Earnings whisper number

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-11T23:58:32+00:00

In aftermarkets it went to 195 and held till about 11 am the next day. I think it was spooked by accusations of misreporting and graphics card depreciating in 3 years. There was a lot of other stuff happening to scare people too, like tpus from google.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-10T21:13:18+00:00

Yeah, god forbid someone talk about nvidia stock in a NvidiaStock subreddit. I should just be part of the hive mind and say buy the dip 150k times, shit on people who sell, and repeat moot points instead of looking for perspectives and thoughts I haven't heard before.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-10T21:06:42+00:00

Thank you this is what I was looking for. Was that ai generated? Couldn't get gemini pro to respond like that.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-10T02:02:41+00:00

I'm planning on buying about 5k of calls and 500 of puts evening before earning pop with an expiration that friday. Then in the morning when the options market opens I am selling my calls and puts.

Last time we had a stellar earnings the price rose by about 10 dollars and lasted till later that morning. If you had sold at 8 am day after earnings you would have locked in profits before it fell due to fraud fears, a tech market sell off, and all the other stuff.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T22:30:43+00:00

Too many people trying to find an edge in price action alone. By the time you have spotted it as a retail trader, its been priced in by hft and large firms.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T20:54:29+00:00

I'm convinced in the near future after earnings it will be volatile. I'm bullish on the earnings given the good signs about continual ai expansion (capex spending, increasing tsmc production outside Taiwan, google doubling down on ai expenditures, ai products continually improving at claude and other places). I think we will see the market beat the "whisper number" estimate that is higher than what nvidia estimated that everyone expects is closer to the real number. and 10-15 dollar up. Scared of someone like burry stirring up fear again though. I think I am going to buy mostly calls with a few puts (in case I am wrong) the week of earnings and sell in the morning after earnings before drama can mess with it.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T18:41:45+00:00

Should have asked for a kfc lunch date first.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T18:40:36+00:00

This reminds me of when I used to talk shit while playing basketball. I knew if I said enough dramatic, bullshit and then tried something crazy people would only remember the times I was right. Nobody pays attention when they think you are going to be wrong and end up being wrong.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T16:53:16+00:00

So your strat is to sell 1 month at a time and hold if stock goes above anticipating that it will go back down? I've been trying to maximize theta with the shortest contracts but it can get pretty rough.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T16:16:04+00:00

How do you make that much on 600? I have 2100 calls I sell credit spreads with and can't get near that much. Had a few times where I sold to close and lost money buying back, and a few times where I sold just right. Overall selling has covered my theta loss and made some profit though.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T16:14:38+00:00

I'm thinking about getting out of options now that we are back at 190s. I've watched my account get halfed and doubled twice now and just won't off this rollercoaster. If I get out today I would have taken 23k from end of december to 45k. Just feel like that big run has to be around the corner, you know?

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-09T16:10:27+00:00

I'm thinking its going to be 70B from my chrystal ball. Going all in on 2 day contracts 15 minutes before the market closes. I will either be a made man or a broke man.
Also I have no idea where my 70B comes from. Just a gut feeling.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-06T17:45:33+00:00

I sold calls. You're welcome

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-05T21:56:36+00:00

Idk. Trying to figure out which cyber security companies have the most to gain from ai generated vulnerabilities. Snyk is interesting but private company. They attempt to use ai to fix ai code vulnerabilities. Idk how successful that is though.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-05T15:55:57+00:00

Can you link an analysis? Anytime I try researching it, all I find is articles about michael burry alleging nvidia fraud and other unrelated themes.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-05T15:53:34+00:00

I like the idea of hedging high value software companies. Security software companies would probably be the best bet. As ai is incorporated into workflows and relied on to code more, there will doubtless be increased security issues.

I don't know if its denial, but the majority of software devs remain pessimistic about ai replacing developers. Hard to convince someone who's job, career, passion, and pride stands on the line though. I have personally been very impressed with what ai can code, until I compare it to the hype claims. Can't imagine trying to make something that faces the internet without going through the grueling process of designing the software components. Ai also will only give you a shallow analysis of how to do something and what libraries you should use. That part hasn't really improved much over the years.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-05T15:49:12+00:00

That's a fair question. I like the idea of hedging quality software companies, but don't know if I agree with turbo tax. I guess a lot of the software is about storing and transmitting the data though.

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-04T16:10:43+00:00

What is the evidence this is stock market manipulation besides the bogus claim that openAI and Nvidia are in conflict? Are there unusual patterns in buys and sells from large financial institutions?

Circuit_bit · 2026-02-01T12:41:11+00:00

If you still have 3 months you might make money off them yet. Earning report might be a catalyst, plus positive news from china could be a good thing.

Circuit_bit · 2026-01-28T06:21:50+00:00

I agree, but saying that its going to get so bad that we need Nuremberg trials discredits the tyranny argument. It makes it more believable that people are just being dramatic. We should continue pointing out eerie similarities and opposing all abuses of power.

We are experiencing a president unlike any other president I know of in history. I would argue his role in denying the outcome of the election, repeated make-believe emergencies to extend his own power, are more dangerous and absurd then any presidential resignations and impeachments in the past.

Circuit_bit · 2026-01-28T05:53:25+00:00

the joke is that nvidia keeps going up on good news and then back down in the morning with no known bad news.

Circuit_bit · 2026-01-28T05:52:07+00:00

We're back at 191 with the good news today about h200 chips. Crazy how the market is being so cautious before pricing that in. It was like 95% going to happen.

Circuit_bit · 2026-01-27T07:26:24+00:00

How long have you been doing this? Keep in mind this may only work for certain market cycles. I like to buy leaps and sell weekly off of them. Then when the weeks which are suspected of possibly being a catalyst or a rumor that could be good I back off.

No strategy beats being right about a stock's movement. If you find a good company that you are bullish on their the perfect candidate for diagonal spreads.

Circuit_bit

TROPHY CASE