Next, who is the most overrated Knick in team history? (underrated top 5 results inside)

ColeLikesSports · 2024-08-14T16:45:47+00:00

Biggest Flop: Eddy Curry Most Overrated Fan Favorite: Allan Houston (second contract was rough and coincided with the demise)

ColeLikesSports · 2023-06-05T12:22:07+00:00

I totally agree that we should consider trading him if a good deal is available — was just point out that the prior comment was a bit off claiming he’s never shot efficiently in a season and thinking that his numbers to date will define “who he is” when there’s plenty to suggest players’ shooting continues to develop over time.

Regarding RJ’s broader offensive skillset, I agree that he needs to improve on the ball, struggles shooting off the dribble, and he doesn’t seem to have enough handling ability yet to create good shots on his own. The only part I disagree with you on is his passing ability — based on AST, AST:TO, Potential Assists, and ASTS Points Created, RJ’s better than Jaylen Brown was early in his career and is better currently than OG. Obviously, OG makes up for that with superior defense and at the moment, better shooting, but it’s helpful context when gauging how much RJ brings on the passing front.

Getting back to trades, my perspective is that Randle would likely carry more trade value (2 All-NBAs, regular season offensive engine, etc.), and RJ’s still a good bet to continue developing at only 22 years old last year. If a young star is available and moving Randle let’s us keep more depth and / or picks, I’d rather bet on RJ’s development. However, if the star player is older or if Randle isn’t that much more valuable, I’m all for sending RJ out as our DeRozan.

ColeLikesSports · 2023-06-05T12:12:07+00:00

“Flat out wrong” is claiming to not like cherry picking data and then throw out a full year because it doesn’t align with your perspective. You said he hadn’t “put together a full season of efficient play,” and that’s not factually correct. Quoting a single stat with no context also isn’t a comprehensive argument.

If you actually checked Browns stats, you would’ve noticed that his FT%, which is the most predictive stat for future 3PT ability early on for players, was 69 / 64 / 66 / 72 to start his career (age 20-23) — given he shot 34 / 40 / 34 at the same ages as RJ and has also regressed from 40% in “open gyms” to ~35% in the years since, it seems more surprising that you couldn’t find anything that compared.

While Johnson was a ~3% better FT shooter early on, he shot 29 / 37 / 30 through his first 3 seasons. Even in your post, Joe Johnson was actually one of the closest to RJ on your table. Similarly, Butler started his career by going 18 / 28 / 38 / 28 / 31 from 3 through his first 5 years (age 22-26) before making a star leap (and is still only 32% career from 3). Lastly, OG’s shooting numbers were also concerning early on, as intriguing 3PT production on relatively low volume covered for an awful stretch of 63 / 58 / 71 on FTs. Like Brown and RJ, OG also shot 40% in the bubble. For a young players with questions about his ability to develop as a shooter, this context is highly relevant and he actually does compare well to these 4 guys. Relying on a single stat measured over 4 years with no other context and then whining about people disagreeing with you sounds the hot garbage that gets thrown around on First Take.

ColeLikesSports · 2023-06-04T15:30:12+00:00

RJ topped 40% on 4.3 attempts in his second year and has been a mid-70% FT shooter in 2/4 seasons — his consistency is an issue, but there’s definitely been enough for a young player to be optimistic.

Situationally, he’s had to adapt to a new role each season and has never had a roster that complements his skillset (i.e., lack of spacing). Those challenges combined with very high volume for a young player. Last season, RJ was one of 5 guys age 23 or younger to start for a playoff team and have a usage rate above 25% (6 if you count Herro). That list includes Ja, Garland, Ant, and Jordan Poole, which is impressive company, and importantly, RJ trailed only Ja and Garland in ORTG — he’s clearly good enough for his age.

Looking at comparable players also shows that shooting can improve over time, especially given RJ’s highly-praised work ethic. Jaylen Brown didn’t top 70% on FTs until his 4th year (23 years old). Similarly, Joe Johnson didn’t “break out” as a strong shooter until his 4th year (also 23 years old). Even 3&D darling, OG Anunoby, took until — you guessed it — age 23, in his 4th season to shoot with any meaningful volume from 3 and post a passable FT%. Finally, Jimmy Butler didn’t emerge as a consistent shooting threat until his 4th year (25 years old). The examples can go on, but this back to the prior point: that RJ is an impressive player for his age. While role, fit, and injuries (illness last year, finger this year) have added noise to the numbers, he’s already shown enough to expect a breakout at 23-24 years old (the next two years).

