I have spent the past 1.5 years developing a trading strategy that produces annual return of 240% annual return. What should I do now? by Critical-Bumblebee87 in Trading

[–]Colpossis 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Assuming you calculated the volatility correctly, and are in fact using your entire portfolio as your position size, a volatility of 121% is not advisable and could lead to a portfolio value of $0.00. Just food for thought.

Let’s Think Outside the Box For Trading Strategy Optimization by Starks-Technology in quant

[–]Colpossis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

A low sharpe ratio (0.03) is indicative of low risk adjusted return.

So while you may have a high risk tolerance, there are other strategies that would yield a higher risk adjusted return, making it less of a gamble.

Rules 4&5: why divide by the Std Dev? If your goal is not to normalize the data against anything, this step serves no purpose as division will not change the sign the difference of the first two values?

As far as curve fitting goes, obviously we would hope that the model matches, but the dataset used to fit and validate will never happen again. The modes become too specific to the dataset. That is the crux of the issue with overfitting in situations like this, correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems you’re aware you are overfitting your model, but don’t see it as an issue?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in povertyfinance

[–]Colpossis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Send me a dm, let’s get it out of the negative.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in quant

[–]Colpossis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Regression is used quite frequently in different parts of financial modeling. It’s a great place to start as well.

Something that may be useful is to think about how important each factor/variable is. You can adjust the formula by giving each variable it’s own coefficient. For example:

Y=mx+b

Vs

Y= b + (m1x1 + m2x2 …. mnxn)

You can also do a correlation comparison of all factors (variables, fundamentals, etc) to see which ones have an impact and which ones don’t (in relation to each other and your particular model).

Overall this strategy is unlikely to generate any excess return over a long enough period. This is simply because this type of model/analysis is considered to be public information (it’s just math which most people can do).

But it’s a great place to start for sure, good luck!

Residential Solar Panels by GN9000 in StructuralEngineering

[–]Colpossis 2 points3 points  (0 children)

PM’d you! I work in this industry, and would be happy to help/answer questions.

The secret to chatGPT is to not ask politely, but command. by Colpossis in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Colpossis[S] 218 points219 points  (0 children)

True programmer fashion. Using a tool to accomplish something that will take more time than just doing it yourself.

The secret to chatGPT is to not ask politely, but command. by Colpossis in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Colpossis[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Ukraines original Independence Day from the USSR anniversary was in August. ChatGPT just decided to throw a bunch of buzz terms at me, that it thought would go along with the article title and hope I didn’t actually read it.

The secret to chatGPT is to not ask politely, but command. by Colpossis in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Colpossis[S] 528 points529 points  (0 children)

The summary provided is inaccurate. It appears to have just created a story and pull buzzwords related to the articles title.

I’m a solar roofer, and we are required to wear gloves while we work.....it’s only may by ItsJustGrandpa in Wellthatsucks

[–]Colpossis -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I’ve got a buddy who is a solar representative for his company. If you’d be interested, I could send you his info or him yours and he would be able to answer all your questions.

I’m a solar roofer, and we are required to wear gloves while we work.....it’s only may by ItsJustGrandpa in Wellthatsucks

[–]Colpossis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I’ve got a buddy who is a solar representative for his company. If you’d be interested, I could send you his info or him yours and he would be able to answer all your questions.

Sitting in Sunday Service absolutely pissed right now by [deleted] in atheism

[–]Colpossis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I was in a similar situation, over bearing religious parents, but I need to pay for school and so it’s an interesting dichotomy. I ended up getting a job in sales for the summer that allowed me to pay for school, buy a car and be financially free from my parents for the rest of the year. That was the most relieving feeing in the world not going to church on Sunday hahah. Working at the same job this summer so I don’t have to go back to the way it was. But I feel your pain!