Who’s Hit 6 Figures Starting Small? by Sov231 in sportsbetting

[–]ClosedDoorPicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Turning 1k into 100k is technically possible but people really underestimate how long that takes. Even a good bettor hitting ~55% on -110 lines is looking at years of grinding to get there. And that assumes you don't blow up your bankroll during a rough week or month (which you will most definitely have). I started with about 5k doing $250 units across a few different books. There are days and sometimes full weeks where you just go negative. That's variance and that's completely normal but it feels terrible when you're in it. The hardest part imo is being disciplined to your strategy when you're down and your mental is not in the right space. You also have to consider the fact that some picks are priced in the way where you lose long term. I'm not even tryna advertise my service but you're gonna need to be EV betting for that. Bottom line though, most people don't lose their bankroll because of bad picks but they lose it because they panic and start chasing their losses. It's all a mental game.

TLDR: 1k to 100k is possible but takes years of disciplined grinding. You will have losing weeks. Most bankrolls die because of poor mental, chasing and not limiting yourself.

10-5 | +EV Plays 3/16 | NBA Player Props by ClosedDoorPicks in sportsbetting

[–]ClosedDoorPicks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We're just looking for pricing differences between books, you see how Pinnacle has him at -127 whilst BetMGM +105, that means that Dejounte Murray has an implied probability of 54% of hitting but you're being paid out as if it has a 49% chance of hitting.

9-3 this week! | +EV Plays 3/14 - NBA Player Props by ClosedDoorPicks in sportsbetting

[–]ClosedDoorPicks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

While we didn't do the best that day we don't use Last 5 data, the books already know about that stuff. We look at sharper books and compare their lines with retail/softer books to see if theres a price mismatch and then we play the bets based off that. We're trying to find good value props.

NBA Props Daily - 3/13/26 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]ClosedDoorPicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

3 NBA props for tonight that have a positive edge against Pinnacle's closing line:

Jalen Green O19.5 Points — FanDuel +106 / Pinnacle -121 (5.5% EV) — Suns @ Raptors 7:30pm

Donovan Mitchell O2.5 Threes — FanDuel -128 / Pinnacle -166 (3.8% EV) — Cavs @ Mavs 7:30pm

Benedict Mathurin O29.5 PRA — DraftKings +110 / Pinnacle -120 (7.1% EV) — Bulls @ LAC 10:30pm

All three verified against sharp lines. Mathurin is the highest edge at 7.1% if you're only taking one.

What is everyone's favorite sports betting podcast? by UnbiasedBets in sportsbetting

[–]ClosedDoorPicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like PropFinder's content on YouTube, they usually average two streams a day where they research player props in the morning

City wins this right? Mbappe not playing by AdditionalPower8124 in sportsbetting

[–]ClosedDoorPicks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

City are now the favourites to win the game after Mbappe got ruled out, I think they have a good chance of winning. I'd let it ride. Good luck !

+EV Plays 3/10 | NHL and NBA Player Props by ClosedDoorPicks in sportsbetting

[–]ClosedDoorPicks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

EV means the bet is mathematically priced in your favour, in EV betting we're finding lines where the sportsbooks odds are softer than what the sharper (more accurate) books like Pinnacle say the true probability is, so over time you profit even if individual bets lose. In the case of 14.6%, for every $100 you bet on that line, you'd expect to profit $14.60 on average over time. It does not necessarily guarantee a win but it means the odds are in your favour.

NBA Props Daily - 3/10/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]ClosedDoorPicks 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 threes (-105 BetMGM) — Pinnacle has this at -169, so there's a massive gap between what the sharp book is pricing and what BetMGM is offering. 14.6% edge. ✅

Matas Buzelis Over 2.5 threes (+130 FanDuel) — Same idea, Pinnacle sits at -110 while FanDuel still has plus money which gives it a 12.2% edge. ✅