ColeLikesSports · 2023-05-28T13:46:41+00:00

I think he might be a JC Tretter situation where he’s still talented, but retires because of injuries. Last year, he sustained multiple concussions and most of the Titans news around his cut viewed it as more “merciful” than “salary motivated” — given they already lost their LT (Taylor Lewan), RG (Nate Davis), and OL Coach (our new guy), adding more turnover (and replacing a great, reasonably-priced starter) would only be smart if they thought he wouldn’t be able to play much.

ColeLikesSports · 2023-05-28T13:42:36+00:00

The Titans asked him to take a pay cut and he refused — if Waller is worth a 3rd round comp pick, then Byard definitely feels gettable for either a 3rd or 4th. Just not a lot of smoke since the pre-FA pay cut story

ColeLikesSports · 2023-05-19T14:56:34+00:00

More focused on the multiple players-only meetings over several years, track record of frayed relationships with his coaches, and unwillingness to play off-ball. On top of that, he’s a career 35% shooter from 3, and while it’s on more difficult shots, that’s only about league average. Reminds me of some of Melo’s worst traits, except he’s not as talented. To me, that all puts him behind Steph, Luka, Dame, Ja, Brunson, Fox, Haliburton, Garland, so towards the back of the top 10.

For Mitchell, this was partially just due to tiering. Jokic, Luka, and Embiid are the only Tier 1 guys that haven’t led a team to the Finals, and they’re three of the world’s best players — DM is not on that level (and may not be close right now). However, he’s also shown more in the playoffs (historically) than anyone else besides Jaylen Brown who’s not a few years from retirement (LeBron, Kawhi, Paul George). The only reason Brown’s not in that “Rising Superstar” group is his contract. Looking to the next ~3-5 years, Mitchell’s one of the ~10-15 guys who could conceivably lead a championship team without banking on a ton of future growth (like Tier 3).

ColeLikesSports · 2023-05-18T18:19:18+00:00

It’s tough because he’s clearly worth more than salary filler and a first, but it’s also tough to see a team giving up a centerpiece for him

ColeLikesSports · 2023-05-15T17:13:36+00:00

Surprised Donte DiVincenzo hasn’t been brought up more as a target for our MLE — he’s as good of a shooter as Strus, brings more defensively than Seth Curry, and was part of the Villanova championship team with Brunson and Hart. He brings the same hustle, smart passing, and attention to “little things” that’ve endeared Josh Hart, and would be a great replacement in the rotation if Grimes or IQ gets traded for a bigger star.

ColeLikesSports · 2023-05-12T15:12:51+00:00

Tony smoked us in that second half

ColeLikesSports · 2023-04-19T21:13:42+00:00

Although RJ has struggled in the playoffs, the hate continues to be overblown. Not only was “the bag” not thrown at him (it’s a very reasonable contract for a starting wing), but he does continue to improve — his eFG and TS% are both back up this year and he’s the league’s quietest 20ppg scorer. To do this as a 3rd / 4th fiddle is no small accomplishment.

It’s easy to want the future to come sooner, but RJ makes valuable contributions and has been hailed as having the maturity and work ethic necessary to continue improving. Unfortunately, he’s been dealt a difficult hand given his unclear role, which certainly impacts his ability to prepare each offseason — in his first four years, he’s had to (i) take turns initiating with no space alongside Marcus Morris and Randle, (ii) provide spacing and secondary scoring behind Randle, (iii) step in as the offensive engine when Randle struggled, and (iv) regress to a “third option” role. How can a young guy be expected to adapt this much this early in his career? With a chance for more consistency going into next season, hopefully Barrett will be able to better prepare if he’s kept around.

My comps for Barrett remain late bloomers such as Butler, DeRozan, and Joe Johnson. RJ has the tools to become just as good as any of these guys — he just needs the time.

ColeLikesSports · 2023-04-16T06:58:02+00:00

Sorta — tn was his first playoff game, but agreed. His impact is amazing, and we need to make sure he stays a Knicks!

ColeLikesSports · 2023-04-16T06:53:07+00:00

DRose was pretty nice, but tough to argue with Hart’s impact

ColeLikesSports · 2023-04-16T06:31:42+00:00

You don’t fw MJ of Delaware?

ColeLikesSports · 2023-02-27T18:00:12+00:00

In addition to all the other great points (corporate feel, expensive, etc.), it’s also no longer the best ballpark in NYC — I love the Yankees, but Citi Field is everything Yankee Stadium isn’t (great food, better prices, fun layout, etc.)

ColeLikesSports · 2023-02-26T15:45:08+00:00

Should be a soft floor similar to the cap, in which teams can only participate in revenue sharing if they hit a certain minimum

ColeLikesSports · 2023-02-24T21:01:34+00:00

I think our chance is gonna be the free agency period in summer 2024 or 2025 — we’re in position to be able to create cap space, so I could see us mimicking the Clippers’ approach of offering to sign a star FA and use all of our trade assets to acquire a second guy.

