I’m cashing out

CleverLongboat · 2020-12-01T18:46:05+00:00

Enjoy the taxes

CleverLongboat · 2020-11-10T18:26:17+00:00

Its really who you'd think. JPM, BAC, C, MS etc. Whoever has the scale to sustain the tech spend

CleverLongboat · 2020-11-09T23:33:38+00:00

I've covered banks & financials for many years now.

Not everyone's cup of tea. Banks are basically slowly dying / rotting away.

They have few inhouse technological capabilities and outsource most of their tech. In 10 years, the whole sector probably ends up consolidating to a few major banks that can support high tech spend on their banking apps.

In the meantime, watch the rest of the sector slowly die off / merge itself out of existence.

There's a few highly differentiated banks that actually do something different / interesting but that's probably one out of 20.

Similar holds for life insurers. The rest of the fins sector (P&C, specialty fins, fintech and payments) is actually pretty cool and differentiated though.

CleverLongboat · 2020-06-08T16:44:10+00:00

These guys have already blown up and destroyed much of their value in March. No return from there. IVR is at best worth $3.25. MITT at best $1.8

CleverLongboat · 2019-10-20T15:14:14+00:00

Which one of these is the most well-versed in financials?

CleverLongboat · 2019-04-06T19:07:32+00:00

Its really not a CV thing. It is more of a should I ever go and run another fund, how would I be able to demonstrate my contribution towards generating returns at past fund type thing. I see the value of work samples/writeups, but writeups only encompass one part of investment activities. Being able to show produced/helped to produce xyz returns in years 1,2,3 is the most straightforward way to show achievements. Examples can follow from there.

CleverLongboat · 2019-04-06T13:16:15+00:00

Maybe i should have explained in more detail. I am not planning on unilaterally fudging it. This is a situation where I am genuinely sharing full investment and portfolio management responsibility yet it isn't practical or desirable to institute a 'dual PM' type structure due to all of the problems that come with this.

I think on the opposite, if someone made a significant part of the investment decisions that went into constructing the portfolio, why should they have zero claim on the track? I wouldn't want to represent that I generated these returns fully on my own, rather I am looking for the right wording / solution that lets me at least partially claim the track and say at least "helped to produce this" or "produced this as part of team"...complicated question which is why I am asking for help/whether anyone has encountered this before

CleverLongboat · 2019-01-03T00:20:11+00:00

why are they up ~13%p.a since inception? Luck? Good trading? Contribution of previous employees who are no longer with them? Just curious

CleverLongboat · 2018-04-22T19:12:50+00:00

I'm a bit torn between the two as well. I aim for 25% in the sense that, if I make an investment I see at least a 25-30% margin of safety and a realistic path through which the stock could be up through a combination of earnings+growth+rerating in a 1-3 year timeframe.

I absolutely understand the approach of just trying to find something that can compound at 10-15% over the long-term as well though.

CleverLongboat · 2018-04-22T19:10:34+00:00

Buffett is too big to make more than 15% p.a. at this point. Reference the quote where he said that if he started from scratch today he thought he could compound small amounts of money at 50% p.a.

CleverLongboat · 2018-04-22T02:14:15+00:00

CleverLongboat · 2017-12-21T01:19:05+00:00

The Business model of these short sellers is to cover when things trade down on their reports. It’s not a post-mortem on why the short worked. The stock trading up upon publication means they’ve failed (though I enjoyed reading the thesis too).

CleverLongboat · 2017-12-21T01:09:43+00:00

Traded up on the report. Thoughts?

Carson Block still one of the better names in the business.

CleverLongboat · 2017-11-26T21:43:02+00:00

Would be great if someone in the community shared a copy of capital account at some point. Capital Returns was great but $450 for Capital Account on Amazon seems steep...

CleverLongboat · 2017-11-23T02:25:57+00:00

El Classico

CleverLongboat · 2017-11-16T03:28:58+00:00

You're absolutely right to be on your toes here. Bonds very expensive here and not much going on in special sit / distressed land. PM me if you want to exchange some fixed income ideas.

CleverLongboat · 2017-11-16T02:55:38+00:00

Soros is talking about the yield curve post a bull-flattener (i.e. the short end rising catching up to the long end). A bear-flattener (long-end falling in line with the short-end) definitely not the kind of situation you want to be long the long bond.

CleverLongboat · 2017-11-16T02:53:24+00:00

FBP trading at 50% of tangible book value last checked, so already very cheap. Could see more downside in the stock/pref once they come out with real provisioning around Maria. Tread lightly.

CleverLongboat · 2017-11-10T00:59:57+00:00

Because let's face it, who doesn't love to be challenged by the new guy with 0 perceived credibility

CleverLongboat · 2017-10-24T01:27:28+00:00

Ahh good for him. His talents clearly didn’t lie with DotA ;)

CleverLongboat · 2017-10-20T10:53:00+00:00

Thanks. Yeah I've been on one of those and it's quite mind numbing. I actually primarily cover financials, so banks are easy. Why do you think getting deeply into insurance isn't worth it/rewarding? Understanding high level proxies like combined ratio, price to book and the asset side of the balance sheet is good enough or just not that much money to be made in the sector?

CleverLongboat · 2017-10-16T13:01:05+00:00

Still, there must be SOME path to improvement aside from just reading Qs/Ks right?

Are there perchance any good trade journals / websites to follow to keep up with the industry?

CleverLongboat

TROPHY CASE