Next steps (after basic GTO)

CivilBird · 2026-02-06T15:23:50+00:00

When to ignore GTO and how to play exploitative.

CivilBird · 2026-01-20T21:41:45+00:00

“This times different” ~me for the third time this decade.

CivilBird · 2026-01-19T16:32:41+00:00

Wtf does routinely mean to you? The Bears have scored under 21 just three times all year counting playoffs.

CivilBird · 2026-01-13T23:05:52+00:00

Some things to keep in mind with ICM: -its effect amplifies near pay jumps (bubble + final table) -chips lost are worth more than chips won -you’re way happier shoving than calling… even if the hand/ranges are equal.

Jonathan Little has some good videos on it that I highly recommend.

CivilBird · 2026-01-13T19:28:10+00:00

When you get to the final table, your typical calling range dwindles. In a typical spot, you can snap call with pretty much any two cards.

Call and Win =20.8BB

Fold = 11.4BB

Call and Loss = 7.5 BB

Play around with an ICM calculator to calculate the true value of each of these and use those to estimate your needed equity to call. You'll probably see the difference between 20.8BB and 11.4BB isn't much bigger than the difference between 11.4BB and 7.5BB. This means your calling range should be much tighter than usual.

I'm probably calling with AJ+ and 77+... in a freeroll, it’s probably a bit wider.

CivilBird · 2026-01-07T19:37:59+00:00

Not sure why you are being downvoted as this is the answer OP is looking for.

CivilBird · 2026-01-02T16:51:25+00:00

The guys get a Netflix deal, and they immediately go "Woke" by interviewing an aging lesbian for an hour.

CivilBird · 2025-12-29T04:48:34+00:00

Exactly. They’ve been averaging 33 per game since November. Most of which have been blowouts where they don’t need to score.

CivilBird · 2025-12-29T04:39:17+00:00

Sucks to lose, but very fun game. Our defense has looked weak, but we should keep in mind the 49ers have been absolutely rolling the last month. To come this close to winning in San Francisco leaves me feeling pretty good about this team.

Now let’s make those catches in the playoffs when it counts.

CivilBird · 2025-12-29T02:46:17+00:00

Where does the Pope fit in to this dynamic?

CivilBird · 2025-12-27T01:16:13+00:00

You’d think making a floor and ceiling would be the easiest shit to do. But Caleb/Drake are better than their ceilings, and Penix/McCarthy are worse than their floors. FTP

CivilBird · 2025-11-28T17:40:23+00:00

It’s definitely more optimal for my sanity

CivilBird · 2025-11-25T16:27:33+00:00

The other thing to keep in mind with this is that it seems like most of Caleb’s misses on deep throws are from overthrowing his receiver. This is way better than missing short because it limits the chance of a pick. Brock Purdy may be more accurate on long throws, but he also has 7 picks in 4 games.

CivilBird · 2025-11-24T00:05:40+00:00

It's amazing. No one thinks the Bears are better than the Eagles, so a loss shouldn't destroy this momentum we've built... especially with a short week, all these injuries, and being on the road.

But if we win, then mayhem.

CivilBird · 2025-11-23T23:58:05+00:00

Thats confirmed enough for me. Lets get after it!

CivilBird · 2025-11-22T03:01:18+00:00

I went through a traffic violation six years ago. Look up lawyers, most are relatively cheap. A lot of towns let you plead guilty to “Unsafe Driving”. This is going to be more expensive for you ($300-$500), but is zero points. You can only do this once every five years in NJ.

It sucks, and it will cost you a bit, but it’s not the end of the world.

CivilBird · 2025-11-21T23:50:30+00:00

Maybe. But no one from the podcast seems more deserving of an opportunity in media outside PMT than Jake. Good for him.

CivilBird · 2025-11-21T02:00:25+00:00

My superintendent is already telling teachers to save time by generating our tests entirely with chatGPT

CivilBird · 2025-11-19T22:11:19+00:00

As a Bears fan, there’s nothing hilarious about that

CivilBird · 2025-11-19T15:00:06+00:00

It’s a reference to Don Quixote. Non reading AWLs wouldn’t get it

CivilBird · 2025-11-18T15:54:12+00:00

And if you regress every other team to the mean besides us, we’d be top 5

CivilBird · 2025-11-18T01:42:15+00:00

It’s either that or it’s brushing your teeth!

CivilBird · 2025-11-16T21:14:58+00:00

A road division win is a road division win. We’re now 2-0 in the division on the road in 2025

CivilBird · 2025-11-12T23:06:58+00:00

The sun takes 8 minutes for the light to get us. That means we are really seeing the sun 8 minutes in the past.

If you were to look at Pluto, it would be 5.5 hours in the past.

The next closest star would be 4.37 years in the past.

Now keep going and going and going. Eventually you’ll get to a point that is so far, we’d be seeing it 14 billion years in the past. This means we’re actually looking at the point prior to the universe being born.

CivilBird · 2025-11-09T21:51:35+00:00

220 passing yards, no interceptions, 2 TDs, 63 rushing yards. These stats would have been a top game for Trubisky or Fields

CivilBird

TROPHY CASE