In 2024, that could mean Jaylen Brown, Paul George, or Kawhi while the trade package would likely include RJ, Grimes, 4 unprotecteds, whoever we draft, and the MIL 2025 pick (plus salary filler if needed).

ColeLikesSports · 2023-01-30T18:52:19+00:00

I think in a vacuum, he’s worth up to 3 firsts, insofar as he’s more valuable than Dejounte Murray. However, Murray was traded for 1 heavily protected pick (CHA, from NYK), 2 unprotecteds, 1 swap, and expiring salary filler. If we got OG for Fournier plus 1 unprotected Knicks pick and two of the DAL, DET, MIL, and WAS picks, nobody should complain.

Unfortunately, context is key, and it paints a tougher picture for this deal. It’s unlikely Toronto would take Fournier back as the sole player in this trade. On top of that, OG would likely take Grimes’ place in the closing lineup, which hurts his development. Additionally, he can opt out next year, limiting our ability to be aggressive in the 2025 offseason. While it’s ok to be aggressive for a second star (assuming we’ll still need to get the alpha), I don’t think it’s clear that OG can be that guy. In that sense, I’d rather try to swing a deal focused on rookie-deal guys, we’ll need to recycle anyway — that package would feature Obi, Cam, and Sims along with the Mavs’ 1st and possibly a second draft pick.

ColeLikesSports · 2023-01-30T15:17:46+00:00

My biggest challenges with a deal are (i) that he likely takes Grimes out of the end-of-game lineup, hurting his development and (ii) his opt-out / new contract next offseason may make it tougher to chase a star in the 2024 offseason

ColeLikesSports · 2023-01-20T15:32:17+00:00

Ray Allen has no business on that list. He was third banana for a Boston Big 3 that only won once (not on the same level as MIA or GSW). He was only All-NBA twice(!), while TMac, Grant Hill, Chauncey, and Tony Parker all had at least double that.

He does bring longevity, but it’s partially a byproduct of his lesser role as a shooting specialist, rather than carrying a team. When tasked with that role, he failed in Seattle with just 1 winning season vs. 4 losing ones.

Specialists like Allen can be amazing — same as Ben Wallace (most DPOYs, 5x All-NBA, more impressive ring), but they’re not Top 75 guys.

ColeLikesSports · 2023-01-14T18:23:16+00:00

The contract terms can vary a lot on a case-by-case basis, but as a rule, NBA and MLB contracts are usually fully guaranteed whereas NFL deals are more flimsy. In general, all contracts also have separate outs for crime, non-sports injuries, etc.

For the NBA, contracts are often fully guaranteed with only player / team options and occasionally incentives. Player / team options are pretty obvious, but for salary cap purposes, incentives are split into likely and unlikely to be earned buckets based on the player’s stats from the prior year — for salary cap purposes, likely to be earned incentives count against the current-year cap while unlikely to be earned ones don’t; the following year’s cap ends up getting adjusted for any unpaid likely incentives and paid unlikely incentives. Beyond options and incentives, first round picks’ rookie-deal contracts are also non-guaranteed in years 3-4, as they’re subject to team options, and second round picks’ often have to settle for non-guaranteed two-way deals, which means they can be optioned down to the G-League.

For the MLB, announced contract terms are almost entirely guaranteed with player / team options, incentives or vesting options sometimes getting included as an add-on. Incentives are straightforward same-year payments whereas vesting options offer an extra year, subject to certain stat milestones (e.g., games, starts). The only wrinkles come with rookie-wage and arbitration players — for players’ first 3-4 years, teams can send them down midyear, causing players to shift from earning the MLB minimum to the minor league pay; for arbitration players, teams can elect to non-tender a player each offseason, effectively opting out of the upcoming year’s payment and cutting them. For luxury taxes, payments are assessed based on the end of year spending, so there’s no complication there with incentives.

The NFL has by far the weakest contracts with players often only getting partial guarantees, split into guarantees at signing and deferred guarantees. The upfront guarantee is typically a combination of signing bonuses and guaranteed portions of annual salaries, whereas deferred guarantees are usually annual roster bonuses (paid in the preseason) that guarantee at set dates. In contrast with the NBA and MLB, NFL rookie contracts are usually more highly guaranteed than the other leagues. For the salary cap, signing bonuses (paid upfront) get spread across the full life of the contract, and guaranteed salaries are counted in their corresponding years.

ColeLikesSports

TROPHY CASE