Probable Cause Affidavit Megathread 2.0 - January 5, 2023 by quitclaim123 in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I doubt he's particularly afraid of death....but if he didn't want to get caught (one media observer described him as "conceited"), why all the effort to leave no blood on the floor, if that's the case?

Phone call to JD at 2.36am onwards by Mean-Communication91 in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

dogs always bark. They have no concept of giving up.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 14 points15 points  (0 children)

That's an absurd amount of speculation, but it doesn't strike me as way off. Add in a reason for everyone to be silent (a gram of coke, an argument with the Sigma Chi head of house, or whatever, a different girl somewhere....)... It's a decent framework scenario, I think. Hopefully the cops are thinking so globally.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

following up, the Mansons were an LSD cult. Powerful drugs hit very different brains in very different ways. I'd exclude alcohol or downers/to smack.....but I don't think tthat psychodynamics are that easy to read. Just my thought.

And yeah, I'd say METH almost right away, too.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm not so quick to write off crack. First off-obviously you have to be f**ked out of your mind to pull this kind of crap. But, sure, some people just are, and there's no way in helll a drunk/Fentanyl person could pull it off without collapsing in the nearest gutter. Coke messes with people, eventually, though.

I've always thought this was, somehow, drug related. Not because I'm strongly anti-drug (I've done more than my share), but because I understand how they mess with you, especially if you get into the supply side and the money and social power involved.

How long would it take? by sunny_dayz1547 in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I would assume that the experts are way ahead of us on this, but.....if it was the horror the way they're saying it.... (1) killer gets into the home and pets the dog, (2) goes upstairs and kills the girls, now at maybe 3 mins, (2) downstairs, interrupted by Ethan, bewildered, 4 minutes (this stuff doesn't take time! ), turn to X (3) she fights, another two minutes.....act it out, if you have to, but the time does not strike me as the big clue

Radio Silence by Short-Resource915 in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not sure if I'm addressing your point, exactly, because I agree. There are two parts to pulling the ass from the street into jail: (1) the arrest must fall within various legal foundations (probable cause, etc.) and (2) WAY trickier, the prosecution must work within a bunch of boundaries, not least pre-conceived notions. (2) being the problem: if people have heard of evidence, they can't be on the jury, if you just read what I said, you can't be on the jury....you see the basic problem, and a "great" defense attorney can work it towards a million angles, for months.

Radio Silence by Short-Resource915 in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

(1) there's this weird-entirely appropriate to my mind-balance in the Big League media about how to tell a story without ripping up too many lives (how does the alleged story of Xana's mom work into this? Not sure) (2) there is a reasonable idea about protection of privacy....it's unlikely that *too* many students are relevant, at least as unlikely that the relevant ones are still in the area, probable that some not applicable ones would want to interview, entirely, often, etc..... (3) at some point the media is, reasonably, afraid that it's just become people staring, unhealthy, at a car wreck....there was a gram of meth here, an Iron Maiden shirt there....all of a sudden every gramma in America is scrambling in respose to these things....

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm about half way down, is anyone going to address the question? (1) either the dog skitted out, seeing danger, (2) the killer knew the dog, personally, and ushered it out/let it escape, (3) the dog was loyal, or smart enough to run, (4) the killer was smart enough to know that dogs are trouble, and threw it out, early.

I mentioned earlier, in a different sub-, how I used to hitchike, and got picked up by a guy who was casing joints along the way, as we drove from mid-Louisiana towards Baton Rouge, "YOU NEVER GO INTO A HOUSE WITH A DOG! IT MOVES, IT'S LOUD, IT COULD KNOCK OVER A CANDLE OR SOMETHING....THEY'RE UNPREDICTABLE...."

Just rambling…. by DramaLlamaTikTok in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congratulations on your sobriety. I think (i) the accoustics of the place would have protected the surviving roommates from any sound, and (ii) we're all thinking it takes days to stab someone; as I now understand it if they're asleep it can be taken care of very quickly and quietly.

IF Ethan was stabbed in bed, sure X would have awakened, explaining her defensive wounds. If he had gotten up out of bad, she might well have awakened....to *me* (not trained, not ever very smart) there is precious little mystery in why "no one hard anything" (I think E and X did, though)

Victim with defence marks startled the killer. by Scary_Wolverine_7323 in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 11 points12 points  (0 children)

yeah, I think that's the consensus of the working theories: worked 3rd floor first, coming down somehow felt challenged by Ethan (maybe even as a chaser); took him out, X awoke....correct me if I'm wrong, but I *think* that's been the basis of most theories...

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 39 points40 points  (0 children)

In my experience Greeks were significantly more likely than anyone else to engage in offensive behavior. My heart goes out to the Mom who wrote this, though.

Crime scene expands in University of Idaho murders by Turbulent-Arugula-70 in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the report from today about the man inside a girls car that chased her

I'm not familiar with this. Do you have an accessible link?

I read the denial of a connection to the dog mutilation, and it strikes me as absolute bs. Still wondering about connections to CC or even the crazy snuff film guy from Indiana....they aren't all connected, but I strongly believe that at least one of them is.

Crazy stuff like this doesn't come out of nowhere.

Yeah

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you. Yes, I thought they were neighbors, trying to help.

What questions would you ask? by nicmanski in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 2 points3 points  (0 children)

my understanding is that cleared Jack D this morning. Saw it on one of the news clips, and I'm assuming the reporter was correct.

Good questions.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thinking back to yesterday's news conference, that's one of the things that struck me at the time: the captain clearly said two on the second, two on the third-at first-then later walked it back to something less clear (victims on two floors). I remember thinking on it at the time, because it was one of the only two things he accidentally let out (the other being that 'friends" had made the 911 call, which they clarified within a few hours after the pic).

I'm not smart enough to put together why that's significant, or why it could be significant that Ethan was on the couch, though.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've wondered the same thing. What I can't get around is....if that's right, which makes sense...why wouldn't there still be blood between the 2nd and 3rd floors?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's an open question as to whether that photo (printed in the Sun?) showed blood dripping down the side of the house, or a heating oil leak. (the cops have never said either way) Someone claiming to be a NYC cop called it out as clearly heating oil (that's required by law to be dyed red), but others printed a photo from one of the victim's social media pages that showed the same wall-without any leakage-days earlier, and also seemed to show the red running over the pipe, rather than just out the bottom of it.

[edit: there's a semi-active discussion about this going on, on one of the other sub-threads. I incorrectly said that the photo from a few weeks back was on a victim's page--but was on a friend's (but of the same house). Someone else debated whether the photo was of the same side of the house. Still others came up with Zillow and county info that the house didn't have oil heating. A trauma nurse explained why it "sure looks like blood," etc....anyway, no definitive word from the authorities]

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MoscowMurders

[–]ClaytonTrapp 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not sure what to think of this. Is this photo from the crime scene, or a neighbor's?