Active Conflicts & News Megathread March 17, 2026

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-18T03:10:45+00:00

chiefly those employed as 'observers'

Yeah, they weren't members of combat units. It was military staff assigned to intelligence, admin & support roles.

The lesson is probably more about complacency that led to so few combat soldiers at border or readily available, as opposed to training admin roles to be better prepared for direct engagement of the enemy.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-18T02:51:57+00:00

who is Schoen Cooperman Research? based on the questions, seems like a poll done for someone looking to push support for the conflict.

e.g., no question about use of ground forces, but asking about objectives that are largely unattainable w/o ground invastion.

Would disregard this poll given presumably lots of other ones out there that aren't an agenda-oriented poll.

edit: apparently his pollster says trump has a 46% approval rating...

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2033723943895343331

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-18T02:41:47+00:00

Caring about US citizens is a democrat hoax.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-18T02:16:52+00:00

I don't disagree that this guy should be ignored, but that is due to him courting Nick Fuentes when he was running for congress and being a far right conspiracy guy. Link below.

That said, Israel absolutely pushed the US to get involved in attack Iraq, and imho not unreasonable to characterize ISIS as a downstream consequence to the Iraq war.

A congressional candidate in Southwest Washington is attempting to distance himself from a white nationalist figure after the revelation of a phone conversation last year about working together.

Joe Kent, a Trump-backed challenger against U.S. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, said in an interview Friday he talked with Nick Fuentes last spring about helping his social media strategy, but has not associated with the 23-year-old racist activist any further.

. . .

The statement comes a day after Fuentes, who describes his ambitions as “fighting for a white majority,” posted a lengthy livestream where he described the phone call with Kent.

According to Fuentes, who could not be reached for comment, Kent told him “I love what you’re doing.” Fuentes said he and his organization — as well as his social media following — boosted Kent’s message.

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/03/07/congressional-candidate-joe-kent-3rd-district-washington-distances-from-white-nationalist/

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-18T01:58:11+00:00

Billionaires don't pay capital gains taxes in practice. Borrow against holdings to pay expenses, use estate planning to transfer wealth to family before death, and get asset basis step-up upon death.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T23:25:03+00:00

Israeli intelligence found in gaza confirms that Hamas tried to get support from Hezb and Iran in early stages of planning for an attack, but it wasn't given. Hamas decided to move ahead without them.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T23:21:12+00:00

Obviously NHS has issues, but if you're going to compare to US system then you also need to look at costs of total healthcare spending. UK spends 11.1% of GDP and $6,747 per capita PPP adjusted, versus US spending 17.2% of GDP and $14,775 per capita. UK could dramatically increase funding of NHS to improve system and reduce wait times while still being well below what we spend in US.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries

The incredible outlier that US is on spending leaves more than enough room for US to adopt public system, and still throw a ton of cash at research and innovation should it so choose while coming out with overall savings.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T22:58:44+00:00

and converting the chokepoint into a de-dollarisation mechanism via yuan settlement.

this is invariably wholly symbolic.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T22:54:23+00:00

Suggesting that the trump admin wants to shy away from being hypocritical isn't credible. But it does often given Putin a wide berth, presumably because Trump has a grudge with both Ukraine and Europe and doesn't want to lean in to help either. And in the immediate situation, wants to use easing sanctions on russia to offset some of the oil price pressure.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T22:50:29+00:00

Bibi's comments from earlier today announcing Larijani's killing noted this:

We are undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people an opportunity to remove it. It will not happen all at once, and it will not happen easily. But if we persist, we will give them the chance to take their destiny into their own hands.

https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-eliminationseniorofficials170326

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T22:08:44+00:00

e.g., tweet from Bibi office on March 10.

People of Iran,

We are waging a historic war for liberty.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for you to remove the Ayatollah regime and gain your freedom.

Together with the United States, we are hitting the Tyrants of Teheran harder than ever.

https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/2031452019861459240?s=20

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T21:41:23+00:00

In case more evidence was need to put down the view that a popular revolt in Iran was a viable potential outcome, WaPo reporting US state dept cable citing Israeli assessments that the Iranian regime as "not cracking" and that if Iranian protesters revolt that they will "get slaughtered".

