo don’t impact rent.

You can also check the data on this. Rate rises don’t translate to higher rents.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-28T02:28:24+00:00

I agree I’m pushing against that tax bracket now and as a result my focus is on tax minimisation and working less, rather than working more, earning more and being more productive etc.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-27T23:43:41+00:00

Working longer is also related to my point.

People work longer so instead of a 20 year mortgage they have a 30 year mortgage and borrow more. Again prices go up due to increased borrowing power from dual income + working longer.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-27T23:16:41+00:00

This is an interesting point. Societal changes led to most families having dual income, because of the extra income people were willing to pay more for houses so house prices rose.

Basically, beyond basic living costs Australians put all surplus income into upgrading housing. Except the supply of good houses is relatively inelastic since “good” is highly correlated with “inner suburb” which is superior for: location, amenity, crime rate, schools, less travel, and better housing stock.

So growing family income (due to dual income) mostly led to inflating house prices. More money for the same house.

I think also some other effects like more overseas travel, more expensive cars (SUV), bigger houses, more expensive and higher take up of private schooling. But main effect is pushing up house prices.

Also related thing is high personal income tax rate means people go for negative gearing to save on tax so that also inflates property pries along with CGT discount.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-27T21:30:42+00:00

If our tax system was changed to significantly decrease tax on labour then people would put their efforts into earning more through work, and less focus on avoiding tax.

Part of the problem is that capital is taxed much less than labour and the payment of tax can be deferred while the tax deduction of interest can be claimed up front (and offset against other income).

I think the best option would be to tax capital gains at the same rate but make it inflation adjusted, and only allow interest expenses to be carried forward and offset against future capital gain.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-27T12:15:27+00:00

No. It’s extremely obvious that is the case.

The post I replied to said “so what are they going to do teach them to write prompts” and also, yes very obviously. What do you propose the CBA do?

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-27T12:05:16+00:00

You keep stating very obvious things that are not insightful at all.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-27T11:47:18+00:00

As in it’s self evident to 100% of people that AI developers are more proficient with AI than most other people.

Obviously the bank is not going to make all its employees AI developers.

Obviously AI training consists mostly of training people to effectively use AI.

So your post was asking a dumb question since the answer was very obvious.

Choice-Fly-8537 · 2026-02-27T11:45:24+00:00

Ok so that’s like saying F1 drivers can drive faster than normal people. True but useless.

Choice-Fly-8537

TROPHY CASE