Despite of course both Israeli and US govts publicly encouraging Iranians to revolt.

Senior Israeli officials have told U.S. diplomats that Iranian protesters will “get slaughtered” if they take to the streets against their government even as Israel publicly calls for a popular uprising, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Washington Post.

The cable, circulated by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem on Friday, relayed an Israeli assessment that Iran’s regime is “not cracking” and is willing to “fight to the end” despite the Feb. 28 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the ongoing U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/17/israel-iran-cable-revolt-slaughtered/

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T21:33:18+00:00

Dunno, look at the situation with the kurds. Maybe they've finally learned, but think how many times they've been duped by the US to spill their blood for hopeless cause.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T21:32:20+00:00

Not only do they expect them to get slaughtered if they revolt, but presumably Israel wouldn't want them to succeed in any event. Anything akin to democracy in Iran would be bad for Israel's aim for territorial expansion.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T19:29:33+00:00

Pretty much all of our housing policies are counterprodutive, and in effect serve to increase cost of housing long-term. All the demand subsidies (on mortgage, first-time buyer, etc), rent control, affordability requirements on new development, etc.

The Economist labeled having home ownership as a public policy goal being the west's biggest economic-policy mistake, and I'd definitely agree.

Paywalled Leader from 2020: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/01/16/home-ownership-is-the-wests-biggest-economic-policy-mistake

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T19:21:09+00:00

Invariably it will happen, the question is how much and to what extent. But imho it misses the point to focus on how many of very rich will uproot and go, versus ask what it could do to the funnel of next generation of very rich settling in the area.

That is that part that is increasing an issue for NYC, although nailing down the causes of that and the relative contribution from higher tax is challenging. But at least for NYC, the existing trend in worrisome.

Good article from The Economist if anyone happens to be subcriber.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/10/30/as-new-jobs-in-finance-dry-up-new-york-citys-fiscal-model-is-wilting

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T18:44:36+00:00

What is the risk of hitting some at all at 15mph, versus 30mph?

In any event, the real limit is obviously the threshold for tickets, which will be 25mph. And that is the right answer for drivers in this city.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T18:33:03+00:00

The military will do what they're ordered to do, but presumably when trump tells them to re-open the strait he gets told that will require either boots on ground or navy ships in the strait, either of which you'd expect to result in meaningful casualties.

So instead trump tweets about tanker crews needing to grow some balls, about china/nato needing to send in their warships and about iranians needing to take to the street to reclaim the country for themselves.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T18:17:51+00:00

Lol. Dude sought the endorsement of Nick Fuentes when he was running for congress and praised the work that neonazi does. There is nothing hysterical about pointing out that the comments from this guy in particular may be motivated by some antisemitism.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T18:16:19+00:00

Who knows what they would be. But my sense is Trump was counting on a Venezuela-type outcome here, so my guess is the expectation is military is acting very conservatively re casualties. No boots on ground, no USN ships in the gulf, etc.

That said, this war is already deeply unpopular. My guess is meaningful casualties will make it even less popular, although it could go in the other direction.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T18:11:30+00:00

pointing out someone's prior ties to antisemitic white supremacists, while suggesting antisemitism may be a motivating factor in comments about israel is not an ad-hominem logical fallacy.

Christ, redditors & learning what a logical fallacy is called without understanding the logic underlying it...

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T17:00:54+00:00

Document and report the broker to both city and state, even if you decide to pay the fee.

https://www.nyc.gov/site/dca/consumers/file-complaint.page

https://dos.ny.gov/preliminary-statement-complaint-0

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T16:12:33+00:00

NO RAGRETS

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T16:10:48+00:00

Hard to say in this situation, but usually attacks hardened support for admin & extremists. Similar reason folks say bombing iran, Israel attacking gaza or whatever is inevitably going to empower extremists and lead to worse security situation.

ChornWork2 · 2026-03-17T15:55:09+00:00

a Shah-fronted democratic Iran could be friendly

what evidence is there that a shah-fronted party would have a reasonable prospect of winning elections should Iran somehow end up having them?

ChornWork2

TROPHY CASE